Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins Pick – 6/3/18

Cleveland (1st – AL Central) at Minnesota (3rd – AL Central)
Where: Target Field
When: June 3rd, 2018 2:10PM ET
Moneyline: Indians -110 / Twins +100
Over/Under: 9
By expert handicapper Rich Crew

The Indians will look to find the answer to stopping the Twins offense that has scored 22 runs in the first three games of this four-game set. The oddsmaker at 5Dimes has Cleveland as a small -110 favorite over Minnesota with the total line on the MLB betting board at 9 runs.

Minnesota has taken the last two and if not for a tie breaking run in the eighth inning by Cleveland in the opener they could be looking to sweep today. The Twins have taken three of the five matches this season splitting a pair on home field back in Mid-April. Three of the five games played this season between these two clubs has gone UNDER the closing total line.

On the season the Indians are an unimpressive 12-16 on the road but they have picked it up over their last 12 with a 6-6 W/L record. The Twins are .500 at home this season splitting their 26 games.

Pitching Match-up

Mike Clevinger (R): The Cleveland righty has rebounded from a poor outing in Houston with a strong 6 2/3 inning performance against the Chicago White Sox. On the road this season he’s been excellent with a 2-1 record in four starts and a brilliant 1.61 earned run average. This will be his fifth career start against the Twins with all four of them coming in 2016 and 2017. He wasn’t dreadful in any of the outings, but he didn’t make it through five innings in any of the four starts combining for 16 2/3 innings pitched allowing seven runs.

Kyle Gibson (R): There is no doubt that Gibson is pitching at the highest level in his career recording four quality starts the last five times that he’s been handed the ball. That said, he hasn’t had his best stuff at home. On the campaign Gibson is 0-2 at home with a bloated WHIP of 1.80 and an embarrassing 5.76 ERA. He didn’t impress in four starts last season against the Indians allowing 10 earned runs over 20 innings pitched.

Betting Trends

  • Cleveland is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 8 of Cleveland’s last 10 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Cleveland’s last 16 games when playing Minnesota
  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Minnesota’s last 13 games
  • Minnesota is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota’s last 7 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Minnesota’s last 16 games when playing Cleveland
  • Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Cleveland

Public Money

The public is backing the road favorite Indians and reflected in Cleveland -122 line that recreational betting site Bovada has posted on their board which is .12 higher than 5Dimes. Our reporting has 71% of the crowd is on the Indians. The total is a mixed bag with the public showing a small lean (54%) to the UNDER.

Indians vs. Twins Pick 6/3/18

Look, the line on the Indians isn’t unreasonable and I know many will be taking them today. I won’t be one of them. The total is the way to go here. Cleveland starter Clevinger has held the projected starters to a combined batting average of .229 on 57 plate appearances allowing 11 hits and 9 walks. Those stats alone would probably signal a play, but looking deeper we see that of the 11 hits six went for extra bases with the Minnesota batters picking up three doubles and three home-runs. Additionally, Clevinger gave up nine walks and continued control issues today would increase his chances of a poor performance tenfold. It also doesn’t hurt that Minnesota is tearing the cover off of the ball scoring seven or more runs in five of their last six. Kyle Gibson’s overall home metrics are appalling this campaign with a 5.76 earned run average in five starts and this stat isn’t inflated from one bad outing with him recording a 20% QS rate at Target Field this season. Want more? The Indians batters have hit a combined .354 against Gibson with seven of the projected batters hitting over .300 against him. The wind is forecast to be blowing out and we get OVER favoring Jerry Layne (8-2 vs. the O/U line) behind home plate.

Rich Crew’s Pick: Take the OVER 9