Braves vs. Padres Odds, and Predictions- Friday, May 17th

by | Last updated May 17, 2024 | mlb

San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves
Date: Friday, May 17th, 7:20 ET
Location: Truist Park
Money Line: Padres +181/Braves -215
Total Line: 8.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Atlanta Braves and the Padres on Friday, May 17th at Truist Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

ML RL Total
SD +181 +1.5 O 8.5 (-105)
ATL -215 -1.5 U 8.5 (-117)

There does appear to be a chance of light rain in Atlanta on Friday, as the Braves and Padres are set to face off at Truist Park at 7:20 PM ET. The over/under line is currently at 8.5 runs, and the Braves are favored on the money line (-215). The Padres have a record of 22-24, while the Braves have won three straight and are 26-14 overall.Max Fried will be on the mound for the Braves, while the Padres are starting Matt Waldron. San Diego is 3rd in the NL West, while the Braves are 2nd in the NL East. BSSE will be televising this matchup.

Padres vs. Braves Projected Lineup

Player Batting Order Position
Jurickson Profar 1 LF
Fernando Tatis Jr. 2 RF
Jake Cronenworth 3 1B
Manny Machado 4 DH
Xander Bogaerts 5 2B
Donovan Solano 6 3B
Ha-Seong Kim 7 SS
José Azocar 8 CF
Luis Campusano 9 C
Matt Waldron SP
Player Batting Order Position
Ronald Acuña Jr. 1 RF
Ozzie Albies 2 2B
Austin Riley 3 3B
Matt Olson 4 1B
Marcell Ozuna 5 DH
Orlando Arcia 6 SS
Michael Harris II 7 CF
Travis d’Arnaud 8 C
Jarred Kelenic 9 LF
Max Fried SP

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

San Diego Padres: 22-24 SU / OU 24-21 / Runline 24-22
Atlanta Braves: 26-14 SU / OU 12-26 / Runline 22-18

Padres Records & Recent Play

The Padres will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Rockies with an 8-0 loss. San Diego was actually the heavy favorite at -246 going into the game but fell behind big early, as the Rockies scored three times in the 2nd.

Offensively, the Padres only had four fewer hits than the Rockies but didn’t score a run. Donovan Solano was the lone bright spot, going 2/3 with two singles. The Padres also wasted a big game from Michael King, who went ‘th innings, giving up six earned runs.

San Diego is on the road today to take on the Braves, and they are looking to snap a three-game losing streak, as they are 22-24 overall. The Padres are seven games behind the Dodgers in the NL West, and they are 3rd in the division. So far, they are 12-13 in divisional matchups.

At home, the Padres are just 10-16 this year, but they have been better on the road at 12-8. San Diego has won two straight series on the road, and their overall series record is 8-6-2 this year. As the road underdog, the Padres are 7-5 this season.

San Diego has been a strong bet on the run line on the road this season, going 16-4, including covering in their last three games. Their average run margin on the road is +1.5, compared to -1.0 at home. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 12-6 vs. the run line, compared to 12-16 as the favorite. Their average run margin in wins is +3.8, compared to -3.3 in losses.

The San Diego Padres have been on a three-game over streak, and their games have had an average of 9.1 runs per game. Their over/under record on the season is 24-21, and when the over/under line has been set at 8.5, they have gone 8-4. The over/under line for today’s game against the Atlanta Braves is 8.5 runs. So far this season, only 15.2% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs or higher. Their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs.

Braves Records & Recent Play

Heading into their last game vs. the Cubs, the Braves closed out the series with a 7-1 loss. Atlanta was the heavy favorite at -189. Things really got away from the Braves in the 3rd inning, as the Cubs scored three runs in the inning. Atlanta’s offense scored their only run in the 2nd.

Charlie Morton got the start for the Braves and took the loss. He only lasted three innings, giving up three earned runs on five hits. Zack Short had a good day at the plate, going 2/4 with a run scored.

With a record of 26-14, the Braves are 2nd in the NL East, trailing the Phillies by 2.5 games. So far, they have gone 10-5 against other teams in the NL East. The Braves kick off their series vs. the Padres today, and they are 15-5 at home this season.

Atlanta has been really good as the favorite this season, going 26-11 in those games. As for their record as the underdog, they are 0-3. The Braves have won three straight series, and they closed out their series vs. the Cubs with a win. Currently, they are 6-4 over their last 10 games.

When betting the run line, the Braves have been a solid play, going 22-18 overall. They are 10-10 at home and 12-8 on the road. As the favorite, they are 20-17 vs. the run line, while they are 2-1 as the underdog. Their average run margin for the season is +1.2 runs per game.

Despite the Braves’ recent under streak, their games have had an average of 8.4 runs per game this season. Their over/under record is 12-26, and they have gone under in seven of their last ten games. The over/under line for today’s game against the Padres is 8.5 runs, which is lower than their season average of 9 runs per game. Their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs in 10 of their 40 games this season.

Pitching Matchup

Right-hander Matt Waldron gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Braves on the road. He has made eight starts this year and has a record of 1-5 with an ERA of 5.49. Waldron’s WHIP for the season is 1.45, and opponents are batting .256 off him this year. In his last outing, he went 5 1/3 innings, giving up two earned runs, six hits, and two homers. Waldron took the loss in that outing. Before that, he had lost three straight starts. Waldron’s only win came on April 24th against the Rockies, where he went six innings and gave up just one earned run.

Max Fried will be looking to build off his last outing, where he didn’t give up a run. In that May 11th start vs. the Mets, he went seven innings, picking up the win. Looking at his overall numbers, Fried has made eight starts and has a record of 3-1. His ERA for the season is 3.57, along with a WHIP of 1.04. Opposing batters are hitting just .183 off the left-hander this season. Fried has one complete game shutout and four quality starts this year. So far, he has a BB/9 figure of 3.38 compared to 7.35 strikeouts per nine innings.

Padres vs. Braves Offense Outlook

So far this season, the Padres are averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 10th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.4 runs per contest. As a team, the Padres are batting .253, which is 7th in the league, and they are also among the league leaders in home runs. The Padres have been pretty good at avoiding strikeouts, as they have the 8th fewest strikeouts in the league.

Jurickson Profar and Jake Cronenworth have been two of the Padres’ top power threats this season, with Profar batting .322 with seven homers and Cronenworth also having seven homers but with a batting average of .265. Profar also comes into the game on a five-game hitting streak. Fernando Tatis Jr. has gone deep eight times this season but is batting just .256.

Marcell Ozuna has been on a tear of late, going 13/30 in his last nine games with three homers and nine RBIs. Overall, he is batting .327 with 12 home runs, which is 2nd in the league. Ozuna has also driven in 41 runs, which is the best mark in the MLB right now. Matt Olson and Travis d’Arnaud are also tied for 2nd on the team with five homers apiece.

As a team, the Braves are 6th in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They are also one of the league’s top home run hitting teams and have the 5th best team batting average in the league. Currently, Ozuna is on a nine-game hitting streak, and Olson has hits in four straight games.

Free Padres vs. Braves MLB Pick

Our predicted final score for this game is 6-5 in favor of the Braves, which would make taking the Braves on the money line a good option. However, with a payout of -215, we are recommending taking the over, as we have the Braves and Padres combining for 11 runs, and the line is currently sitting at 8.5.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Max Fried finishing with four strikeouts, and as for Matt Waldron, we have him finishing with five strikeouts and finishing with the eighth most earned runs among starters today.

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