Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves Game 3 Predictions

by | Oct 29, 2021 | mlb

Houston Astros (103-71) vs. Atlanta Braves (96-77)

When: 8:10 p.m., Friday, October 29

Where: Truist Park, Atlanta

Moneyline: HOU -110/ATL -110

Runline: Astros +1.5/Braves -1.5

Total: 8.5 (MyBookie - Receive a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 when you use bonus code PREDICT100 when registering!)

Starting Pitchers: Luis Garcia (12-9, 3.66 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) vs. Ian Anderson (10-5, 3.46 ERA, 1.22 WHIP)

Coming Home

Even though it cost them Charlie Morton, the Braves did their job as far as going to Houston and getting a split, which gives them the home-field advantage as the series shifts to the Peach State. Now the Astros have to do something that both the Brewers and the Dodgers failed to do: beat the Braves at Truist Park.

Atlanta hasn’t been touched at home in the postseason, posting a perfect 5-0 mark and winning both games in which they had a chance to officially eliminate their opponent. However, if you’re backing the runline, you might want to consider the Astros here because the Braves’ specialty at home has been the one-run survival.

In both of the Braves’ first two wins against the Dodgers, Atlanta came up with the winning run in the ninth inning. In Game 4 against Milwaukee, the Braves got the job done an inning earlier, breaking a 4-4 tie on Freddie Freeman’s home run in the eighth and closing out the Brewers. Those are wins on the money line, but on the run line, the late-game finish can be devastating for a bettor.

Starring at Home

Beating the Braves at Truist Park isn’t the only part of this equation that can be a nightmare for the Astros. There’s also the fact that they’ve got to get the job done against Ian Anderson, who has been lights out when pitching in Atlanta. The Braves have had a quick hook in the playoffs, but they’ve still been on the winning end in seven straight home games with Anderson on the mound, dating back to a June 16 loss to Boston.

For the year, Anderson owns a 5-1 mark, which seems to be more a product of his team’s offense coming through for him at home than it does him being more comfortable in Atlanta. Anderson has statistically been almost the same pitcher at home as he is on the road, as he’s got an ERA of 3.52 at home compared to 3.63 away. But the Braves produce for him at home, which is a big reason why the only team to beat him at home all year was the Dodgers, and that was back in the spring.

Renaissance or Last Gasp?

One problem with trusting young pitchers in the postseason is that you never really know how their mentality or their arm will hold up under the strain of pitching extra innings this late in the year. At just 24 years old, Luis Garcia looks like he’ll be a reliable starter for many years to come, but this is the most pressure-packed situation he’s pitched in as a professional.

On top of that, he’s pitched far more innings than he has before. In the minors, the season is over by September, which limits the innings that younger pitchers are able to throw. When Garcia got to the majors, he only threw 14.1 innings in the regular season and playoffs combined, thanks to the pandemic shortening the season.

This year, he’s pitched a normal season, and he’s accumulated 155 regular-season innings on his arm. He’s made three starts in the postseason, and two of them were clunkers, giving up ten runs in 3.2 innings combined to Chicago and Boston. But in Game 6 of the ALCS, Garcia was brilliant, striking out seven and holding Boston to one hit through 5.2 innings.
The question is, which Garcia is the real one at this point in the year? The first inning will tell us a lot about what kind of night he might have.

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Betting Trends

  • The Astros are 6-2 in their past eight Game 3s.
  • The Astros are 4-1 in their past five games overall.
  • The Braves have won eight straight playoff games as a favorite.
  • The Braves are 20-6 in their past 26 games overall.
  • The over is 5-0 in the Astros’ past five road games.
  • The over is 7-0 in the Astros’ past seven games as an underdog.
  • The over is 4-1 in the Braves’ past five games.
  • The over is 6-1-1 in the Braves’ past eight interleague home games.
  • The Astros are 3-7 in the past ten matchups in Atlanta.
  • The under is 8-3-1 in the past 12 meetings.

Weather Report

MLB probably wishes there was a roof in place for this stadium, but no such luck. Temperatures will sit at 53 degrees at the first pitch, with light rain in the forecast and winds blowing at eight miles per hour to the west-southwest.

Dan’s Pick

Anderson’s home-field success is more to his team’s offense rather than his own pitching prowess, but the combination has worked pretty well, and the Braves seem to be in good shape to solve Houston’s pitching. I like what I’ve seen from Atlanta in this series so far, and I think they can pull out another tight one at home.
Give me the Braves. Bet this game at the sportsbook with the lowest favorite odds and highest paying underdogs —> BetAnySports (You also lay only -105 on football/basketball sides and totals!)`

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