Braves vs. Phillies Total Pick 7/27/22

by | Last updated Jul 27, 2022 | mlb

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Wednesday July 27th, 12:35 ET

Location: Citizens Bank Park


Money Line: Braves -145 / Phillies +122 (WagerWeb – Football is coming! They offer 20 point teasers!)

Total Line: 8.5


Atlanta: Charlie Morton (5-4, 4.21)
Philadelphia: Kyle Gibson (5-4, 4.69)

Braves Projected Lineup

Marcell Ozuna LF
Robinson Canó 2B
Eddie Rosario LF
Ronald Acuña Jr. RF
Travis d’Arnaud C
Austin Riley 3B
Michael Harris II CF
Matt Olson 1B
Dansby Swanson SS
Charlie Morton P

Phillies Projected Lineup

Alec Bohm 3B
Bryson Stott SS
J.T. Realmuto C
Nick Castellanos RF
Didi Gregorius SS
Matt Vierling CF
Darick Hall 1B
Kyle Schwarber LF
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Kyle Gibson P


Atlanta Braves: 59-40-0 SU / OU 51-45-3 / Run Line W/L 51-48-0
Philadelphia Phillies: 50-47-0 SU / OU 51-44-2 / Run Line W/L 50-47-0

The Philadelphia Phillies host the Atlanta Braves on Wednesday, July 27th at Citizens Bank Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 12:35 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Atlanta as the favorite (-145), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

Atlanta looks to keep things rolling after taking down the Phillies by the score of 6-3. On their way to the victory, the pitching staff gave up 3 runs on 5 hits. The Braves lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 10 hits, leading to 6 runs. In the matchup, Atlanta was favored at -125.0 on the moneyline. Through 85 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 66.0%. Together, the Braves and Phillies combined to surpass the over-under betting line set at 7.5 runs. Atlanta now has an over-under record of 51-45-3.

In the Braves’ last 5 games, they are above .500, going 3-2. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at +5. In their last 5 contests, Atlanta is averaging 5.2 runs per game, right in line with their season average of 4.77. So far, Atlanta has won over half of their 31 series played, going 15-10-6.

Philadelphia will look to move on from a 3-run loss to the Braves, falling by the score of 6-3. On their way to giving up 6 runs, the Phillies staff allowed 10 hits. At the plate, the Phillies only came through for 3 runs on 5 hits. This loss came as no surprise, as Philadelphia came into the game as the underdog, getting 105.0. In their 34 games as the underdog, their straight-up win percentage sits at 47.0%. The Phillies and Braves went over the run total line set at 7.5 runs. For the season, the team’s over-under record is 51-44-2.

The Phillies come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 1-4 over their last 5 games. During this time, the team has a run differential of -19. The team’s offense is partly to blame for their recent slump, as they have averaged just 3.2 runs over their last 5 game. Philadelphia has a below .500 series record of just 13-15-3.

Pitching Matchup

The Atlanta Braves will send Charlie Morton to the mound with an overall record of 5-4. To date, Morton has an ERA of 4.21 while lasting an average of 5.48 innings per appearance. So far, Morton has a batting average allowed of 0.227. Opposing batters have been able to drive the ball with power against Morton, averaging 1.3 homers per 9 innings pitched. In terms of strikeouts, Charlie Morton has a strong strikeout percentage of 27.0%, including a per-game average of 6.37. Command has been a problem for Morton, as he is giving up 3.44 walks per outing.

Kyle Gibson gets the start for the Phillies, with an overall record of 5-4. To date, Gibson has an ERA of 4.69 while lasting an average of 5.33 innings per appearance. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.251. Opposing batters have been able to drive the ball with power against Gibson, averaging 1.25 homers per 9 innings pitched. In terms of strikeouts, Kyle Gibson has a strong K% of 19.0%, including a per game average of 4.21. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.57 walks per outing.

Atlanta vs Philadelphia History

Today’s matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies will be their 10th meeting of the season. Atlanta has the lead in the series at 5-4. Through 9 games, the series over-under record is 7-2, with the average run total sitting at 8.37 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 3.56 runs. Last season, Atlanta picked up the series win, 10 games to 9. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 9-10, with the average run total being 8.37 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 3.53 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 5 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 5 games when playing Atlanta

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Heading into Wednesday’s NL East showdown, the over-under line is set at 8.5 runs. Even though this game features two established starting pitchers, I expect there to be a lot of scoring. Both Charlie Morton and Kyle Gibson have been up and down throughout the season. I recommend taking the over.

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