Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays (ALCS Game 1)
Monday, October 12, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Tropicana Field
Tampa Bay is a solid home favorite over Cleveland with the moneyline at Rays -170 and the run line at Rays -1.5 (+130). My play is the Rays on the run line at plus money.
Drew Rasmussen hasn’t allowed a run this postseason. He took a no-hitter into the eighth inning of ALDS Game 1 against the Yankees and finished with eight innings, one hit and 10 strikeouts. That capped a 16-5 regular season with a 2.67 ERA, and the Rays went 21-9 in his starts. He’s been at his best against Cleveland, with six or more strikeouts in both starts, including nine strikeouts and one hit allowed his last time out.
Tampa Bay owns this matchup. The Rays won the regular-season series 5-1 and went 55-26 at Tropicana Field. They also swept the Yankees in the ALDS, so they come in rested with Rasmussen, Freddy Peralta and Nick Martinez lined up. Cleveland needed all five games to get past the White Sox, and Gavin Williams, who struck out 12 in the Game 5 clincher, isn’t available until Game 3.
That’s why Foster Griffin is starting Game 1. The deadline pickup from Washington went 15-6 with a 3.60 ERA during the regular season and made the All-Star team, but his only ALDS outing came in relief, 2.2 innings in Game 3. Cleveland’s high-leverage arms, including Hunter Gaddis and Cade Smith, carried a heavy load in the five-game series. If Griffin can’t get deep, the Guardians will be leaning on tired relievers against a rested Rays lineup at home.
The risk is Tampa Bay’s bat against left-handed pitching. The Rays ranked 25th in OPS against lefties during the regular season, and Griffin is a lefty. Cleveland’s bullpen also has a 2.67 ERA this postseason and set a division-series record with 75 strikeouts as a staff, so it has been sharp even with the workload. A 3-2 Rays win is a real possibility, and that doesn’t cover. But with Rasmussen this locked in, Tampa Bay won’t need much offense to win by two, and +130 pays well for that outcome.
The Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+130)
Back the Rays on the run line at the Trop and bring a bigger bankroll into the MLB playoffs. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet the Rays and the rest of your MLB playoff picks.
