Giants at Dodgers Runline Pick

by | Aug 8, 2020 | mlb

San Francisco Giants (6-9) at Los Angeles Dodgers (10-4)

When: 9:10 p.m., Saturday, August 8

Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles

TV: MLB Network

Moneyline: SF +250/LAD -300 (Bovada - Deposit $200, get $100 FREE! Credit cards work there!)

Runline: Giants +1.5/Dodgers -1.5

Total: 8.5

Starting Pitchers: Johnny Cueto (0-0, 4.97 ERA, 1.58 WHIP) vs. Clayton Kershaw (1-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.53 WHIP)

Familiarity Breeds Contempt

Even for the original West Coast rivalry, this is a large number of games on the schedule. Of the 15 games that the Giants have played, a full third of them have been at Dodger Stadium. The teams have already met five times, and all five have seen the boys in blue as the home team. This year’s schedule was about convenience over fairness, as the Giants will only host the Dodgers three times compared to seven games played in Los Angeles.

However, the Giants have actually done a fair job of getting results against their rivals, winning two of the five meetings between the teams. Where San Francisco has struggled is in run creation. For the year, San Francisco has a mere 12 runs to the Dodgers’ 29. But the Giants have two wins because they’ve managed to bunch all of their bad offensive games into games where their pitchers couldn’t shut the Dodgers down. In the three wins, the Dodgers have 24 runs, while the Giants scored just four. Conversely, the two San Francisco wins saw the Giants outscore Los Angeles 8-5. In order to get a win, San Francisco must get a sharp performance from its pitching, because when the Giants don’t pitch to their potential, the Dodgers will make them pay.

Can’t Get Lucky Twice

San Francisco really would have loved to get out of having to face Clayton Kershaw after the Dodger ace was scratched from the Opening Day start. No such luck, as Kershaw now gets a shot to continue his dominance of San Francisco. Kershaw continues to be one of the best pitchers in the game, but he always seems to save a little something extra for when he comes up against the Giants. His ERA is 1.74 against San Francisco for his entire career, and that’s despite the fact that he’s not faced anyone as often as he has the Giants.

Kershaw has just one appearance this year and didn’t get out of the sixth inning, but he still helped his team get a win and struck out six in abbreviated work against Arizona. The Giants have been better hitters than the Diamondbacks — by a mile — but they’ve still got their work cut out for them against Kershaw, a man they have never quite been able to solve. If Kershaw is on his game, he’s good enough to win the contest on his own.

More Picks: Tigers at Pirates (4:10 PM Start)

Fielding Miscues

Of course, when a team makes as many mistakes in the field as the Giants have, an opposing pitcher doesn’t have to be anywhere near as good as Kershaw has been in 2020. The Giants have managed to make 18 errors in 15 games so far, and given that San Francisco pitchers have a combined ERA of 5.02, the Giants don’t need to be giving their opponents any extra help.

By contrast, the Dodgers rank second in baseball in ERA and tied for third with just four errors on the season. In short, this is a total mismatch on paper, and it’s rather remarkable that San Francisco is 2-3 against Los Angeles this year.

Betting Trends

  • The Giants are 1-5 in their past six games.
  • The Giants are 2-5 in their past seven games against a team that allowed two runs or less in its previous game. The Dodgers are 39-16 in their last 55 against a team with a losing record.
  • The under is 5-0-2 in the Giants’ past seven road games.
  • The under is 8-3-1 in the Dodgers’ previous 12 games as the favorite.
  • The Giants have won two of their past nine meetings with the Dodgers.

Weather Report

A warm day could be on the docket, with temperatures getting as high as 89 degrees in Southern California.

Dan’s Pick

I hate having to pay the juice here, but there’s just no reason to justify picking against Kershaw in a situation like this. He’s been virtually unbeatable against San Francisco over the course of his career, and the Giants have had their problems scoring against the Dodgers as a whole.

I don’t love taking the runline, but I don’t see much of an option in this situation. The Dodgers are just favored by too much to do anything but eat the extra run here in order to get a decent payout. Give me Los Angeles on the run line. Want more free betting account money? Deposit $25 and get an additional $50 added when you sign up for an account at one of the oldest books on the web! –> Intertops!