Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Pick

by | Jun 2, 2019 | mlb

Boston Red Sox (29-29) vs. New York Yankees (38-19), 6/2/19
Time: 7:05 pm ET Sunday, June 2
Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Listed Pitchers: David Price (2-2, 2.83 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) vs. CC Sabathia (3-1, 3.48, 1.26)
TV: ESPN

Moneyline: Red Sox -120/Yankees +110
Over/Under: 9.5

With a victory over the Red Sox Saturday, the Yankees now own a nine-series winning streak, and they shoot for the sweep of Boston Sunday night in the Bronx. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Sunday’s MLB betting odds opened Boston and Price at around -125 over New York and Sabathia, with an over/under of 9.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped that line up to -130.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Set-Up

This series was supposed to start Thursday night, but the game got rained out. The Yanks then took Friday’s game 4-1, then won Saturday 5-3. New York won as a +130 home dog Friday, then as a -130 favorite Saturday.

Also, Friday’s game played under a total of nine runs, and Saturday’s game played under 9.5.

With Saturday’s defeat, Boston now owns a four-game losing streak.

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With Saturday’s victory, New York is now 15-3 over its last 18 games.

At 38-19 overall the Yankees lead the AL East by 2.5 games over second-place Tampa Bay, with the 29-29 Red Sox now 9.5 games back.

New York now leads the season series with Boston four games to none.

Sunday’s Starting Arms

Southpaw Sabathia is making his first start in 10 days Sunday after doing a short stint on the DL with a sore knee. On the season CC is just 1/8 on quality starts, but some of that is due to a short leash. Four times this season Sabathia has gotten within three outs of a QS, only to be pulled. Last time out he gave up five runs – four earned – and six hits, including two homers, through five innings of a 7-5 Yanks win over Baltimore. But over his four starts previous to that he allowed just eight runs and 19 hits through 21 1/3 innings.

New York is 6-2 with Sabathia this season, 3-1 over his last four starts.

Over four starts against Boston last year, including one in the ALDS, Sabathia gave up 10 runs and 23 hits through 17 innings. The Yankees lost three of those four games.

Fellow lefty Price, by our strict standards, is just 3/9 on quality starts this season, but he’s been pretty good since an iffy beginning. Tuesday he held Cleveland scoreless on three hits through six innings of a game the Sox eventually lost 7-5. And over his last seven starts, he’s allowed just seven runs and 26 hits through 35 2/3 innings, with 39 strikeouts.

For the season Boston is only 3-6 with Price, and just 1-4 over his last five starts, although that’s not all his fault.

Over five starts against New York last season, including one in the ALDS, Price got bombed for 21 ER and 24 hits, including 11 dingers (!) through just 17 1/3 innings. The Sox lost four of those five games.

Sunday’s Batting Splits

Boston is batting .238/.315/.427 against left-handed pitching this season. This lineup also struck out 14 times Saturday and finished 2/14 with runners in scoring position.

New York is batting .241/.306/.383 against LH pitching this season. This lineup continues to operate without several big sticks, like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton but has still managed to score at least five runs 11 times in its last 13 games.

The Bullpens

The Red Sox bullpen has thrown 5 1/3 innings in this series, allowing three hits and zero runs. On the season this unit owns a 4.02 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP.

The Yankees pen has thrown 9 1/3 innings in this series, allowing seven hits and zero runs. This unit now owns a 3.47 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP, both of which rank in the top five in the Majors.

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Totals Report

  • Overs are 32-24 in Red Sox games this season.
  • Overs are 29-25 Yankees games this season.
  • Unders are skewed 21-10 in games played at Yankee Stadium this season.
  • Unders are 4-0 in Sox-Yanks games this season.
  • Unders are a combined 9-7 in games started by Sabathia and Price this season.

Free MLB Pick

Both starting pitchers in this match-up got kicked around by Sunday’s opponents last season, so the bullpens might play a big part here. And New York owns the edge in the comparison of those units. Also, while Boston might hold a short statistical edge with the sticks that’s not been apparent as of late. We’re taking the home-dog Yankees for our free MLB pick for Sunday.

Take the NY Yankees +110