Blue Jays vs. Yankees Pick 9/15/20

by | Sep 15, 2020 | mlb

Toronto Blue Jays (26-20) vs. New York Yankees (26-21), 9/15/20
Time: 7:05 pm ET Tues, Sept. 14
Where: Yankee Stadium
Listed Pitchers: Taijuan Walker (3-2, 2.95) vs. Deivi Garcia (1-1, 3.06)
TV: YES

Moneyline: Blue Jays +150/Yankees -160
Over/Under: 9

American League playoff contenders collide when the Blue Jays and Yankees begin a three-game AL East series Tuesday night in the Bronx. New York started hot out of the gate this season, then cooled. Toronto, on the other hand, is playing better as this season progresses. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Tuesday’s MLB betting odds opened New York and Garcia at around -165 over Toronto and Walker, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then dipped the Yanks about a nickel, to -160.

New York could also be bet at around +115, giving the run and a half on the MLB betting run line.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Set-Up

Toronto just took two of three games at home from the Mets over the weekend, winning Sunday’s series rubber match 7-3. The Blue Jays then enjoyed Monday off.

Last week Toronto took two of three games from the Yankees. So the Jays are 5-2 over their last seven games.

Meanwhile, New York just swept four games at home from Baltimore over the weekend, outscoring the Orioles 21-3 in the process. The Yankees then also had Monday off.

New York might be the streakiest team in baseball this season; they started 16-6, then went 5-15, but now they’ve won five games in a row.

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At 26-20 overall, Toronto trails first-place Tampa Bay by 3.5 games in the AL East. But with the expanded postseason field for this season, the Blue Jays would be the No. 5 seed in the American League if the playoffs started today, heading for a first-round series with Minnesota.

At 26-21, overall, New York trails the Rays by four games in the AL East. If the playoff started today, the Yankees would be the No. 7 seed in the AL, headed for a first-round series with Tampa Bay.

These teams have only met three times so far this season, last week, the Jays winning twice. They’ve got seven more games to go in the previous two weeks of this season.

Tuesday’s Starting Arms

Rookie righty Garcia is 2/3 on quality starts this season. Last Wednesday, he held these Blue Jays to two runs and five hits through a very effective seven innings, with six strikeouts against zero walks, in a 7-2 Yankees victory. And over his three starts, all coming in the last two weeks, he’s allowed seven runs – six earned – on 14 hits and two walks through 17 2/3 innings, with 18 whiffs.

New York is 2-1 with Garcia this season.

Walker is 4/8 on quality starts this season, 1/3 since coming to Toronto in a trade with Seattle a couple of weeks ago. But he’s actually been pretty good for his new team. Last Tuesday, he held these Yankees scoreless on two hits through four innings, although he also walked five in a 2-1 Jays victory. And over his three starts for Toronto, he’s allowed just two runs on 12 hits, although also nine walks, through 15 2/3 innings.

The Mariners played 2-3 with Walker this season, while the Blue Jays are 3-0 with him.

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Tuesday’s Batting Splits

Toronto is batting .247 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .321 team OBP and a .438 team slugging percentage. The Blue Jays have also been held to three runs or less four times over their last five games.

New York is batting .232/.338/.435 vs. RH pitching this season. This lineup is also still operating without two pretty big sticks in Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, both out with injuries.

The Bullpens

The Toronto bullpen owns a 3.66 ERA this season and a 1.36 WHIP.

The Yankees pen owns a 4.23 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP.

MLB Betting Trends

  • The Blue Jays are 14-10 on the road this season.
  • The Yankees are 17-7 at home this season.
  • The Blue Jays are 16-13 against right-handed starters this season.
  • The Yankees are 21-15 vs. RH starters this season.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 23-20 in Blue Jays games this season.
  • Unders are also 23-20 in Yankees games this season.
  • Totals are split 11-11 in games played at Yankee Stadium this season.
  • Unders are a combined 6-3 when Garcia and Walker start this season.

Free MLB Pick

We’re calling this pitching match-up a push, along with the splits with the sticks. We’ll give New York the edge in the bullpen comparison but that’s not enough to warrant such a high price. We love the baseball betting value here with underdog Toronto, so we’ll take the Jays for our free MLB pick for Tuesday. Don’t forget to check out our Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns TNF Pick!

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