Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox Pick

by | May 2, 2019 | mlb

Boston Red Sox (14-17 SU, 11-20 RL) at Chicago White Sox (13-15 SU, 12-16 RL)
Date: Thursday, May 2, 2019
Time: 8:10 pm ET
Where: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago
Listed Pitchers: Boston: David Price (1-2, 3.60 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) vs. Chicago: Lucas Giolito (2-0, 1.93 ERA, 0.86 WHIP)

Moneyline: Red Sox -182/White Sox +160
Over/Under: 8.5

Are the Red Sox finally out of their month-long slumber and ready to be the team that won the World Series last year? That remains to be seen, but they finished April and started May by earning their first sweep of the season at Fenway Park and just their second overall. However, the last time they swept an opponent, they promptly gave the momentum right back by dropping a pair to Detroit. Can they avoid a repeat, or will the South Siders send Boston back into misery?

MLB Betting Odds

The Red Sox opened as favorites, with the White Sox going off at +145 initially, and the line has only shifted further toward Boston following the Red Sox’s sweep of the Athletics and the White Sox splitting a pair with Baltimore. Clearly, Vegas believes Boston is ready to break out, and Chicago’s rebuilding squad won’t be able to stop it from happening like Detroit did.

Red Sox vs. White Sox Set-Up

One of these teams was expected to struggle this season. One’s struggles have been a complete shock to everyone. Nobody expected much of anything from the Pale Hose this season, as Chicago is in the midst of attempting its own Houston-style plan of blowing everything up, getting younger and trying to build a long-term contender. It’s a strategy that could pay off down the road, especially with the window of opportunity closing on the Cleveland Indians, but for now, the White Sox aren’t a strong squad. Boston, however, was expected to be in a dogfight all year to hold off the Yankees and Tampa Bay to defend their AL East and World Series crown. That hasn’t happened to date, but Boston has won five of seven and is starting to show signs of pulling itself back in the race.

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Thursday’s Starting Arms

David Price continues to be one of the top arms in the game. His problem isn’t that he’s been infeffective; it’s that his teammates have provided little to no support for him on offense. In his two losses this season, the Red Sox have scored exactly one run, wasting a solid effort from Price on each occasion. In five starts, the most he has allowed is four runs, and that hasn’t happened in any of his past three starts. The White Sox will counter with Lucas Giolito, who has received good run support to offset his rough outings. Only once, in his first appearance of the year against Kansas City, was he able to make a quality start, in an early win over Kansas City. Other than that, he got shelled by Seattle and gave up six runs (four earned) to the Yankees. In short, Giolitio isn’t exactly a first-rate pitcher or someone who you can expect to shut down Boston’s lineup.

Thursday’s Batting Splits

Boy, are these teams alike. The Red Sox and White Sox have the exact same number of total bases on the season at 391 and are nearly the same in several other offensive categories. The one area where the teams are not alike is on putting the ball in play and turning those at-bats into hits. The White Sox have a .263 batting average for the year, compared to just .239 for Boston.

The Bullpens

The Southsiders aren’t going to feel much confidence in the pen given what happened Wednesday. Any time you give up a late lead to Baltimore, something has gone seriously wrong. The Orioles stole the win and salvaged the split in the first game of a doubleheader, leaving the White Sox unable to finish off the sweep. The Red Sox haven’t been great in the pen, but they protected the lead against Oakland, and good enough to give us the L unfortunately, which is all that really matters in the end.

Totals Report

  • The under is 5-1 when the Red Sox play a road game against a team with a losing record.
  • The under is 7-1-1 in the White Sox’s past nine games that were following a win
  • The under is 4-0-1 during Price’s past five road starts.
  • The over is 7-1 in Giolito’s past eight home starts.

Free MLB Pick

I hate this price with the Red Sox. The moneyline is just too much to really get much of a return on your investment. Honestly, I’m tempted to go for the run line in this one, as it’s the only way to make much of anything on Boston in this game. The one thing that scares me is what’s going to happen with the Boston offense. If they support Price, they’ll coast to a win. If they fail to back him up with run support, this bet is going to fall apart. I’ll gamble on Boston to take the momentum on the road to Chicago and put up a multi-run victory.