Braves vs. Cubs Runline Pick 6/18/22

by | Last updated Jun 18, 2022 | mlb

Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs
Date: Saturday, June 18th, 02:20 ET
Location: Wrigley Field
TV: Bally Sports Southeast
Money Line: Braves -165 / Cubs +139 (Bovada)
Total Line: 8.0


Atlanta: Kyle Wright (7-3, 2.57)
Chicago: Justin Steele (1-5, 4.33)

Braves Projected Lineup

Adam Duvall LF
Orlando Arcia 2B
Marcell Ozuna LF
Ronald Acuña Jr. RF
William Contreras C
Austin Riley 3B
Michael Harris II CF
Matt Olson 1B
Dansby Swanson SS
Kyle Wright P

Cubs Projected Lineup

Nico Hoerner SS
Jason Heyward RF
Patrick Wisdom 1B
Rafael Ortega LF
Jonathan Villar 3B
Willson Contreras C
Ian Happ LF
Frank Schwindel P
Christopher Morel CF
Justin Steele P


Atlanta Braves: 37-28-0 SU / OU 35-27-3 / Run Line W/L 35-30-0
Chicago Cubs: 24-40-0 SU / OU 31-30-3 / Run Line W/L 32-32-0

The Chicago Cubs host the Atlanta Braves on Saturday, June 18th at Wrigley Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 02:20 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Atlanta as the favorite (-165), with an OU line set at 8.0.

Recent Form

The Braves will look to rebound from a close, 1-0 loss to the Cubs. Even in the loss, the pitching staff gave up just 1 run while allowing 3 hits. On offense, the Braves finished with 0 runs on 2 hits. This defeat came despite being favored at -182.0. Through 55 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 64.0%. Together, the Braves and Cubs stayed below the over-under line set at 8.5 runs. Even after this game, Atlanta’s overall over-under record sits at 35-27-3.

The Braves come into this game with a 4-1 record in their last 5 contests. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +17. Their hot play has been driven by an offense that typically averages 4.74 runs per game. But, over this stretch, this figure has bumped up to 6.4. Atlanta’s overall series record is just 8-8-5.

The Cubs are coming off a tight 1-0 win over the Braves. For the game, the pitching staff held the Braves to 0 runs on 2 hits. With their 3 hits, the Cubs could only muster 1 run. This was a good win for the Cubs, as they were underdogs at 155.0 on the moneyline. In their 42 games as the underdog, their straight-up win percentage sits at 36.0%. With this result, the Cubs and Braves combined to fall below the over-under line of 8.5 runs. Chicago still has an above .500 over-under record at (31-30-3).

In their last 5 contests, the Cubs have just 1 win, going 1-4. This recent slump is backed by a scoring margin of -25 over their last 5 games. In their 5 most recent contests, the team is scoring at a rate of 3.2, similar to their season-long average of 4.20. Chicago has a below .500 series record of just 5-11-5.

Pitching Matchup

Atlanta will roll with Kyle Wright (7-3) as their starter. Through 12 appearances, Wright has an ERA of just 2.57 while averaging 6.1 innings per appearance. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just .195. Home runs have not been an issue for Wright, as he is giving up just 0.49 HR/9. Per game, Kyle Wright is averaging 6.67 K’s per game, on a strikeout percentage of 27.0%. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 3.05 walks per outing.

Justin Steele gets the start for the Cubs, with an overall record of 1-5. Steele gets the start with an ERA of 4.33. On average, he has lasted 4.5 innings per appearance. Compared to other starters, the left-hander has a high BA allowed of 0.252. Opposing batters are hitting for power at a below-average rate against Steele, as he is allowing just 0.33 home runs per 9 innings. Steele has accumulated a strikeout percentage of 21.0% and a per-game average of 4.17. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 4.33 walks per outing.

Atlanta vs Chicago History

For the season, the Atlanta Braves and Chicago Cubs will be playing their 5th game of the season. So far, the teams have each won 2 times. The over-under record in this series sits at 1-3. The average run total in these games is 11.86 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 2.5 runs. Going back to last year, Atlanta won the season series, 5 games to 2. In these 7 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 5-2. Last year, the Braves and Cubs averaged 11.86 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 6.14 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chi Cubs’s last 9 games when playing Atlanta
  • Chi Cubs is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta

Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs Prediction

In yesterday’s series opener, Atlanta and Chicago engaged in a pitchers duel, with the Cubs coming out on top. We could be in for a similar type of game, as Kyle Wright has a WHIP of just 1.03, and Justin Steel has pitched well over his last 2 outings. However, I give the Brave’s offense a better chance of bouncing back. I like Atlanta on the runline.

Free MLB Pick: Braves -1.5 Runline

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