Blue Jays vs. Brewers Picks & Predictions 6/24/22

by | Jun 24, 2022 | mlb

Toronto Blue Jays (39-30) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (40-32)

When: 8:10 p.m., Friday, June 24

Where: American Family Field, Milwaukee

Moneyline: TOR -160/MIL +140 (Find Dimeline Sportsbooks - You GOTTA get the best odds if you want to have a chance of winning long term!)

Runline: Blue Jays -1.5/Brewers +1.5

Total: 8.5

Starting Pitchers: Alek Manoah (8-2, 2.00 ERA, 0.94 WHIP) vs. Adrian Houser (4-7, 4.24 ERA, 1.43 WHIP)

Any Mound Will Do

Alek Manoah taking the mound tonight simply isn’t enough of a reason to fade the Blue Jays in this spot, as the pitcher has been lights-out regardless of whether he’s been pitching at home or on the road. His one defeat of the season did come on the road, but his ERA is still 1.80 for the year, and the Blue Jays are 2-2 for the year when he takes the mound away from Toronto.
Truth be told, the issue with Manoah on the road is the Blue Jays’ offense. When the Jays have been the winning pitcher in Manoah’s trips to the mound, it’s because they got the bats going, at least to the extent of what you can expect from their lineup. However, Toronto’s offense is kind of feast-or-famine, and right now, the Blue Jays seem to be leaning more toward the feast side, given that they have scored 32 runs in their past four contests. If Manoah gets the support needed, it’s hard to see the Brewers coming up with a win.

Just Enough of the K

If you look at just the basics for Adrian Houser’s numbers, you might not notice anything odd about the prop bets available. However, a closer look reveals that Houser’s strikeout numbers might actually be a tad low, as his total is only set at 3.5 Ks for the game. That modest number seems like a reasonable play for Houser, given that he’s managed to exceed three strikeouts in seven of his 13 starts this season, including three out of four in June.

The reason that the number is as low as the listed price is because of the opposing lineup that Houser is set to face. Toronto has long been one of the poster children for the current approach of grip it and rip it at the plate, but with the pendulum swinging to one extreme, the Jays are now viewed as the model for that approach and might even be a little too far on the side of waiting things out. For the year, the Jays have 553 strikeouts, a below-average amount for a team at the plate. Add that up, and you can see why 3.5 is the number, although I think Houser will do just enough to sneak over it.

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Piling Up the Runs

The Blue Jays’ offense is kind of a roller coaster, as they’ve been known to vary wildly in the number of runs they put up. Right now, it’s leaned toward putting up some big numbers, in part because it has had to do so in order to pick up wins. The Blue Jays really haven’t been getting the pitching and defense that they should be able to count on from the bullpen, resulting in several offensive explosions.
In its past nine games, Toronto hasn’t allowed an opponent to score fewer than four times, and the game directly before this nine-game stretch, the Jays still triggered the over by scoring 11 times against Baltimore on their own. That’s both a blessing and a curse with this team, as they’re never truly out of a game but can never feel completely safe. With the Brewers far more consistent, the over appears to be solid value.More Picks: Get our betting analysis plus free pick on tonight’s Phillies vs. Padres game >>>

Betting Trends

  • The Blue Jays have won four straight games following an off day.
  • The Blue Jays have won five straight on the road against a team above .500.
  • The Brewers are 9-3 in their past 12 against the AL East.
  • The Brewers are 5-2 in their past seven overall.
  • The over is 7-1 in the Blue Jays’ past eight games against a team above .500.
  • The over is 13-3 in the Blue Jays’ past 16 games following a win.
  • The under is 19-6-1 in the Brewers’ past 26 against the AL East.
  • The under is 10-2-4 in the Brewers’ past 16 interleague games.
  • The over is 7-2 in the teams’ past nine meetings in Milwaukee.

Weather Report

It’s supposed to be a bit of a warm night in Milwaukee, with temperatures sitting at 82 degrees at first pitch and wind blowing toward third base in from right-center at 10 miles per hour. The Brewers could close the roof with the temperatures above 80, or they might simply let the evening cool off on its own.

Dan’s Pick

With Manoah on the mound, Toronto has the advantage in the pitching matchup. Milwaukee is kind of a chameleon that plays to the style of its opponent and will hit the over against an offensive-minded team and stay under against a team that isn’t all that adept at the plate. With the Jays whacking the ball at the moment, the conditions are right for Toronto to put up some numbers and earn a win. I’ll back the Jays here. Bet your Blue Jays vs. Brewers prediction for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus up to $500 when you use bonus code PREDICTEM at Betnow Sportsbook!

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