Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Pick 8/4/21

by | Aug 4, 2021 | mlb

Houston Astros (65-42) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (64-44)

When: 9:40 p.m., Wednesday, August 4

Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles

Moneyline: HOU +195/LAD -215

Runline: Astros +1.5/Dodgers -1.5

Total: 9

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Starting Pitchers: Jake Odorizzi (4-5, 4.30 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) vs. Max Scherzer (8-4, 2.76 ERA, 0.89 WHIP)

Being the Enemy

The Astros seemed to actually build off the Dodgers’ fans vitriol in the opener of this brief series, as they turned in one of their best performances of the season in the face of Los Angeles fans’ boos. At this point, the booing probably helps Houston more than it hurts them, as the Astros have either gotten used to other teams trying to taunt them or have learned to feed off of it after almost two years of hearing it from other fan bases.
The main issue for the Dodgers was that the bats fell silent again, and they wasted what was a brilliant start from Walker Buehler. For all of its talent, Los Angeles hasn’t won a series against anyone but Arizona or Colorado since July 4, and real questions are beginning to form as to whether Los Angeles can actually catch San Francisco or if the Dodgers will have to settle for a wild-card slot. Unless the Dodgers can get things going against a good team, they’re going to find themselves in that one-game nightmare.

Lacking Accuracy

Jake Odorizzi’s recent performances have been mediocre at best, as the former Twin seems to be struggling to both keep the ball in the park and keep it over the plate. He’s walked seven hitters over his past three outings and allowed four home runs, leading to 10 earned runs and three consecutive overs. However, the Astros have managed to win two of those games, mainly because the offense has seemed to respond to having to put up some large numbers. In Odorizzi’s past two starts, the Astros have scored 18 runs, making sure neither game was ever in doubt.

However, a look at the opposition reveals that Houston’s offensive explosions were because of the lack of quality from their opponents, not because of the situation. Against the White Sox and Yankees, the Astros combined for just one run with Odorizzi on the hill. Of his past ten games, the Astros have topped three runs five times, and four were against Texas, Baltimore, and Seattle, not exactly an intimidating trio.

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New Man in Hollywood

Max Scherzer makes his first start with the Dodgers, and the big question is whether he can still be the same pitcher for the Dodgers that he’s been for most of his career. At 37, Scherzer is clearly on his way to Cooperstown once his career is over, and he’s shown that he’s far from being out of bullets. However, a significant change like this one can be challenging after spending so much of your career in one spot, and Scherzer has shown a tendency to struggle at times this year, such as when the Padres tagged him for seven runs three starts ago.

The good news for Scherzer and the Dodgers is that Los Angeles doesn’t need him to be great. As long as he’s a solid starter most days, this partnership will work out just fine for both sides.

Betting Trends

  • The Astros are 9-2 in their past 11 Wednesday games.
  • The Astros are 21-7 in their past 28 games following a win.
  • The Dodgers are 25-11 in their past 36 against the AL West.
  • The Dodgers are 36-17 in their past 53 interleague games.
  • The over is 4-0 in the Astros’ past four games after a win.
  • The over is 5-2 in the Astros’ past seven games overall.
  • The under is 4-1-1 in the Dodgers’ past six home games.
  • The over is 4-1 in the Dodgers’ past five games overall.
  • The Dodgers are 5-2 in the past seven meetings overall.
  • The Astros are 5-2 in the past seven meetings in Los Angeles.
  • The under is 14-5-2 in the past 21 meetings.

Weather Report

It’s going to be a warm evening in Southern California, with temperatures pushing 84 degrees and wind blowing at seven miles per hour out to right-center.

Dan’s pick

The Dodgers aren’t likely to put up two poor games in a row, and Scherzer is likely anxious to prove himself to his new team. Odorizzi has been just OK as of late, and I expect the Dodgers to have a much easier time with him than they did against McCullers.

There’s no value with Los Angeles on the moneyline, so I’ll back the Dodgers on the runline. Bet your baseball picks for FREE this week by scoring a massive 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 at GTBets!