Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox Expert Play 8/12/23

by | Last updated Aug 12, 2023 | mlb

Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox
Date: Saturday, August 12th, 4:10 ET
Location: Fenway Park
TV: NESN
Money Line: Tigers +161/Red Sox -193 (Learn about reduced juice!)
Total Line: 9.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Boston Red Sox and the Tigers on Saturday, August 12th at Fenway Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

ML RL Total
DET +161 +1.5 O 9.5 (-117)
BOS -193 -1.5 U 9.5 (-105)

Tigers vs. Red Sox Projected Lineup

 

Batting Order Position
Zach McKinstry 1 2B
Riley Greene 2 CF
Spencer Torkelson 3 1B
Kerry Carpenter 4 DH
Matt Vierling 5 RF
Javier Báez 6 SS
Akil Baddoo 7 LF
Eric Haase 8 C
Andy Ibáñez 9 3B
Matt Manning SP

 

Batting Order Position
Jarren Duran 1 CF
Masataka Yoshida 2 LF
Trevor Story 3 SS
Rafael Devers 4 3B
Justin Turner 5 DH
Triston Casas 6 1B
Alex Verdugo 7 RF
Luis Urías 8 2B
Connor Wong 9 C
Brayan Bello SP

 

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Detroit Tigers: 52-64 SU / OU 59-53 / Runline 61-55
Boston Red Sox: 61-55 SU / OU 58-56 / Runline 61-55

So far this season, the Tigers have an overall record of 52-64, putting them 3rd in the AL Central. Currently, they are seven games out in the division. Across their last ten games, they are an even 5-5. On the road, they have gone 26-31 and 26-33 at home. The team’s series record is 16-19-4.

 

  • The Tigers have covered the runline in 52.6% of their games and have an average run margin of -0.9
  • The Tigers have been favored in 17.2% of their games and have runline records of 30-29 and 31-26 at home and on the road, respectively
  • The over has hit in 53% of the Tigers’ 116 games at 59-53.

On a record of 61-55, the Red Sox are 4th in the AL East. Currently, they are 10 games out of the division lead. Against the Tigers, they will be seeking their 4th straight win. On the road, they have a record of 27-28 while going 34-27 at home. Boston’s overall series record is 20-15-3.

 

  • The Red Sox have covered the runline in two straight games and have a season-long run margin of 0.3.
  • The Red Sox have been favored in 48.3% of their games and have runline records of 32-29 and 29-26 at home and on the road, respectively
  • The over has hit in 51% of the Red Sox’s 116 games at 58-56.
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Pitching Matchup

Pitcher Appearances Started IP Record ERA WHIP HR
Matt Manning 10 10 53 3-4 5.06 1.18 10

 

Starter Matt Manning comes in with an overall record of 3-4 for the Tigers. Having made 10 appearances, his ERA is 5.06 and he has a K/9 figure of 6.58. Additionally, he has a FIP of 5.31 and an OBP of .298.

The last time, Manning took the mound, he lasted 5 2/3 innings, as the Tigers fell to the Rays (10-6). Individually, Manning gave up nine hits leading to six earned runs.

Pitcher Appearances Started IP Record ERA WHIP HR
Brayan Bello 19 19 108 8-6 3.64 1.23 15

 

The Red Sox will turn to starter Brayan Bello who has an overall record of 8-6. After 19 appearances, his ERA is 3.64 and he has a K/9 figure of 7.54. Also, he has compiled a FIP of 4.35 and an OBP of .299.

During Brayan Bello’s last outing, he finished with a quality start, allowing one run on six hits over 6 2/3 innings. Although he did not factor into the decision, the team was able to secure a 6-2 victory over the Royals.

Tigers vs. Red Sox Offense Outlook

The Detroit offense comes into the game with just 108 home runs, ranking them 25th in the league. The team’s current batting average is .234, putting them 22nd in all of baseball. In terms of OPS, they are 24th in the league (.670).

Detroit Tigers Top Hitters On The Road

Player BA HR SLG WOBA
Spencer Torkelson .232 11 .436 .313
Matt Vierling .302 5 .450 .346
Javier Báez .226 4 .335 .269
Riley Greene .257 5 .419 .331
Zach McKinstry .221 3 .337 .277

 

Detroit Tigers Top Hitters: Last Five Games

Player BA H R HR SLG
Kerry Carpenter .430 8 5 1 .680
Riley Greene .400 7 3 1 .700
Spencer Torkelson .100 2 3 2 .400
Zach McKinstry .317 6 1 0 .483
Matt Vierling .275 5 2 0 .375

 

With 117 games under their belt, the Red Sox are currently 10th in the league, averaging 4.9 runs per game. Boston’s home run ranking is 17th, with the team having hit 129 long balls. The team’s batting average, including .230 on the road and .277 at home, is .262.

Boston Red Sox Top Hitters vs. Righties

Player BA HR SLG WOBA
Masataka Yoshida .309 9 .488 .363
Justin Turner .285 11 .450 .344
Alex Verdugo .291 8 .479 .354
Jarren Duran .301 7 .506 .365
Rafael Devers .256 18 .505 .352

 

Boston Red Sox Top Hitters: Last Five Games

Player BA H R HR SLG
Pablo Reyes .550 10 5 1 .800
Triston Casas .283 5 4 2 .683
Alex Verdugo .183 3 4 0 .317
Adam Duvall .150 3 1 1 .350
Connor Wong .444 4 0 0 .611

 

Free MLB Pick

Matt Manning has gotten absolutely torched in his last three outings and Bello has been beaten up (7.25 ERA this season, 5.52 last year) in day games this season, so I’m betting the OVER 9.5.

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