Florida at No. 7 Texas
Saturday, October 17, 2026
12:00 PM ET, Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
Texas is a 10.5-point favorite over Florida, with the total at 52.5. My play is Florida +10.5.
Be honest: when was the last time you watched this Texas offense and thought, “These guys are about to win by two touchdowns”? Take your time. I’ll wait.
Texas has played three Power Four teams this season: Ohio State, Tennessee and Oklahoma. All three games were decided by three points or fewer, and the last one was a loss to an unranked Sooners team. The Longhorns are 1-4 against the spread, and the lone cover came against Texas State.
This is a defense with an offense attached, and the offense is the part that keeps letting people down. Texas is putting up 31.4 points and 379.2 yards a game, ordinary numbers for a top-10 team, and it went three-and-out seven times against the Sooners. Steve Sarkisian compared that to “your grandma’s Christmas tree” with “that blinking light.” Hard to argue with him.
Then there’s Arch Manning in the fourth quarter. Against Oklahoma he threw a pick-six to Peyton Bowen, then another interception with 19 seconds left that set up Tate Sandell’s walk-off field goal. Florida fans have seen this movie. Manning threw two fourth-quarter interceptions in the Swamp last season, too, when the Gators won 29-21. Sarkisian got asked about his play-calling again this week and answered, “clearly, we’ve been just a little bit off. I think we’re close, and that’s the encouraging part.” Maybe. But “close” and “cover 10.5” are two different things.
The Gators are a mess, and the market charged you extra for it
Nobody’s mistaking Florida for a juggernaut right now. Jon Sumrall’s first season started 4-0, capped by a 52-28 rout of a top-five Ole Miss team. Then came a blowout loss at Missouri and a homecoming loss to South Carolina, with boos raining down in the Swamp before halftime. Sumrall summed it up better than I could: “We’re a work in progress. Sometimes our progress is dysfunctional.”
That’s the point, though. The bad vibes are baked into the price. This line has climbed a full point since it opened, and VSiN put it bluntly: “it sure seems like Florida has been punished heavily for losing to Missouri and South Carolina, while Texas losing to Oklahoma seemed to just get shrugged off.”
The heavier wallets seem to agree. Florida has only 41% of the spread bets but 74% of the money. Fewer tickets, bigger checks: that’s the classic split when larger bettors lean away from the crowd.
Florida also brings the better offense into this game, and it isn’t close. The Gators gain 6.4 yards per play to Texas’ 5.3, and they win the down-to-down efficiency battle too. Their special teams rank first in the country in SP+, while Sarkisian admitted this week that his own unit is going through one of those “lulls.” Add a hidden yard here and a long return there, and a 20-point day doesn’t look crazy. This is also Florida’s first game all season as an underdog, and with a bye week before Georgia, Sumrall has no reason to hold anything back.
Now for the part that keeps me up at night. Florida cannot cover anybody. The Gators give up 292.8 passing yards a game, which is near the bottom of the country, and opponents convert about half their third downs. The cornerback room is so thin Sumrall admitted, “We’re not much deeper than that really right now at that position.” He also joked about calling the SEC to “play with 16 players and double the receivers,” which tells you how he feels about Texas’ wideouts.
It gets worse up front. Colin Simmons has 9.5 sacks and looked so good on tape that Sumrall said he wanted to turn it off. Jadan Baugh has managed just 72 rushing yards over the last two games, and Sumrall says his team looks “a little bit worn down” without a bye yet.
The models don’t love my side either. ESPN’s FPI makes Texas a 16.6-point favorite, and CollegeFootballRatings has it at 13.8. If Manning gets a clean afternoon, Texas can bury this team by halftime.
I’m still betting he doesn’t. Texas’ defense will win plenty of snaps, and the Longhorns probably win the game. But this offense hasn’t put a quality opponent away all season, and I’m not paying double digits for it to start against a team with nothing to save for next week.
My number: Texas 27, Florida 20.
The Pick: Florida +10.5
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