Cubs vs. Reds 5/23/22 Lines & Predictions

by | Last updated May 23, 2022 | mlb

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds

Date: Monday, May 23rd, 06:40 ET

Location: Great American Ball Park

TV: Bally Sports Ohio

Money Line: Cubs -118 / Reds -102 (Get better lines >>> It pays to bet for less!)

Total Line: 9.0


Chicago: Drew Smyly (1-5, 3.97)
Cincinnati: Vladimir Gutierrez (0-5, 8.65)

Cubs Projected Lineup

Patrick Wisdom LF
Jonathan Villar 3B
Alfonso Rivas 1B
Seiya Suzuki RF
Frank Schwindel 1B
Andrelton Simmons SS
Willson Contreras C
Ian Happ LF
Rafael Ortega RF
Drew Smyly P

Reds Projected Lineup

TJ Friedl CF
Alejo Lopez 2B
Tyler Naquin RF
Matt Reynolds SS
Colin Moran 1B
Tyler Stephenson C
Tommy Pham LF
Joey Votto 1B
Kyle Farmer SS
Vladimir Gutierrez P


Chicago Cubs: 16-24-0 SU / OU 18-19-3 / Run Line W/L 20-20-0
Cincinnati Reds: 12-28-0 SU / OU 23-16-1 / Run Line W/L 18-22-0

The Cincinnati Reds host the Chicago Cubs on Monday, May 23rd at Great American Ball Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 06:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Chicago as the favorite (-118), with an OU line set at 9.0.

Recent Form

The Chicago Cubs head into today’s matchup after picking up a close win over Arizona by the score of 5-4. Arizona came up with 8 hits leading to 8 runs against Chicago’s pitchers. The Cubs benefited from an offense that generated 5 runs on 8 hits. In the matchup, Chicago was favored at -132.0 on the moneyline. So far, the team has been the favorite in 14 of their games, winning at a rate of 36.0%. With the OU line set at 7.5 runs, the Cubs and Arizona combined to go over this total. Even with this game going over the total, Chicago still has an over-under record of just 18-19-3.

In their last 5 games, the Cubs are below .500, at 1-4. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -7. In their last 5 contests, Chicago is averaging 4.0 runs per game, right in line with their season average of 4.15. Chicago’s overall series record is just 4-7-2.

The Reds are coming off a tight 3-2 win over the Blue Jays. In the win, the pitching staff allowed just 2 runs on hits 4 hits. At the plate, the Reds only came through for 3 runs on 6 hits. Despite being the underdogs, getting 210.0 on the moneyline, the Reds still picked up the win. In their 33 games as the underdog, their straight-up win percentage sits at 30.0%. Combined, the Reds and the Blue Jays’ run total fell below the OU line of 8.5 runs. Even still, Cincinnati games have still gone over the betting total over half of the time, at (23-16-1).

In their last 5 games, the Reds have put together a record of 3-2. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at 1. Cincinnati has played above .500 baseball, despite averaging just 2.8 runs in their last 5 games. This is a drop in production compared to their season average of 3.88. Cincinnati has a below .500 series record of just 3-8-2.


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Pitching Matchup

Drew Smyly gets the start for the Cubs, with an overall record of 1-5. To date, Smyly has an ERA of 3.97 while lasting an average of 4.86 innings per appearance. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the left-hander, with a batting average of 0.288. Home runs have been an issue for Smyly, as he is allowing an average of 1.59 per 9 innings pitched. Overall, he is averaging 3.7142857142857144 per game, on a K rate of 18.0%. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 1.85 walks per contest.

Vladimir Gutierrez gets the start for the Reds, with an overall record of 0-5. So far, Gutierrez has put together an ERA of 8.65. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.33 innings. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander, with a batting average of 0.317. Home runs have been an issue for Gutierrez, as he is allowing an average of 2.08 per 9 innings pitched. Up to this point, Gutierrez has a strikeout percentage of just 15.0% and a per game average of 3.16. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 6.58 walks per outing.

Chicago vs Cincinnati History

Today’s game between Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds is their first matchup of the year. Last year, Cincinnati won the season series 11-8. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 7-11-1, with the average scoring differential sitting at 2.84 runs. Last year, the two teams combined to average 8.84 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • Chi Cubs is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
  • Chi Cubs is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati’s last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati’s last 5 games at home

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds Prediction

In a matchup between two NL Central squads, I see the Cubs picking up the road win. In his last 3 starts, Reds starter Vladimir Gutierrez is allowing over 5 runs per appearance. The only time Cincinnati won during one of his starts came because of a 14 run offensive outburst. I like the Cubs on the moneyline.

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