Blue Jays vs. Phillies Total Play 9/21/22

by | Last updated Sep 21, 2022 | mlb

Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Wednesday September 21st, 6:45 ET

Location: Citizens Bank Park


Money Line: Blue Jays -105 / Phillies -115 (GTBets – Get a FREE half point every time you bet your favorite Pro football, NCAA football, NBA and college basketball team!)

Total Line: 8


Toronto: Kevin Gausman (12-10, 3.45)
Philadelphia: Zack Wheeler (11-7, 3.07)


Toronto Blue Jays: 84-64-0 SU / OU 75-69-4 / Run Line W/L 65-83-0
Philadelphia Phillies: 80-67-0 SU / OU 75-67-5 / Run Line W/L 73-74-0

The Philadelphia Phillies host the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday, September 21st at Citizens Bank Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 06:45 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Philadelphia as the favorite (-115), with an OU line set at 8.0.

Recent Form

The Toronto Blue Jays will look to pick up another big win, after they defeated Philadelphia by a score of 18-11. For the game, Toronto’s pitching staff allowed 11 runs on 15 hits. The Blue Jays benefited from an offense that generated 18 runs on 21 hits. Heading into their last game, Toronto was the betting favorite at -120.0. So far, the team has been the favorite in 126 of their games, winning at a rate of 59.0%. This game went over the posted over-under line of 8.5 runs. This result is part of a larger trend, as Toronto has had the over has hit in more than half of their games (75-69-4).

The Blue Jays come into this game with a 3-2 record over their last 5 contests. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at +1. Their hot play has been driven by an offense that typically averages 4.76 runs per game. But, over this stretch this figure has bumped up to 6.8 So far, Toronto has won over half of their 47 series played, going 26-15-6.

Philadelphia is coming off a 7 run loss to the Blue Jays. Dropping the game 18-11. In the game, the team’s pitching staff allowed a total of 21 hits, leading to 18 runs. At the plate, the Phillies scored 11 times on 15 hits. This loss came as no surprise, as Philadelphia came into the game as the underdog, getting 100.0. So far, the team has gone into 47 games as the underdog, still finding the win column at a rate of 45.0%. In terms of the over-under, the Phillies and Blue Jays combined to surpass the line of 8.5 runs. Overall, the team has gone over the betting line in over half of their games, going 75-67-5.

In their last 5 contests, the Phillies have 0 wins, going 0-5. During this time, the team has a run differential of -18. In their 5 most recent contests, the team is scoring at a rate (4.2) similar to their season-long average of 4.69. On the season, Philadelphia has won more than half of their series, going 23-21-3.

Pitching Matchup

Toronto will roll with Kevin Gausman (12-10) as their starter. So far, Gausman has put together an ERA of 3.45. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 5.68 innings. Compared to other starters, the right-hander has a high BA allowed, currently sitting at 0.274. Opposing batters are hitting for power at a below-average rate against Gausman, as he is allowing just 0.79 per 9 innings. Per game, Kevin Gausman is averaging 6.64, on a strikeout percentage of 28%. Command has been a problem for Gausman, as he is giving up 1.41 walks per outing.

The Philadelphia Phillies will send Zack Wheeler to the mound with an overall record of 11-7. In his previous outings, Wheeler has lasted an average of 6.0 innings, putting together an ERA of just 3.07. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.226. Not only does Wheeler have a strong batting average allowed, but he has also avoided giving up home runs. In his previous outings, opponents are averaging just 0.78 home runs allowed per 9 innings. On the season, Zack Wheeler has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 27.0%. This has led to an average of 6.43 K’s per game. Wheeler comes into the game hoping to improve his walk numbers, as he is averaging 2.15 free passes per outing.

Toronto vs Philadelphia History

Today’s matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and Philadelphia Phillies will be their 4th meeting of the season. So far, Toronto is leading the season series, 3-0. The over-under record in this series sits at 2-1. The average run total in these games is 9.33 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 4.67 runs. Last season, Toronto picked up the series win, 2 games to 1. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 1-2, with the average run total being 9.33 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.33 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • Toronto is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games on the road
  • Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
  • Philadelphia is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 8 of Philadelphia’s last 11 games when playing at home against Toronto

Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Heading into Wednesday’s interleague matchup between Toronto and Philadelphia, the over-under line is set at 8 runs. Even though the two teams went off for an offensive explosion in last night’s game, I expect runs to be hard to come by tonight. With Zack Wheeler and Kevin Gausman on the mound, I recommend taking the under.

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