Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers Pick 9/20/19

Colorado Rockies (66-87) at Los Angeles Dodgers (98-55)
When: 10 p.m., Friday, September 20
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles (BetNow)

Moneyline: COL +290 /LAD -320
Runline: Rockies +1.5/Dodgers -1.5
Total: 8.5

Starting Pitchers: Peter Lambert (3-6, 6.98 ERA, 1.71 WHIP) vs. Clayton Kershaw (14-5, 3.05 ERA, 1.05 WHIP)

Do The Collapse

Remember when Colorado actually appeared to be in the thick of the race for the NL wild card? Yeah, those days are long gone. Since July 14, when the Rockies were at .500, they’ve gone 20-41 and given themselves a real chance to finish with the second-worst record in the National League (thank you, Marlins). Why has it gone so wrong for the Rocks? Simple: They can’t win on the road, and they can’t stop anyone. Col-orado is actually above .500 in the thin air of Denver, but the Rockies sport an ugly 26-49 record outside of the Mile High City, good for second-worst in the NL (again, thank you, Marlins). Making matters worse is just how many runs Colorado has conceded this year. The Rockies’ offense ranks fourth in the NL at run production, behind only the Dodgers, Atlanta, and Washington, but their defense and pitching have been horrendous, and not even the Marlins can save them in this category. Colorado has conceded 910 runs this season, a dubi-ous level that only Baltimore has exceeded.

Back on Track

Clayton Kershaw hasn’t been himself for the past two weeks, but he seemed to get things figured out again in a win over the Mets. The Dodgers gave him support rather than expecting him to do it all, and Kershaw re-sponded with a four-hit performance that got Los Angeles moving in the right direction. The Dodgers’ hurler hadn’t been pitching poorly, but in his past three starts, Kershaw wasn’t getting the one and two-run games he had done so many times before. The win over the Mets marked the first time since August 14 (yet again, thank you, Marlins) that Kershaw had produced a performance of two runs or less, giving the Dodgers a big reason to breath a sigh of relief. But with Kershaw moving forward, a new problem seems to be arising: what to do with Kenley Jansen. The Dodgers’ closer has struggled badly this year, and the problems reared their head again in a come-from-ahead loss to the Rays. Los Angeles doesn’t have the patience for something to go wrong this year, not with the Dodgers having lost the past two World Series and seeing their window closing soon.

Learning To Perform

With the Rockies’ season lost, it’s a good thing for them that Peter Lambert is getting regular starts. He’s struggled badly this year, but wins aren’t going to help Colorado do a thing this year, to it’s more about learn-ing for Lambert this year. However, his struggles have been very noticeable. Over his past ten starts, only twice has he held the opposition to less than two runs, and both of those came against decided non-powers San Diego and Cincinnati. His past two starts against the Padres are an encourag-ing sight, but that doesn’t mean he’s ready for the challenge of facing Los Angeles for the second time this month. His first instance came on September 2, and it was a disaster, as he gave up six runs in a mere 1 2/3 innings.

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The Historicals

This series has been one-way traffic this season, as the Dodgers’ record is 13-3 against the Rockies and 6-0 against Colorado at Dodger Stadium. Overall, Los Angeles has won 11 consecutive games against Colorado at home, including a tiebreaker last year that won the NL West for the Dodgers.

Betting Trends

• The Rockies are 3-13 in Lambert’s 16 starts.
• The Rockies are 0-7 in Lambert’s past seven road starts.
• The Dodgers are 48-12 in their past 60 home games against a right-hander.
• The over is 5-0 in Lambert’s past five road starts against a team above .500.
• The over is 5-1 in the Dodgers’ past six series openers.
• The Rockies are 7-21 in their past 28 meetings with Los Angeles.

Weather Report

An 80-degree day is a typical evening for Southern California, and that’s what’s likely to occur here, per the forecast.

Dan’s pick

So I’ve got one of the worst road teams in the NL tossing a rookie against one of the best home teams using its ace? Hmmm, which way do you think I’m going to go here? This game is one of those that seems obvious because it is. Sure, Lambert could pitch the game of his life, but based on what he and Kershaw have done, this looks like a comfortable win for Los Angeles. The Dodgers should extend their home win streak over the Rockies to 12, and I’ll put it on the runline to give it some juice and wager that at a sportsbook that offers reduced juice on totals on run line bets.