Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Best Bet 9/11/22

by | Last updated Sep 11, 2022 | mlb

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers
Date: Saturday September 11th, 02:10 ET
Location: American Family Field
TV: Bally Sports Wisconsin
Money Line: Reds +230 / Brewers -290
Total Line: 8.0


Cincinnati: Justin Dunn (1-2, 4.82)
Milwaukee: Brandon Woodruff (9-4, 3.41)

Reds Projected Lineup

Spencer Steer 1B
Jose Barrero SS
TJ Friedl LF
Nick Senzel CF
Kyle Farmer 3B
Chuckie Robinson C
Donovan Solano 1B
Jonathan India 2B
Jake Fraley LF
Justin Dunn P

Brewers Projected Lineup

Jace Peterson 3B
Omar Narváez C
Kolten Wong 2B
Hunter Renfroe RF
Andrew McCutchen LF
Garrett Mitchell CF
Rowdy Tellez 1B
Christian Yelich LF
Willy Adames SS
Brandon Woodruff P


Cincinnati Reds: 56-80-0 SU / OU 69-65-3 / Run Line W/L 65-72-0
Milwaukee Brewers: 73-66-0 SU / OU 68-64-8 / Run Line W/L 58-82-0

The Milwaukee Brewers host the Cincinnati Reds on Saturday September 11th at American Family Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 02:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Milwaukee as the favorite (-290), with an OU line set at 8.0.

Recent Form

The Reds come into this matchup having suffered a 4-run loss to Milwaukee (5-1). On their way to giving up 5 runs, the Reds staff allowed 6 hits. The Reds ended the game with just 1 run on 1 hit. The loss came as Cincinnati was the betting underdog, getting 190.0 on the moneyline. Together, the Reds and Milwaukee stayed below the over-under line set at 8.5 runs. Even after this game, Cincinnati’s overall over-under record sits at 69-65-3.

In the Reds’ last 5 games, they are above .500, going 3-2. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at +3. Cincinnati’s offense heads into action averaging 4.6 runs per game in their last 5 contests. Similar to their season average of 4.29. Cincinnati’s overall series record is just 15-21-8.

The Milwaukee Brewers are coming off a big win over the Reds by a score of 5-1. In the win, the pitching staff allowed just 1 run on 1 hit. At the plate, the Brewers scored 5 times on 6 hits. In the game, Milwaukee was able to take care of business as they were the favorite at -230.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 115 games, winning at a rate of 56.9%. With this result, the Brewers and Reds combined to fall below the over-under line of 8.5 runs. Even still, Milwaukee games have still gone over the betting total over half of the time, at 68-64-8.

In their last 5 games, the Brewers have put together a record of 3-2. Milwaukee has managed to play above .500 baseball, despite their last 5-scoring margin sitting at -3. Milwaukee has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 3.4 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 4.49. On the season, Milwaukee has won more than half of their series, going 20-18-8.

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Pitching Matchup

Cincinnati will roll with Justin Dunn (1-2) as their starter. To date, Dunn has an ERA of 4.82 while lasting an average of 4.67 innings per appearance. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.257. Home runs have been an issue for Dunn, as he is allowing an average of 2.89 per 9 innings pitched. Up to this point, Dunn has a strikeout percentage of just 17.0% and a per-game average of 3.33. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 4.5 walks per contest.

In today’s game, Milwaukee turns to starter Brandon Woodruff. For the year, he has a record of 9-4. Woodruff gets the start with an ERA of 3.41. On average, he has lasted 5.5 innings per appearance. Across his previous outings, opponents are batting 0.222 against Woodruff. Woodruff is giving up home runs at a rate similar to the league average, allowing 1.11 per 9 innings. Overall, Brandon Woodruff has struck out 28% of the batters he has faced. On average, he averages 6.41 K’s per game. Woodruff comes into the game hoping to improve his walk numbers, as he is averaging 2.67 free passes per outing.

Cincinnati vs Milwaukee History

For the season, the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers will be playing their 15th game of the season. Milwaukee holds the edge in the series at 9-5. Through 14 games, the series over-under record is 9-5, with the average run total sitting at 8.16 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 4.07 runs. Milwaukee won last year’s head-to-head series, grabbing 10 wins to 9. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 8-10. Last year, the Reds and Brewers averaged 8.16 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 3.53 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
  • Cincinnati is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee’s last 6 games at home
  • Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Heading into Sunday’s matchup between Cincinnati and Milwaukee, the Brewers are the heavy favorite on the moneyline. With Brandon Woodruff on the mound, look for the Reds bats to struggle once again. I recommend taking the Brewers on the runline.

Free MLB Pick: Brewers Runline