Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Odds, Analysis, Free Pick 10/1/23

by | Last updated Oct 1, 2023 | mlb

Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Date: Sunday, October 1st, 3:15 ET
Location: Busch Stadium
Money Line: Reds -123/Cardinals +103
Total Line: 9

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Reds on Sunday, October 1st at Busch Stadium. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

ML RL Total
CIN -123 -1.5 O 9 (-104)
STL +103 +1.5 U 9 (-117)

Reds vs. Cardinals Projected Lineup

Batting Order Position
Jonathan India 1 2B
TJ Friedl 2 CF
Spencer Steer 3 LF
Jake Fraley 4 DH
Christian Encarnacion-Strand 5 3B
Joey Votto 6 1B
Tyler Stephenson 7 C
Elly De La Cruz 8 SS
Will Benson 9 RF
Hunter Greene SP

Batting Order Position
Lars Nootbaar 1 CF
Tommy Edman 2 2B
Paul Goldschmidt 3 1B
Jordan Walker 4 RF
Richie Palacios 5 LF
Luken Baker 6 DH
Andrew Knizner 7 C
Jose Fermin 8 3B
Masyn Winn 9 SS
Miles Mikolas SP

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Cincinnati Reds: 82-79 SU / OU 79-81 / Runline 96-65
St. Louis Cardinals: 70-91 SU / OU 78-77 / Runline 77-84

For the season, the Reds have put together a record of 82-79, including going just 4-6 over their last ten games. In the NL Central standings, they are 3rd, trailing by nine games. This year, they have gone 38-43 at home and 44-36 on the road with an overall series mark of 21-22-7.

  • The Reds have covered the runline in 59.6% of their games and have an average run margin of -0.2
  • The Reds have been favored in 26.7% of their games and have runline records of 45-36 and 51-29 at home and on the road, respectively
  • So far, the Reds have an over/under record of just 79-81.

Heading into today’s action, the Cardinals’ record of 70-91 has them sitting 5th in the NL Central. Currently, they are 21 games out of the division lead. Over their last five games, they are 2-3 and have a road and home record of 36-45 and 34-46, respectively. St. Louis’ overall series record sits at 19-26-5.

  • The Cardinals have covered the runline in 47.8% of their games and have an average run margin of -0.7
  • The Cardinals have been favored in 47.2% of their games and have runline records of 35-45 and 42-39 at home and on the road, respectively
  • Through 161 games, the over has hit in half of the Cardinals’ games at 78-77.

Pitching Matchup

Pitcher Appearances Started IP Record ERA WHIP HR
Hunter Greene 21 21 107 4-6 4.71 1.39 19

Across his 21 outings, Hunter Greene has a record of 4-6 and ERA of 4.71. One thing to note, is that he has given up a home run in each of his last three appearances. As he takes the mound, his WHIP sits at 1.39 with an OBP allowed of .315. Greene’s strikeout to walk ratio is 146/47.

Lasting just three innings and giving up seven runs on eight hits in his last outing, Hunter Greene will be looking to bounce back today. He ended up with a no-decision in the Reds’ 11-7 win over the Guardians.

Pitcher Appearances Started IP Record ERA WHIP HR
Miles Mikolas 34 34 194 8-13 4.82 1.33 25

Entering with a record of 8-13, Miles Mikolas is making his 35th appearance of the season. So far, he has an ERA of 4.82 on a batting average allowed of .279. On the road, he is 6-6 with a 4.30 ERA and 2-7 at home on an ERA of 6.41. For the season, teams have a slugging percentage of .448 against him.

The last time Miles Mikolas took to the mound, he secured a quality start and a win for his team, who won by a final score of 4-1 against the Brewers. Mikolas gave up one run and five hits across seven innings.

Reds vs. Cardinals Offense Outlook

This season, Cincinnati is ranked 8th in the league for runs scored, averaging 4.8 runs per game. They have hit a combined total of 197 home runs, which puts them 13th in the MLB. Their current batting average of .249 is 11th in the league. On the road, their batting average sits 9th, compared to 19th at home.

Cincinnati Reds Team Hitting Stats

Team Games Runs HR BA OBP SLG
Reds 161 4.8 (8th) 197 (13th) .249 (11th) .327 (7th) .327 (7th)

Cincinnati Reds Top Hitters: Last Five Games

Player BA H R HR SLG
Elly De La Cruz .346 6 5 2 .771
Noelvi Marte .425 8 4 2 .775
Jonathan India .312 5 5 1 .625
Christian Encarnacion-Strand .150 3 5 2 .450
TJ Friedl .250 4 4 1 .500

The Cardinals have played 161 games and are ranked 18th in the league with 4.4 runs per game. St. Louis ranks 11th in home runs, having gone deep 209 times. Their average is .249, including .234 on the road and .255 at home.

St. Louis Cardinals Top Hitters vs. Righties

Nolan Arenado .282 21 .484 .343
Paul Goldschmidt .257 20 .441 .347
Jordan Walker .283 12 .451 .349
Lars Nootbaar .270 11 .450 .360
Willson Contreras .254 15 .445 .350

St. Louis Cardinals Top Hitters: Last Five Games

Player BA H R HR SLG
Tommy Edman .330 7 5 1 .530
Lars Nootbaar .217 4 4 1 .367
Richie Palacios .233 4 2 1 .500
Luken Baker .167 2 2 0 .233
Jordan Walker .220 5 3 0 .300

Free MLB Pick

Even though the Reds were officially eliminated from Wild Card contention, I expect them to finish off their season with a win. For this NL Central battle, I’m taking the Reds to come out on top and like them on the moneyline.

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