Dodgers vs. Mets Analysis & ML Pick 9/1/22

by | Sep 1, 2022 | mlb

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets
Date: Thursday September 1st, 04:10 ET
Location: Citi Field
TV: SNY
Money Line: Dodgers -150 / Mets +126
Total Line: 7.5

STARTING PITCHING

Los Angeles: Clayton Kershaw (7-3, 2.64) New York: Chris Bassitt (11-7, 3.28)

Dodgers Projected Lineup

Gavin Lux 2B Chris Taylor LF Max Muncy 3B Mookie Betts RF Justin Turner 3B Cody Bellinger CF Will Smith C Freddie Freeman 1B Trea Turner SS Clayton Kershaw P

Mets Projected Lineup

Jeff McNeil 2B Eduardo Escobar 3B Darin Ruf 1B Starling Marte RF Mark Canha LF James McCann C Francisco Lindor SS Pete Alonso 1B Brandon Nimmo CF Chris Bassitt P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Los Angeles Dodgers: 90-39-0 SU / OU 53-66-10 / Run Line W/L 80-49-0 New York Mets: 83-48-0 SU / OU 63-59-9 / Run Line W/L 71-60-0

The New York Mets host the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday September 1st at Citi Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 04:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Los Angeles as the favorite (-150), with an OU line set at 7.5.

Recent Form

The Dodgers will look to rebound from a close, 2-1 loss to the NY Mets. Even in the loss, the pitching staff gave up just 2 runs while allowing 8 hits. Offensively, they finished with just 1 run on 3 hits. Los Angeles’s loss came as the underdog, getting 140.0 on the moneyline. Combined, the Dodgers and NY Mets fell short of the over-under betting line of 6.5 runs. With this result, Los Angeles’s over-under record dropped even further, moving to just 53-66-10.

The Dodgers are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 3-2 over their last 5 games. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at +7. Los Angeles has put together this record, despite averaging just 3.4 runs per game, compared to their season average of 5.36. So far, Los Angeles has won over half of their 41 series played, going 29-9-3.

The Mets are coming off a tight 2-1 win over the Dodgers. In the winning effort, the team’s pitchers held the Dodgers to 1 run and 3 hits. At the plate, the Mets only came through for 2 runs on 8 hits. New York picked up the win while being favored at -165.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 100 games, winning at a rate of 69.0%. With this result, the Mets and Dodgers combined to fall below the over-under line of 6.5 runs. Even still, New York games have still gone over the betting total over half of the time, at 63-59-9.

Across their last 5 contests, the Mets are above .500, going 3-2. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at +3. New York has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 3.0 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 4.67. On the season, New York has won more than half of their series, going 29-8-4.

Pitching Matchup

Clayton Kershaw gets the start for the Dodgers, with an overall record of 7-3. Currently, Kershaw has an ERA of just 2.64 while pitching an average of 5.67 innings per outing. Hits have been hard to come by against the left-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.218. In addition, to his strong BA allowed, he has been able to limit power, allowing just 0.74 home runs allowed per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Clayton Kershaw has a strong strikeout percentage of 26.0%, including a per-game average of 5.87. Throughout the season, Kershaw has avoided walking batters, allowing just 1.58 per contest.

In today’s game, New York turns to starter Chris Bassitt. For the year, he has a record of 11-7. Currently, Bassitt has a strong ERA of just 3.28 while pitching an average of 6.17 innings per outing. Across his previous appearances, the right-hander has a batting average allowed of 0.233. So far, Bassitt has managed to keep the ball in the ballpark, allowing just 0.91 home runs per 9 innings. On the season, Chris Bassitt has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 23.0%. This has led to an average of 5.79 K’s per game. Bassitt comes into the game hoping to improve his walk numbers, as he is averaging 2.24 free passes per outing.

Los Angeles vs New York History

Today’s matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets will be their 7th meeting of the season. So far, the teams have each won 3 times. The over-under record in this series sits at 1-4. The average run total in these games is 8.29 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 2.5 runs. Going back to last year, Los Angeles won the season series, 6 games to 1. In these 7 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 3-4. Last year, the Dodgers and Mets averaged 8.29 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 3.14 runs per game.

Betting Trends

  • LA Dodgers is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Dodgers’s last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of NY Mets’s last 9 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Mets’s last 8 games

Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets Prediction

Heading into Thursday’s National League showdown between Los Angeles and New York, the Dodgers are the favorite on the moneyline. However, I expect Los Angeles to be careful with Klayton Kershaw who hasn’t pitched since August 4th. Look for the Mets to pick up another win over the Dodgers.

Free MLB Pick: Mets Moneyline