Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
Wednesday, October 28, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Tropicana Field
The Brewers are -147 favorites on the moneyline (Rays +123), -1.5 on the run line at +125, with the total at 6.5. My play is Brewers ML (-147).
Game 4 ended at almost 12:30 in the morning. Game 5 starts about 19 and a half hours later, and only one of these teams has named a starter.
That’s the whole handicap. Milwaukee hands the ball to the presumptive NL Cy Young winner on normal rest. Tampa Bay hands it to whoever’s arm still works after a 12-inning, seven-pitcher marathon. The Rays wrote a great story Tuesday night. Tonight they pay for it.
Let’s give the Rays their flowers first. Down to their last three outs after rookie Cooper Pratt’s go-ahead homer in the 12th, the Rays got a throwing error from Joey Ortiz and four straight singles, capped by Ben Williamson’s pinch-hit walk-off. Great night. It doesn’t change the history they’re up against: four teams before them forced a Game 5 after falling behind 3-0 in the World Series, and none made it to Game 6.
The Miz on four days’ rest is not a problem. Jacob Misiorowski led the majors with a 1.80 ERA, and the numbers that strip out defense and luck say it was no fluke. The worry is rest, since all three of his October starts came with at least five days off. But he has a 2.03 ERA in his six regular-season starts on four days’ rest. “It’s nothing new,” he said. He also handled this lineup in Game 1, allowing one run in five innings after opening with a 103.5 mph fastball, the fastest pitch in World Series history.
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Tampa Bay’s pitching staff is running on fumes. Kevin Cash didn’t name a starter after Game 4, and it’s easy to see why. All five of his rotation arms have pitched in the last four nights. Nick Martinez was lined up for tonight, then threw two innings in relief Tuesday. Drew Rasmussen coming back on three days’ rest looks unlikely given his injury history. That points to a bullpen game. “I’m going to guess most guys are going to say they’re capable of an inning or more,” Cash said. Maybe so. But his freshest arms are Cole Sulser, Steven Matz and Garrett Cleavinger, and all three had an ERA above 4.30 this season. That’s not who you want facing Jackson Chourio, whose 10 hits tie Babe Ruth’s 1928 record for the most through four World Series games.
Milwaukee’s pen is in better shape than Tuesday made it look. Pat Murphy used Trevor Megill for just five pitches and Abner Uribe for 19, so both are ready. Aaron Ashby needed 31 pitches for seven outs and should be available. He hasn’t allowed an earned run in 18 innings this October and just broke Andrew Miller’s record for scoreless innings by a reliever in a single postseason. That matters because Misiorowski hasn’t pitched past the fifth inning in any of his three playoff starts. If he gives Murphy five, the bridge to the finish is short and well built.
The bats keep pointing the same way. Brewers hitters had 12 of the 13 hardest-hit balls in Game 4, and they’ve outscored Tampa Bay 21-11 in the series. The Rays are hitting .220 this postseason, and they don’t walk or hit for power enough to make up for it. And their best hitter is banged up. Caminero hurt his left foot running first to third in the 12th and had to come out for a pinch runner. “If my foot is broken, I’ll play tomorrow,” he said. I believe him. I just don’t trust a slugger with one homer this postseason to catch up to 103 mph on a sore foot.
Where this goes sideways. Misiorowski runs up pitch counts. If the Rays foul him out of the game early, Murphy is in his bullpen by the middle innings again. The Brewers have had to bounce back from a loss only once in the last 35 days, so we don’t know much about how they handle a gut punch like Tuesday’s. Three of the four games in this series were decided by one run, so one bad hop can swing it. The price has also moved against us, from the -128 to -140 range at the open to around -147 now. And a bullpen game isn’t always a disaster when every reliever only needs three outs at full effort.
How I see it playing out. Misiorowski gives Murphy five strong innings. Chourio and company get to the back of Tampa Bay’s depth chart by the sixth, and Uribe, Megill and Ashby close the door. Brewers 4, Rays 2, and the champagne finally comes out in St. Pete. I’d play the moneyline up to -160. If you want a better price, the run line at +125 makes sense too, given what’s left in Tampa Bay’s bullpen.
The Pick: Brewers ML (-147)
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