Cubs vs. Reds Analysis & Moneyline Bet

by | Last updated Oct 3, 2022 | mlb

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds
Date: Monday October 3rd, 06:40 ET
Location: Great American Ball Park
TV: Marquee Sports Network
Money Line: Cubs +112 / Reds -132
Total Line:7.5


Chicago: Hayden Weneski (3-1, 2.33)
Cincinnati: Hunter Greene (4-13, 4.66)

Cubs Projected Lineup

Franmil Reyes RF
Alfonso Rivas 1B
Nico Hoerner SS
Zach McKinstry 3B
Seiya Suzuki RF
Christopher Morel 2B
Willson Contreras C
Ian Happ LF
Esteban Quiroz 2B
Hayden Weneski P

Reds Projected Lineup

Alejo Lopez 2B
Spencer Steer 3B
Aristides Aquino RF
Jose Barrero SS
Kyle Farmer 3B
Chuckie Robinson C
Donovan Solano 1B
Jonathan India 2B
Stuart Fairchild LF
Hunter Greene P


Chicago Cubs: 72-86-0 SU / OU 65-81-13 / Run Line W/L 83-76-0
Cincinnati Reds: 60-98-0 SU / OU 75-79-5 / Run Line W/L 74-85-0

The Cincinnati Reds host the Chicago Cubs on Monday, October 3rd at Great American Ball Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 06:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Cincinnati as the favorite, with an OU line set at 7.5.

Recent Form

The Chicago Cubs are coming off a 7 run win over Cincinnati by a score of 8-1. On their way to the victory, the pitching staff gave up 1 run on 7 hits. The Cubs lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 12 hits, leading to 8 runs. In the matchup, Chicago was favored at -185.0 on the moneyline. So far, the team has been the favorite in 55 of their games, winning at a rate of 47.0%. This game went over the posted over-under line of 6.5 runs. On the season, Chicago’s over-under record is 65-81-13.

The Cubs will look to continue their strong play, as they are 5-0 over their last five contests. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +17. In their last 5 contests, Chicago is averaging 4.4 runs per game, right in line with their season average of 4.02. Chicago’s overall series record is just 22-24-5.

Cincinnati is coming off a 7 run loss to the Cubs. Dropping the game 8-1. In the game, the team’s pitching staff allowed a total of 12 hits, leading to 8 runs. The Reds’ offense ended the game with just 1 run on 7 hits. This loss came as no surprise, as Cincinnati came into the game as the underdog, getting 165.0. In their 121 games as the underdog, their straight-up win percentage sits at 38.0%. In terms of the over-under, the Reds and Cubs combined to surpass the line of 6.5 runs. So far, Cincinnati has an over-under record of just 75-79-5.

The Reds come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 0-5 over their last 5 games. During this time, the team has a run differential of -17. The team’s offense is partly to blame for their recent slump, as they have averaged just 1.4 runs over their last 5 game. Cincinnati has a below .500 series record of just 15-27-8.

Pitching Matchup

The Chicago Cubs will send Hayden Wesneski to the mound with an overall record of 3-1. In his previous outings, Miley has lasted an average of 5.4 innings, putting together an ERA of just 2.33. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.2. Wesneski is giving up home runs at a rate similar to the league average, allowing 1.0 per 9 innings. Wesneski has had trouble generating strikeouts, averaging just 5.4 K’s per game on a K rate of 25.0%. Throughout the season, he has avoided walking batters, allowing just 2.0 per contest.

In today’s game, Cincinnati turns to starter Hunter Greene. For the year, he has a record of 4-13. Greene gets the start with an ERA of 4.66. On average, he has lasted 5.18 innings per appearance. Greene comes into the game with a batting average allowed of 0.227. Opposing hitters are hitting home runs at an above-average rate against Greene. This year, he is allowing 1.81 HRs per 9 innings pitched. On the season, Hunter Greene has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 31.0%. This has led to an average of 6.78 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 3.53 walks per outing.

Chicago vs Cincinnati History

For the season, the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds will be playing their 17th game of the season. Chicago has the lead in the series at 10-6. The over-under record in this series sits at 8-5. The average run total in these games is 8.84 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 4.81 runs. Dating back to last season, the Reds picked up 11 wins compared to 8, taking the season series. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 7-11, with the average run total being 8.84 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 2.84 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cincinnati’s last 14 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati’s last 8 games on the road
  • Chi Cubs is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
  • Chi Cubs is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Heading into Monday’s NL Central matchup between Chicago and Cincinnati, the Reds are the slight favorite on the moneyline. Although the Cubs have been playing well of late, look for Hunter Greene to continue his strong stretch of pitching against the division rival. I recommend taking the Reds on the moneyline.

Free MLB Pick: Reds Moneyline