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Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Pick

by | Last updated Apr 12, 2019 | mlb

Houston Astros (8-5) vs. Seattle Mariners (13-2) 4/12/19
Time: 10:10 pm ET
Where: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
Listed Pitchers: Wade LeBlanc (Sea) vs. Wade Miley (Hou)
TV: SportsNet Southwest, ROOT Northwest

Moneyline: Astros -126 / Mariners +136 (5Dimes)
Over/Under: 9

The Seattle Mariners are the best team in baseball through the first two weeks of this season, but they’re lined as home dogs for the opener of a three-game series with the pre-season favorites to win the American League West, the Houston Astros, Friday night. Which way are we going with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Friday’s MLB betting odds opened Houston and Miley at around -125 over Seattle and LeBlanc, with an over/under of 8.5. Early betting action then steamed that line to -150, and bumped the total to 9.

The Astros could also be found getting around +105 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Astros vs. Mariners Set-Up

Houston rides a six-game winning streak into this series, after sweeping three games at home from the Yankees earlier this week by scores of 4-3, 6-3 and 8-6. The Astros then had Thursday off.

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Seattle also rides a six-game winning streak into this series, after sweeping four games from the Royals in Kansas City this week by scores of 13-5, 6-3, 6-5 and 7-6. The Mariners won Thursday by tying the game with two runs with two outs in the ninth inning, then winning it with a home run in the tenth.

This series is the first meeting this season between these division rivals. Last year Seattle took the season series from Houston 10 games to nine.

Friday’s Starting Arms

Lefty and former Astro LeBlanc (2-0, 4.76) is one-for-two on quality starts this season. First he gave up six runs – four earned – on seven hits through 5 1/3 innings against Boston, but the Mariners won that game anyway 10-8. Then last Sunday he held the White Sox to two runs on six hits through six innings of a 12-5 Seattle victory. So the Mariners are 2-0 this season with LeBlanc, with the overs going 2-0.

In four starts last year against the Astros LeBlanc gave up 13 runs on 23 hits through 18 2/3 innings. Seattle split those four games, as did the totals.

Fellow lefty and former Mariner Miley (1-1, 2.31), by our strict standards, is 0/2 on quality starts this season, but he’s actually pitched pretty well. First he gave up three runs and eight hits through six innings of a 3-1 Houston loss at Tampa Bay. Then last Saturday he held Oakland scoreless on four hits through 5 2/3 innings of a 6-0 Astros victory. So Houston is 1-1 with Miley this season, with the unders going 2-0.

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This will be Miley’s first start against the Mariners since 2017, when he was with Baltimore. And the Seattle lineup has changed quite a bit since then.

Friday’s Batting Splits

The Astros are batting .308/.381/.558 against left-handed pitching this season. This lineup has also scored at least six runs in four of its last five games.

The Mariners are batting .289/.398/.644 against LH pitching this season. This lineup has also scored at least six runs each of its last seven games.

The Bullpens

  • The Houston bullpen owns a 3.03 ERA this season, a 1.04 WHIP and a 42/9 strikeouts/walks ratio.
  • The Seattle bullpen owns a 4.04 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP and a 57/33 K/BB ratio.

Totals Report

  • The unders are 9-4 in Astros games this season.
  • The overs are 11-3 in Mariners games this season.
  • The unders played 10-9 in Astros-Mariners games last season.
  • The unders played 42-37-2 in games played at T-Mobile Park last season, which averaged 7.9 total runs per.

Free MLB Pick

We give Miley the edge in the pitching match-up and Houston owns the better bullpen. We also believe Seattle’s been playing a bit over its head so far this season, and it’s only a matter of time before reality comes back into the picture. So we like the Astros in this spot. But we also don’t like the line movement on this game, so we’ll chase a better price and play Houston on the run line.