Braves vs. Mets Game 1 Odds & Total Pick

by | May 3, 2022 | mlb

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets

Date: Tuesday, May 3rd, 03:10 ET

Location: Citi Field

TV: SNY

Money Line: Braves +100 / Mets -110 (BetOnline - Fastest bitcoin payouts on the web!)

Total Line: 8

STARTING PITCHING

Atlanta: Charlie Morton (1-2, 7.0)
New York: Carlos Carrasco (1-1, 4.09)

Braves Projected Lineup

CF Adam Duvall
LF Travis Demeritte
2B Ozzie Albies
C Travis d’Arnaud
SS Dansby Swanson
3B Austin Riley
LF Marcell Ozuna
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson

Mets Projected Lineup

LF Mark Canha
1B Dominic Smith
3B Eduardo Escobar
RF Starling Marte
C James McCann
2B Jeff McNeil
1B Pete Alonso
CF Brandon Nimmo
SS Francisco Lindor

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Atlanta Braves: 11-13-0 SU / OU 12-11-1 / Run Line W/L 10-14-0
New York Mets: 16-8-0 SU / OU 10-11-3 / Run Line W/L 15-9-0

The New York Mets host the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday, May 3rd at Citi Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 03:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places New York as the favorite (OFF), with an OU line set at OFF.

Recent Form

Heading into today’s game, Atlanta will be looking to tack on another win after taking down the NY Mets by the score of 5-2. Heading into this game, Atlanta was the betting underdogs with a moneyline of -110.0. Through 20 games as the favorite, the team has won at a rate of 50.0%. On offense, Atlanta’s lineup put together a total of 8 hits, while the pitching staff allowed 2 runs on 5 hits. Together, the Braves and NY Mets combined to surpass the over-under betting line set at 6.5 runs. This result being part of a larger trend, as Atlanta as the over has hit in more than half of their games (12-11-1).

The Braves are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 3-2 over their last 5 games. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at 4. In their last 5 contests, Atlanta is averaging 4.0 runs per game, right in line with their season average of 3.92. Atlanta’s overall series record is just 2-4-2.

The Mets will be looking to move on from a tough loss to Atlanta by the score of 5-2. This was a disappointing loss for the Mets, as they were favored to win at -110.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 21 games, winning at a rate of 71.0%. For the game, New York’s staff gave up 5 runs on 8 hits, while on offense, New York came up with 5 hits leading to 2 runs. In terms of the over-under, the Mets and Atlanta combined to surpass the line of 6.5 runs. So far, New York has an over-under record of just 10-11-3.

The Mets come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 2-3 over their last 5 games. During this time, the team has a run differential of -4. Even with their recent struggles, the offense has been steady, averaging 4.2 runs per game, right in line with their season average of 4.58. On the season, New York has won more than half of their series, going 7-1-0.

Pitching Matchup

For the Braves, Charlie Morton gets the start. So far, he has put together a record of 1-2. To date, Morton has an ERA of 7.0, while lasting an average of 4.5 innings per appearance. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.296. In addition to a high batting average allowed, opposing batters have been able to drive the ball with power against Morton, averaging 1.5 homers per 9 innings pitched. Up to this point, Morton’s has a strikeout percentage of 17.4% and a per 9 average of 8.0. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.75 walks per outing.

For the Mets, Carlos Carrasco gets the start. So far, he has put together a record of 1-1. Leading up to the game, Carrasco is hoping to bring down an ERA of 4.09. So far, he is averaging 5.5 innings per outing. Even with a high ERA, Carrasco has been able to limit base runners, with a batting averge allowed of just 0.202. On average, opponents are averaging 0.82 home runs against the right-hander. A strength of Carlos Carrasco’s game is his ability to generate swings and misses, striking out batters at a rate of 25.6%. Throughout the season, his strong command has led to an average of just 1.0 walks per contest.

Atlanta vs New York History

So far, the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves have met up 1 time, with Atlanta leading the season series, 1-0. Through 1 game, the series’ over-under record is 1-0, with the average run total sitting at 7.68 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 3.0 runs. Going back to last year, Atlanta won the season series, 10 games to 9. In these 18 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 7-11. Last year, Atlanta and New York averaged 7.68 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.47 runs per contest.

Betting Trends

  • Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
  • Atlanta is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing NY Mets
  • NY Mets is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
  • NY Mets is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets Prediction

Look for the Braves and Mets to each have big scoring nights against two struggling pitchers. After an outstanding 2021 campaign, Charlie Morton has yet to find his groove. I expect the Mets to bounce back from only scoring 2 runs to have no problem putting up runs. I recommend taking the over.

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