Ben Brown’s 0.98 WHIP and one home run allowed all season sit on one side of this matchup — Carmen Mlodzinski’s 1.40 WHIP and a fastball hitters are squaring up consistently sit on the other. The total is posted at 8 with under juice at -105, treating these two arms as near-equals in a park that runs 4% below neutral.
Ben Brown vs. Carmen Mlodzinski: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
The Cubs arrive at PNC Park carrying an eight-game losing streak and a roster held together with athletic tape — four relievers on the IL, a cold offense posting a .725 OPS on the season. The instinct is to fade them entirely. But that framing misses the actual lever in this game: Ben Brown is one of the better pitching stories in the NL right now, and his 2.09 ERA over 38.2 innings isn’t a mirage. The question isn’t whether the Cubs win or lose — it’s whether the combined run total stays under 8.
Pittsburgh counters with Carmen Mlodzinski, a 4-3 starter who has been serviceable but carries real command concerns — a 1.40 WHIP signals consistent baserunner traffic. The Cubs’ struggling lineup may bail him out, but the gap between these two arms is the entire thesis here.
The under at -105 is essentially the market shrugging. That flat juice signals genuine uncertainty — and when elite suppression data points one direction in a pitcher-friendly park, near-even odds are where you find value.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: Monday, May 25, 2026 | 1:35 PM ET
- Venue: PNC Park | Park Factor: 0.96 (pitcher-friendly)
- TV: MLB.TV, Marquee Sports Net
- Probable Starters: Ben Brown (CHC) vs. Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT)
- Moneyline: Chicago Cubs -116 / Pittsburgh Pirates -102
- Run Line: Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (-178) / Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+146)
- Total: 8 (Over -115 / Under -105)
Why This Number Is Close
The market has this game posted at 8 with nearly even juice on both sides. That’s the market correctly acknowledging two things: the Cubs’ offense has been historically cold, and Mlodzinski’s command issues introduce enough wild-card variance to keep the over in play. You can understand why the books aren’t pushing this total lower — the Cubs are 2-8 in their last ten, and Pittsburgh’s lineup features legitimate offensive weapons in Brandon Lowe (.898 OPS, 13 HR) and Oneil Cruz (.767 OPS, 11 HR). The over case is real.
But here’s where the market is slightly wrong: it’s treating Mlodzinski and Brown as roughly equivalent contributors to the run environment. They aren’t. Brown’s peripherals — a 0.98 WHIP, one home run allowed in 38.2 innings, 40 strikeouts against just 12 walks — represent a suppression profile that belongs in a different category than Mlodzinski’s. The numbers project a combined 8.5 runs, just half a run above the posted total. At -105 juice, you’re not paying much for that edge, and the park factor of 0.96 nudges the environment further in your direction. The projected total barely clears 8 — and that’s before accounting for how Brown actually shapes his innings.
What Separates the Pitching
Start with Brown’s arsenal, because it drives everything. His knuckle curve sits at 36.4% usage and generates a 44.5% whiff rate with an xwOBA-against of just .237 — that’s a genuine wipeout pitch. He pairs it with a four-seam fastball at 96.6 mph (36.9% usage, .297 xwOBA against) and a sinker at 96.8 mph. The result is a starter who generates soft contact when he doesn’t get the swing-and-miss: 9.31 K/9, one home run surrendered all season. Against a Pittsburgh lineup that profiles as a contact-and-gap offense, Brown’s ability to limit hard contact matters. Horwitz sits at a .312 xwOBA against right-handers, Gonzales at .392 xwOBA vs. RHP with a microscopic 0.6% barrel rate, and Jared Triolo at the bottom of the order — none of these hitters generate the kind of exit velocity that punishes pitchers even when they make mistakes.
Mlodzinski presents a different picture. His four-seam fastball carries a .383 xwOBA against and his sinker is even worse at .417 — hitters are squaring both up consistently. The split-finger is his best weapon at .278 xwOBA and a 29.4% whiff rate, but it accounts for only 28.2% of his pitches. The concern is what happens when the Cubs — even in their current funk — see elevated fastballs over the plate. Michael Conforto carries a .471 xwOBA overall and .479 against right-handers. Michael Busch sits at .381 xwOBA vs. RHP with a 7.3% barrel rate. These aren’t hitters who will punish Mlodzinski for six innings, but they represent real exposure if his command slips early. The gap between these arms is significant — Brown creates punch-out or weak-contact innings; Mlodzinski creates traffic.
The Pushback
The legitimate argument against the under starts with Mlodzinski’s 1.40 WHIP and where it could lead. Baserunners accumulate, and if the Cubs’ top of the order gets on base early — Hoerner has gone .556 in limited BvP exposure against Mlodzinski — one swing from Conforto or Busch can change the run total quickly. That’s not a far-fetched scenario given Mlodzinski’s sinker (.417 xwOBA against) invites hard contact.
The deeper concern, though, is Brown’s bullpen safety net. With Hunter Harvey, Porter Hodge, and Riley Martin all on the IL — alongside starter Cade Horton (60-Day IL, elbow) — the Cubs’ relief corps is genuinely thin. If Brown exits before the seventh, the Cubs are leaning on a patchwork group that could surrender the cushion in a hurry. Pittsburgh’s lineup isn’t elite, but Cruz (.472 xwOBA vs. RHP) and Lowe (.448 xwOBA vs. RHP) are dangerous enough against secondary arms to flip the run total.
There’s also the simple reality that Pittsburgh scored four runs in Toronto on Sunday and has a legitimate offensive core even if Brown keeps them quiet through six. The Mlodzinski command concern cuts both ways — a high-walk, high-traffic start can suppress scoring if the Cubs don’t capitalize, but it also keeps the inning alive long enough for one swing to blow the total open.
Joe Jensen’s Pick
I’m landing on the under 8 (-105). The value here is straightforward: you’re getting Ben Brown — 2.09 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, one home run all season — against a Pittsburgh lineup that profiles as a contact-and-gap group without the barrel rates to punish him. PNC Park runs 4% below neutral. The numbers project 8.5 combined runs, which is close, but at -105 you’re barely paying for the juice. That’s a legitimate edge when the pitching separation between these two starters is as clear as it is.
The Cubs moneyline is where I’m drawing the line. The -116 technically clears the juice threshold, but a team on an eight-game skid with a depleted bullpen is not a clean vehicle for the pitching thesis — the under is. Fading Chicago’s relief corps while backing their starter is a contradictory position. The under lets you ride Brown’s suppression without committing to a win probability on a team that’s lost 12 of 14.
Bet: Under 8 (-105) — 2 units
