Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox Pick 4/12/21

Cleveland Indians (5-3) vs. Chicago White Sox (4-5)
When: 8:05 p.m., Monday, April 12
Where: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago
Moneyline: CLE +115/CHW -135 (Get better lines with Dimeline Betting)
Runline: Indians +1.5/White Sox -1.5
Total: 8.5

Starting Pitchers: Triston McKenzie (0-0, 2.45 ERA. 1.64 ERA) vs. Carlos Rodon (1-0, 0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP)

Strikeout Artists?

If these pitchers hold to form, get ready for a fair amount of punch-outs. McKenzie and Rodon have com-bined to pitch 8.2 innings this season and have a combined 14 strikeouts between them. However, there’s a question as to whether the performance was more their own doing or the situations they faced. In the case of McKenzie, he was pitching in relief and did a fine job of it against Kansas City, but he’ll be throwing as a starter for the first time this season, as Cleveland has decided to start using a five-man rotation as the sched-ule returns to a more normal look.

Rodon was excellent in five innings in Seattle, but the key part of that sentence was “in Seattle.” The Mari-ners have been rather punchless this season. Cleveland has been hitting a lot better than the Mariners as of late, which could present a different challenge for the Chicago lefty. Then again, Cleveland has also been fac-ing Detroit and Kansas City, neither of whom are known for their run prevention abilities.

Taste for Thievery

The stolen base is quickly becoming a lost art in the era of sabermetrics, but the White Sox are showing no hesitation in taking the extra base this season. In eight games, the Pale Hose have turned singles into doubles by swiping seven bases, fourth in the majors. Chicago’s had to make its own breaks on the basepaths be-cause the White Sox usually aren’t hitting the ball in places that are conducive to extra bases. Forty-nine of their 70 hits have been singles, but the Sox have managed to score 48 runs this year, tying them for fifth in the majors.

At the other end of the scale is Cleveland, which has barely bothered to use speed on the basepaths. Franmil Reyes’ stolen base on Sunday marked the first time all season that Cleveland had stolen a base all season.

Hot vs. Cold

Something’s got to give in the first five innings because these teams are polar opposites. The White Sox have gone 6-2-1 to the over in the first five, while the Indians have played under or a push for the first five in every game they’ve played in 2021. These teams have also been total opposites as far as leading after the first five, as the White Sox have been one of the best bets in baseball to lead or tie after five innings. Only once have the Pale Hose been behind after five in their first nine games.

Meanwhile, Cleveland entered the weekend 0-4-1 on the Moneyline in the first five, but facing the Tigers at home tends to cure many issues. In all three games, the Indians had the lead after five innings.

Betting Trends

• The Indians are 8-3 in their past 11 following a win.
• The Indians are 9-26 in their past 35 as a road underdog.
• The White Sox are 17-5 in their past 22 home games.
• The White Sox are 2-14 in their past 16 games against a right-hander.
• The under is 4-1 in the Indians’ past five games.
• The under is 9-2 in the White Sox’s last 11 games against the AL Central.
• The Indians have won six in a row against the White Sox.
• The under is 8-3 in the past 11 matchups.

Weather Report

It’s going to be cool and windy on the South Side of Chicago, with winds blowing 12 miles per hour to the west on a 55-degree day. That could make it tough to hit the under here, as the winds will be blowing out to dead left-center.

Dan’s pick

I don’t really want to touch the total here, given Cleveland’s recent outburst of power. Instead, I’m leaning toward taking a shot with the Tribe as a road dog. Cleveland has mastered the White Sox as of late, and the Pale Hose are much better against lefties than they are against righties. The same is true of the Indians, but Chicago’s sending a left-hander to the slab, and Cleveland isn’t. I’ll go with the live dog here and back the Indians.