Dodgers vs. Reds Runline 6/21/22

by | Last updated Jun 21, 2022 | mlb

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds

Date: Tuesday, June 21st, 06:40 ET

Location: Great American Ball Park

TV: Bally Sports Ohio

Money Line: Dodgers -195 / Reds +160 (MyBookie – Use bonus code PREDICT100 and they’ll give you a 100% REAL CASH bonus instead of a free play! HUGE value!)

Total Line: 9.5


Los Angeles: Tony Gonsolin (8-0, 1.42)
Cincinnati: Tyler Mahle (2-5, 4.1)

Dodgers Projected Lineup

Justin Turner 3B
Eddy Alvarez RF
Chris Taylor LF
Cody Bellinger CF
Max Muncy 3B
Gavin Lux 2B
Will Smith C
Trea Turner SS
Freddie Freeman 1B
Tony Gonsolin P

Reds Projected Lineup

Mike Moustakas 1B
Albert Almora Jr. RF
Kyle Farmer SS
Nick Senzel CF
Brandon Drury 3B
Aramis Garcia C
Tommy Pham LF
Joey Votto 1B
Jonathan India 2B
Tyler Mahle P


Los Angeles Dodgers: 40-25-0 SU / OU 26-34-5 / Run Line W/L 36-29-0
Cincinnati Reds: 23-43-0 SU / OU 35-30-1 / Run Line W/L 30-36-0

The Cincinnati Reds host the Los Angeles Dodgers on Tuesday, June 21st at Great American Ball Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 06:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Los Angeles as the favorite (-195), with an OU line set at 9.5.

Recent Form

In Los Angeles’s last game, they fell to the Guardians by a score of 5-3. On their way to giving up 5 runs, the Dodgers staff allowed 11 hits. The Dodgers ended the game with just 3 runs on 8 hits. This defeat came despite being favored at -165.0. Through 64 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 61.0%. This game went over the posted over-under line of 7.5 runs. Games involving the Dodgers have stayed below the over-under line more than half of the time, at 26-34-5.

The Dodgers are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 3-2 over their last 5 games. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +8. Los Angeles has put together this record, despite averaging just 3.4 runs per game, compared to their season average of 5.02. So far, Los Angeles has won over half of their 21 series, going 13-7-1.

Cincinnati will be looking to move on from a tough loss to the Brewers by the score of 6-3. On their way to giving up 6 runs, the Reds staff allowed 8 hits. The Reds’ offense ended the game with just 3 runs on 6 hits. This loss came as no surprise, as Cincinnati came into the game as the underdog, getting 115.0. So far, the team has gone into 46 games as the underdog, still finding the win column at a rate of 35.0%. Combined, the Reds and Brewers’ run total fell below the over-under line of 9.5 runs. Even still, Cincinnati games have still gone over the betting total over half of the time, at 35-30-1.

The Reds come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 1-4 over their last 5 games. This recent slump is backed by a scoring margin of -9 over their last 5 games. Even with their recent struggles, the offense has been steady, averaging 3.8 runs per game. This is right in line with their season average of 4.35. Cincinnati has a below .500 series record of just 5-11-5.

Pitching Matchup

Tony Gonsolin gets the start for the Dodgers, with an overall record of 8-0. Through 12 appearances, Gonsolin has an ERA of just 1.42 while averaging 5.26 innings per appearance. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.147. Not only does Gonsolin have a strong batting average allowed, but he has also avoided giving up home runs. In his previous outings, opponents are averaging just 0.57 HR/9. On the season, Tony Gonsolin has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 25.0%. This includes a per game average of 5.0 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.84 walks per outing.

Cincinnati will roll with Tyler Mahle (2-5) as their starter. Mahle gets the start with an ERA of 4.1. On average, he has lasted 5.3 innings per appearance. Mahle will take the mound with a BA allowed of 0.216. Mahle is giving up home runs at a rate similar to the league average, allowing 0.85 per 9 innings. Overall, Tyler Mahle has struck out 27.0% of the batters he has faced. On average, he averages 6.14 K’s per game. Command has been a problem for Mahle, as he is giving up 3.62 walks per outing.

Los Angeles vs Cincinnati History

For the season, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Cincinnati Reds will be playing their 5th game of the season. Los Angeles has the lead in the series at 4-0. Through 4 games, the series’ over-under record is 2-2, with the average run total sitting at 8.33 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 4.75 runs. Last year, the team’s split the season series at 3-3. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 4-2, with the average run total being 8.33 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 3.33 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • LA Dodgers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
  • LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 5 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 6 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Heading into Tuesday’s series opener between Los Angeles and Cincinnati, the Dodgers are the heavy favorites to pick up the win. Even though Reds starter Tyler Mahle has pitched well of late, I expect Los Angeles to have a big game at the plate. I like the Dodgers on the runline.

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