Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers (NLCS Game 1)
Sunday, October 11, 2026
8:00 PM ET, American Family Field
Milwaukee opens as a slight home favorite over Los Angeles with the total set at 6. My play is the Under.
This is as good a pitching matchup as the postseason gets. Tarik Skubal, the two-time defending AL Cy Young winner, goes for the Dodgers after a 12-7 season with a 2.72 ERA. He opened the NLDS with six innings of one-run ball against Atlanta. Jacob Misiorowski answers for Milwaukee after going 16-5 with a 1.80 ERA, the best ERA of any qualified starter in the National League. A total of 6 already accounts for a lot of that, but this matchup can still stay under it.
Both starters have been Under machines. The Under is 8-3 in Skubal’s starts with the Dodgers and 17-12-2 in Misiorowski’s starts this season. The postseason has followed the same script. All four Dodgers playoff games went Under, and the Brewers went Under in three of four with one push. Both teams finished their Division Series in four games on Wednesday, so both starters are fully rested and both bullpens are fresh.
Neither lineup is hitting much right now. The Dodgers are batting .203 this postseason, and while they’ve hit eight home runs, they scored just four runs in their Game 4 clincher in Atlanta, two of them on a wild throw and a dropped ball. The Brewers are hitting .250 but slugging only .348, living on singles. Milwaukee scored three runs in its Game 4 win in San Diego, and Robert Gasser and the bullpen held the Padres to three hits. Against Skubal and Misiorowski, singles-hitting offenses will have a hard time stringing together big innings.
The risk is Misiorowski’s pitch count. He lasted only four innings in his NLDS start, allowing two runs, and Milwaukee will have to cover the middle innings if he exits early again. That opens a window for a Dodgers lineup that can change a game with one swing. But Skubal is on the other side, and a 7-inning, 1-run start from him keeps this game low no matter what happens in Milwaukee’s bullpen. A 3-2 type of game is the most likely result. Six runs is a push, so this needs five or fewer to cash.
The Pick: Under 6
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