Boston Red Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewers Total Pick 4/22/23
Boston Red Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Date: Saturday, April 22nd, 7:10 ET
Location: American Family Field
TV: BSWI
Money Line: Red Sox +114/Brewers -134 (Betting odds are cheaper at BAS! Why overpay?)
Total Line: 8.5
Betting Preview
Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Red Sox on Saturday, April 22nd at American Family Field. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.
Betting Odds
| ML | RL | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
 |
+114 | +1.5 | O 8.5 (-116.0) |
 |
-134 | -1.5 | U 8.5 (-105.0) |
Red Sox vs. Brewers Projected Lineup
|
Batting Order | Position |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1 | LF |
| Justin Turner | 2 | 3B |
| Rob Refsnyder | 3 | RF |
| Rafael Devers | 4 | 3B |
| Enrique Hernández | 5 | CF |
| Masataka Yoshida | 6 | LF |
| Christian Arroyo | 7 | 2B |
| Triston Casas | 8 | 1B |
| Connor Wong | 9 | C |
| Garrett Whitlock | – | SP |
|
Batting Order | Position |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich | 1 | LF |
| Jesse Winker | 2 | LF |
| Willy Adames | 3 | SS |
| Rowdy Tellez | 4 | 1B |
| William Contreras | 5 | C |
| Brian Anderson | 6 | 3B |
| Owen Miller | 7 | 1B |
| Brice Turang | 8 | SS |
| Joey Wiemer | 9 | RF |
| Wade Miley | – | SP |
Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record
Boston Red Sox: 11-10 SU / OU 14-7 / Runline 11-10
As they take on the Brewers, the Red Sox have an overall record of 11-10 and are currently last in the AL East. However, they have rattled of two straight wins. At home, Boston has a mark of 7-6 compared to 4-4 on the road. Their series record sits at 4-2.
- The Red Sox have covered the runline in two straight games and have a season-long run margin of 0.2.
- The Red Sox have been favored in 52.4% of their games and have runline records of 6-7 and 5-3 at home and on the road, respectively
- The over has hit in 67% of the Red Sox’s 21 games at 14-7.
The Brewers head into today’s game in first place in the NL Central on a record of 14-6. Over their last five games, they have put together an above .500 record of 4-1. At home, Milwaukee is 5-2 and 9-4 on the road. Their overall series record comes in at 5-1.
- The Brewers have covered the runline in 65.0% of their games and have an average run margin of 1.6
- The Brewers have been favored in 45.0% of their games and have runline records of 4-3 and 9-4 at home and on the road, respectively
- So far, the Brewers have an over/under record of just 9-11.
MLB Betting Guide
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Pitching Matchup
| Pitcher | Appearances | Started | IP | Record | ERA | WHIP | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Whitlock | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1-1 | 4.50 | 1.08 | 3 |
The Red Sox will turn to starter Garrett Whitlock who has an overall record of 1-1. After two appearances, his ERA is 4.50 and he has a K/9 figure of 0.8. ALso, he has compiled a FIP of 5.42 and an OBP of .295.
A quality start and a win were added to Garrett Whitlock’s record in his previous outing against the Angels. The Red Sox went on to win by a score of 2-1. Whitlock allowed one run and three hits during seven innings.
| Pitcher | Appearances | Started | IP | Record | ERA | WHIP | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | 3 | 3 | 18 | 2-1 | 1.50 | .94 | 1 |
Starter Wade Miley comes in with an overall record of 2-1 for the Brewers. Having made three appearances, his ERA is 1.50 and he has a K/9 figure of 0.8. Additionally, he has a FIP of 3.17 and an OBP of .250.
Wade Miley finished with a quality start and a win in his last appearance, as the Brewers took down the Padres by final score of 1-0. Miley gave up zero runs and four hits across seven innings.
Red Sox vs. Brewers Offense Outlook
So far this season, the Red Sox have hit 25 home runs and are one of the top teams in baseball in this category (8th). They are averaging 5.5 runs per game and have a collective batting average of .247. The team’s slugging percentage is .428 at home and .380 on the road.
Boston Red Sox Top Hitters vs. Lefties
| Player | BA | HR | SLG | WOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | .290 | 0 | .323 | .332 |
| Justin Turner | .300 | 1 | .500 | .396 |
| Rafael Devers | .242 | 3 | .606 | .385 |
| Rob Refsnyder | .286 | 1 | .429 | .360 |
| Adam Duvall | .556 | 0 | 1.000 | .661 |
Boston Red Sox Top Hitters: Last Five Games
| Player | BA | H | R | HR | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | .500 | 8 | 5 | 2 | .850 |
| Jarren Duran | .413 | 7 | 2 | 0 | .687 |
| Kiké Hernández | .427 | 8 | 7 | 1 | .693 |
| Triston Casas | .167 | 2 | 5 | 0 | .233 |
| Rafael Devers | .230 | 5 | 1 | 0 | .370 |
This season, the Brewers are one of the top power hitting lineups in the league, with 24 home runs (10th). This has led to an average of 4.9 runs per game and a collective batting average of .256. At home, their slugging percentage is .495, compared to .340 on the road.
Milwaukee Brewers Team Hitting Stats
| Team | Games | Runs | HR | BA | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 20 | 4.9 (12th) | 24 (10th) | .256 (8th) | .333 (8th) | .333 (8th) |
Milwaukee Brewers Top Hitters: Last Five Games
| Player | BA | H | R | HR | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brice Turang | .250 | 4 | 2 | 1 | .550 |
| Rowdy Tellez | .367 | 4 | 3 | 1 | .567 |
| Christian Yelich | .170 | 4 | 3 | 1 | .290 |
| Willy Adames | .170 | 4 | 2 | 1 | .380 |
| Owen Miller | .267 | 4 | 2 | 0 | .333 |
Free MLB Pick
The Red Sox have been consistently strong at the plate lately, scoring four or more runs in each of their last five games and in seven of their last eight. They’re set to face Brewers lefty Wade Miley, and although the Red Sox haven’t faced him as a starter since 2017, their current roster’s historical stats against Miley are impressive, with a .342 batting average over 38 at-bats. In general, Boston has performed well against left-handed pitchers, going 6-3 and boasting better team hitting metrics against southpaws – .254 BA versus .237, .348 OBP versus .309, and scoring 5.86 runs per nine innings as opposed to 5.54.
The Brewers, on the other hand, have thrived against right-handed pitching this season, compiling a .263 batting average and .345 on-base percentage while scoring 5.53 runs per nine innings. At American Family Field, they’ve averaged six runs per game, ranking third in MLB home scoring. They only have ten career at-bats against Red Sox starter righty Garrett Whitlock, and although they’ve only managed two hits, the sample size is too small to be considered significant in this analysis.
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