Runline Bet: Tigers vs. Mariners Pick

by | Last updated Oct 3, 2022 | mlb

Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners
Date: Monday October 3rd, 09:40 ET
Location: T-Mobile Park
Money Line: Tigers +200 / Mariners -245
Total Line: 7


Detroit: Bryan Garcia (1-0, 3.29)
Seattle: George Kirby (8-4, 3.21)

Tigers Projected Lineup

Harold Castro 2B
Jeimer Candelario 3B
Spencer Torkelson 1B
Victor Reyes RF
Eric Haase C
Javier Báez SS
Miguel Cabrera 1B
Riley Greene CF
Akil Baddoo LF
Bryan Garcia P

Mariners Projected Lineup

Jarred Kelenic CF
Jesse Winker LF
Carlos Santana 1B
Mitch Haniger RF
Cal Raleigh C
Eugenio Suárez 3B
Adam Frazier 2B
J.P. Crawford SS
Ty France 1B
George Kirby P


Detroit Tigers: 64-93-0 SU / OU 60-85-13 / Run Line W/L 75-83-0
Seattle Mariners: 87-70-0 SU / OU 72-79-7 / Run Line W/L 82-76-0

The Seattle Mariners host the Detroit Tigers on Monday, October 3rd at T-Mobile Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 09:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Seattle as the favorite (OFF), with an OU line set at OFF.

Recent Form

Heading into today’s game, Detroit will be looking to tack on another win after taking down Minnesota by the score of 5-2. On their way to the victory, the pitching staff gave up 2 runs on 3 hits. The Tigers benefited from an offense that generated 5 runs on 6 hits. Heading into their last game, Detroit was the betting favorite at -105.0. So far, the team has been the favorite in 28 of their games, winning at a rate of 54.0%. Combined, the Tigers and Minnesota fell short of the over-under betting line of 7.5 runs. With this result, Detroit’s over-under record dropped even further, moving to just 60-85-13.

The Tigers come into this game with a 4-1 record over their last 5 contests. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at +5. A key to their recent success has been an offense averaging 4.0 runs per game, compared to their season average of 3.40. Detroit’s overall series record is just 15-28-8.

Seattle is coming off a 7-run loss to the Athletics. Dropping the game 10-3. On their way to giving up 10 runs, the Mariners staff allowed 12 hits. At the plate, the Mariners only came through for 3 runs on 5 hits. Seattle dropped the game despite being favored at -280.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 89 games, winning at a rate of 64.0%. In terms of the over-under, the Mariners and Athletics combined to surpass the line of 7.0 runs. Against the run total, Seattle is just 72-79-7.

In their last 5 games, the Mariners have put together a record of 4-1. Their recent success is backed by an average scoring margin of +1 (last 5). Seattle has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 4.6 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 4.22. On the season, Seattle has won more than half of their series, going 26-20-4.

Pitching Matchup

The Detroit Tigers will send Bryan Garcia to the mound with an overall record of 1-0. Through 3 appearances, Garcia has an ERA of just 3.29 while averaging 4.4 innings per appearance. So far, batters are hitting just 0.191 against him. Home runs have been a concern for Garcia as he is allowing 2.05 per 9 innings. Garcia is in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts, averaging just 3.67 K’s per game. This includes a strikeout percentage of 19.0%. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 5.27 walks per contest.

Seattle will roll with George Kirby (8-4) as their starter. In his previous outings, Kirby has lasted an average of 5.25 innings, putting together an ERA of just 3.21. So far, opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander, posting a batting average allowed of 0.257. Opposing batters are hitting for power at a below-average rate against Kirby, as he is allowing just 0.86 per 9 innings. Overall, George Kirby has struck out 25.0% of the batters he has faced. On average, he averages 5.33 K’s per game. Kirby comes into the game hoping to improve his walk numbers, as he is averaging 1.36 free passes per outing.

Detroit vs Seattle History

Today’s matchup between the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners will be their 4th meeting of the season. Seattle holds the edge in the series at 3-0. Through 3 games, the series over-under record is 1-2, with the average run total sitting at 8.67 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 5.0 runs. Going back to last year, Detroit won the season series, 5 games to 1. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 2-3, with the average run total being 8.67 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 3.67 runs per game.

More Picks: Colorado at LA Dodgers analysis and predicted runline winner for 10/3/22

Betting Trends

  • Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
  • Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass.

Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners Prediction

Heading into Monday’s matchup between Detroit and Seattle, the Mariners have a huge edge on the moneyline, as they will be sending George Kirby to the mound. Leading into action, Kirby has a WHIP of 1.17 and bounced back well from a tough outing by giving up just 1 run vs the Rangers. I recommend taking the Mariners to cover the runline.

Free MLB Pick: Mariners Runline