Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Analysis & Best Bet

by | Sep 19, 2022 | mlb

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Date: Monday September 19th, 10:10 ET

Location: Dodger Stadium

TV: Bally Sports Arizona

Money Line: Diamondbacks +215 / Dodgers -265 (BAS - It’s IMPERATIVE that you’re betting at the cheapest odds possible if you want to have any shot of winning long term! That’s what you get at BAS!)

Total Line: 7.5

STARTING PITCHING

Arizona: Merrill Kelly (12-6, 3.01)
Los Angeles: Clayton Kershaw (8-3, 2.44)

Diamondbacks Projected Lineup

Jordan Luplow RF
Daulton Varsho RF
Emmanuel Rivera 3B
Jake McCarthy LF
Stone Garrett LF
Geraldo Perdomo SS
Carson Kelly C
Christian Walker 1B
Ketel Marte 2B
Merrill Kelly P

Dodgers Projected Lineup

Chris Taylor LF
Cody Bellinger CF
Max Muncy 3B
Mookie Betts RF
Justin Turner 3B
Gavin Lux 2B
Will Smith C
Freddie Freeman 1B
Trea Turner SS
Clayton Kershaw P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Arizona Diamondbacks: 68-77-0 SU / OU 67-75-4 / Run Line W/L 83-63-0
Los Angeles Dodgers: 100-44-0 SU / OU 62-71-12 / Run Line W/L 90-55-0

The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday September 19th at Dodger Stadium. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 10:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Los Angeles as the favorite (-265), with an OU line set at 7.5.

Recent Form

The Diamondbacks come into this matchup having suffered a 5 run loss to San Diego (6-1). On their way to giving up 6 runs, the Diamondbacks staff allowed 8 hits. With their 4 hits, the Diamondbacks could only muster 1 run. The loss came as Arizona was the betting underdog, getting 130.0 on the moneyline. Combined, the Diamondbacks and San Diego fell short of the over-under betting line of 8.0 runs. With this result, Arizona’s over-under record dropped even further, moving to just 67-75-4.

The Diamondbacks will be hoping to pick up a win in today’s matchup, as they have gone just 2-3 over their last 5 games. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -10. On offense, Arizona’s offense has experienced a dip in production, averaging 2.6 runs per game over their last 5 contests. Arizona’s overall series record is just 17-22-7.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are coming off a big win over the Giants by a score of 4-3. In the winning effort, the team’s pitchers held the Giants to 3 runs and 6 hits. Offensively, they finished with 7 runs on 6 hits. Heading into action, Los Angeles was the favorite at -182.0. So far, the team has won 71.0% of the games in which they were favored. The Dodgers and Giants went over the run total line set at 7.5 runs. On the season, the team has an over-under record of just 62-71-12.

In their last 5 games, the Dodgers have put together a record of 4-1. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at +13. Los Angeles has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 4.6 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 5.42. On the season, Los Angeles has won more than half of their series, going 34-10-2.

Pitching Matchup

The Arizona Diamondbacks will send Merrill Kelly to the mound with an overall record of 12-6. Currently, Kelly has an ERA of just 3.01 while pitching an average of 6.08 innings per outing. So far, batters are hitting just 0.219 against him. In addition, to his strong BA allowed, he has been able to limit power, allowing just 0.77 home runs allowed per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Merrill Kelly has a strong strikeout percentage of 22.0%, including a per-game average of 5.34. Command has been a problem for Kelly, as he is giving up 2.75 walks per outing.

The Los Angeles Dodgers will send Clayton Kershaw to the mound with an overall record of 8-3. Heading into the game, Kershaw has appeared in 18 contests, posting an ERA of just 2.44. On average, he pitches 5.73 innings per appearance. Overall, opponents have a batting average of just 0.204 against the right-hander. This year Kershaw is allowing just 0.7 home runs per 9 innings pitched. Overall, Clayton Kershaw has struck out 27.0% of the batters he has faced. On average, he averages 5.94 K’s per game. Kershaw comes into the game hoping to improve his walk numbers, as he is averaging 1.65 free passes per outing.

Arizona vs Los Angeles History

For the season, the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers will be playing their 15th game of the season. Los Angeles holds the edge in the series at 11-3. Through 14 games, the series over-under record is 4-10, with the average run total sitting at 9.32 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 3.64 runs. Los Angeles won last year’s head to head series, grabbing 16 wins to 3. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 10-8, with the average run total being 9.32 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 4.68 runs per contest.

Betting Trends

  • Diamondbacks are 54-113 in their last 167 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Diamondbacks are 41-87 in their last 128 vs. National League West.
  • Dodgers are 43-11 in their last 54 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Dodgers are 42-11 in their last 53 vs. National League West.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Heading into Monday’s matchup between Arizona and Los Angeles, the Dodgers are the strong favorite on the moneyline. This season, Merrill Kelly is 0-3 vs Los Angeles, and it figures to get worse tonight. I like the Dodgers on the runline.

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