Boston vs. Houston ALCS Game 6 Top Bets

by | Oct 22, 2021 | mlb

Boston Red Sox (98-74) vs. Houston Astros (101-70)

When: 8:10 p.m., Friday, October 22

Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston

Moneyline: BOS -110/HOU -110 (BetNow - Deposit $100 to $1000 and receive a MASSIVE 100% REAL CASH bonus!)

Runline: Red Sox +1.5/Astros -1.5

Total: 9

Starting Pitchers: Nathan Eovaldi (11-9, 3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) vs. Luis Garcia (11-8, 3.30 ERA, 1.17 WHIP)

Compounded Mistake

The Red Sox gambled with Eovaldi in relief in this series, and now they might be about to learn the same painful lesson the Dodgers did in Game 4. Los Angeles found out the hard way that starters are not relievers and trying to make that happen usually leads to disaster in the long term. In their case, the Dodgers turned to Max Scherzer in relief and got the save that got them past the Giants, but it came at the cost of Game 2 of the NLCS as Scherzer’s arm was shot from the unexpected work.

That worked out just fine for the Dodgers, as there’s no NLCS at all without Scherzer’s work, but the Red Sox were nowhere near as fortunate with their strategy. Eovaldi pitched well enough to win Game 2 for Boston, but he got hammered when the Red Sox brought him back three days later in relief in Game 4, a game they didn’t have to get in order to win the series — and didn’t get, as the Astros hammered the Red Sox 9-2.
Now they’ve got to bring Eovaldi back three days after his arm betrayed him the first time, and if Scherzer was any indication, this could be a big problem. Eovaldi is only 31 as opposed to Scherzer’s 37, so his arm might be able to handle the change in workload better. But if Game 4 was any indication, that won’t be the case.

Picking the Lock

While the Red Sox try to work their way out of a mess they created, the Astros seem to have figured out how to shut down the Red Sox’s bats. The Astros saw this series about to spiral out of control, in large part because they overworked their pitching staff, but the pitchers came through in a big way and held the Red Sox to just three runs in the final two games at Fenway.
Pitching hasn’t been the way that Houston has gotten the job done for most of the season, but the Astros can usually hold their own on the mound. If they’ve figured out how to close down Boston, there’s little reason to think the Red Sox can win twice in Houston.

Foot on the Gas

While the Red Sox were getting overmatched by the Astros’ arms, Houston’s hitters kept whacking away. The over has hit in all five games of the ALCS, and that’s in large part because the Astros are averaging 6.2 runs per game to this point in the series. Houston has stepped it up in the past two games, especially coming up with 18 runs to take any doubt out of both games and give the Astros’ bullpen margin for error.

The Astros have been the best hitting team all year long, and with Eovaldi coming back on less than short rest, they’ve got an opportunity to knock Boston out in the early innings. The Astros will have a loud, boisterous crowd on hand for this one, and they’ll need to use that to overwhelm the Red Sox and never let Boston think it’s still in this series.

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Betting Trends

  • The Red Sox are 4-1 in their past five games following a loss.
  • The Red Sox are 20-6 in their past 26 Friday games.
  • The Astros are 6-1 in their past seven games as a favorite.
  • The Astros are 8-3 in their past 11 games overall.
  • The over is 10-1 in the Red Sox’s past 11 games overall.
  • The over is 5-1 in the Red Sox’s past six games as an underdog.
  • The over is 11-1 in the Astros’ past 12 games.
  • The over is 6-1 in the Astros’ past seven home games.
  • The Red Sox are 2-5 in the past seven matchups in Houston.
  • The over is 7-0 in the past seven meetings.

Weather Report

The Astros might opt to close the roof here, as temperatures will be pushing 80 degrees at first pitch. If the roof stays open, the wind will blow out to left-center at eight miles per hour.

Dan’s Pick

With Eovaldi coming in on short rest, the Astros have the chance to knock Boston out of the game in the early innings, which makes Houston first five a strong bet. For the game, I’ll also take the Astros, as I think their offense is in much better shape and should keep hammering away at an overworked Boston staff. Did you know there’s a sportsbook that offers favorites at cheaper prices and pays more on underdogs? —> BetAnySports! You only have to lay -105 on football/basketball games too! Be wise! Pay LESS at BAS Sportsbook!