Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Prediction 8/1/20

by | Aug 1, 2020 | mlb

Boston Red Sox (3-5) vs. New York Yankees (5-1), 8/1/20

Listed Pitchers: Zack Godley (0-0, 0.00) vs. Masahiro Tanaka (11-9, 4.45 in 2019)

Time: 7:07 pm ET Saturday, Aug. 1

Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY

TV: Fox

Moneyline: Yankees -169/Red Sox +159 (Intertops - Deposit $25 and get an extra $50 FREE! Use bonus code ROOKIE200)

Over/Under: 10

After taking the opener of this three-game AL East rivalry series Friday night, the Yankees shoot for the series victory over the Red Sox when the teams meet again Saturday night in the Bronx. The Bombers bopped three home runs Friday night, and already have 12 on the season, while Boston looks like it misses Mookie Betts. How are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Saturday’s MLB betting odds opened New York and Tanaka at around -180 over Boston and Godley, with an over/under of 10 runs. Early betting action then goosed the Yanks as much as 30 cents, to around -210.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Set-Up

New York grabbed the first game of this series Friday night 5-1, winning as a -175 favorite on the MLB betting line and covering against the run line at a price of +100. The Yanks got home runs from Aaron Judge, Gio Urshela, and Brett Gardner and 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball from starter Jordan Montgomery on their way toward victory.

Friday’s game also played under its total of 10.5 runs.

New York opened its abbreviated 2020 campaign by taking two of three games from the Nationals in DC last weekend, then swept two games in Baltimore earlier this week by scores of 9-3 and 8-6.

Meanwhile, Boston opened its season by dropping two of three games at home to the Orioles last weekend, then split four games with the Mets earlier this week, losing the first two games at home then winning two games at Citi Field by scores of 6-5 and 4-2.

Last year the Yankees took the season series from the Red Sox 14 games to five.

On a personnel note, New York is playing without closer Aroldis Chapman, as he serves off-time after testing positive for C-19 a few weeks ago.

Saturday’s Starting Arms

Tanaka is making his first start of this season; New York held him out of the first time through the rotation as he recovered from a concussion suffered a couple of weeks ago. Last year Tanaka hit 15/31 on quality starts while posting a 1.24 WHIP and a 149/40 K/BB ratio. He then went 1/3 on QS in the playoffs, allowing four earned runs through 16 innings of work against the Twins and Astros, two of Baseball’s best-hitting teams last season.

The Yankees played 20-11 when Tanaka started last year.

Over three starts last year vs. Boston, including one in a bandbox in London, Tanaka got rocked for 24 runs and 24 hits, including four homers, through eight total innings of work. The Yankees managed to win two of those games, and all three games played over on the totals.

Godley is making his first start and his second appearance for his new team. Monday night, he held the Mets scoreless on four hits through four innings of relief, with seven strikeouts against zero walks, although the Red Sox eventually lost that game 7-4.

Last year, pitching for Arizona and Toronto, Godley hit just 1/9 on quality starts, to go along with 24 relief appearances. On the whole, Godley posted a 1.50 WHIP and a 70/42 K/BB ratio.

The Diamondbacks played 4-5 when Godley started last year.

In one relief appearance for the Blue Jays, last year against the Yankees, Godley gave up three runs and five hits through three innings.

Saturday’s Batting Splits

New York batted .265 last year against right-handed pitching, with a .336 team OBP and a .484 team slugging percentage.

Boston batted .274/.345/.470 last year against right-handed pitching. But the Sox lost a key stick in their lineup over the off-season with their trade of Betts to the Dodgers.

MLB Betting Trends

  • Boston played 46-35 on the road last year,
  • New York played 57-24 at home last year.
  • Boston played 60-48 against right-handed starters last season.
  • New York played 70-41 against right-handed starters last year.
  • New York played 32-11 when favored by -200 or more last year.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 5-2 in Red Sox games this season.
  • Totals are split 3-3 in Yankees games this season.
  • Unders played 44-35 in games played at Yankee Stadium last season.
  • Overs played 10-9 in Sox-Yanks games last year.
  • Overs played 16-15 in Tanaka’s starts last year.
  • Overs played 7-2 in Godley’s starts last year.

Free MLB Pick

We give the Yankees our handicapping check-marks in the pitching match-up, in the splits with the sticks and in the bullpen comparison, even without Chapman. But we don’t care for that price. So we’ll take a chance and give the run and a half with New York against the run line.

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Kentucky will Cover if:

The Wildcats can exert superiority on the glass. Kentucky is an excellent rebounding team when it needs to be, and Kansas’ lack of a true inside presence makes the Jayhawks vulnerable to a bevy of second chances at the offensive end. If Kentucky can work the ball inside and repeatedly pound the Azubuike-less Jayhawks, Kansas will have a hard time keeping up with the Wildcats and their potent offense.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread:

These teams seem to be heading in different directions at this point in the year. At the start of the season, Kansas would have been an easy pick over a Kentucky squad that seemed utterly lost. However, the Wildcats have since found themselves and developed into the kind of team that people expect from John Calipari. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks have headed in the opposite direction as their injuries have made life much more difficult than it has been for Bill Self’s crew in some time.

Throw in that Kentucky is 11-0 at Rupp Arena this year and Kansas hasn’t been anything special away from Lawrence, and there doesn’t seem to be much of a reason to gamble on the Jayhawks going into Lexington and coming out with a result. Kentucky is the better team at this point and should come away victoriously.

Play: Take Kentucky -6.5