Jacksonville State at New Mexico State
Wednesday, October 28, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Aggie Memorial Stadium
Jacksonville State is a 3.5-point road favorite at New Mexico State, with the total at 49.5. My play is New Mexico State +3.5 (-110).
Charles Kelly didn’t sugarcoat it last week. Asked about the Aggies, the Jax State coach said “it’ll be the best running attack that we played against.” He’s right, and that’s exactly the problem for a team laying points 1,216 miles from home.
The Gamecocks are 5-2, unbeaten in Conference USA, and coming off a bye. All four of their FBS wins came by 10 points or fewer.
They needed a punt return touchdown to escape Georgia Southern, a late rally at Kennesaw State, and a Garrison Rippa field goal with 44 seconds left to sneak past FIU. That’s a team with a great kicker and a flair for drama, not one that should lay more than a field goal on the road.
James Jones against a linebacker room held together with tape
New Mexico State finished dead last in the country in rushing a year ago. Now it has James Jones, and the whole identity has flipped. The Delaware State transfer leads the league at 111 yards a game, and that number climbs to 140.7 in conference play.
He’s patient, he finds the crease, and he finishes. At Sam Houston he piled up 178 yards and then moved the chains on the fourth-down run that sealed the win.
Here’s where it gets ugly for Jax State. The Gamecocks lost both starting linebackers, Mac Sanders and Walker O’Steen, for the season, and freshman Jameson McCollough has been thrust into the starting lineup. Even before that, this run defense was leaky. Opponents stay on schedule against Jax State on the ground at one of the higher rates in the country, and on third and fourth down the Gamecocks are the worst defense in FBS at getting off the field.
That matters. New Mexico State’s offense is miserable on early downs and lives in third-and-long. Against most defenses, that kills drives. Against this one, the Aggies get second chances all night.
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Caden Creel will have to do it through the air
Jax State’s offense is good, and Caden Creel is the reason. The senior has thrown for 1,637 yards with 12 touchdowns and run for another 500, and the Gamecocks rank among the better passing teams in the country by efficiency. Deondre Johnson is the big-play threat at receiver.
The ground game is a different story. Jax State’s running game grades out as one of the least efficient in the country, and it’s running into a wall. In conference play the Aggies are allowing 51.3 rushing yards per game, the best mark in FBS, and Sam Houston managed 11 yards on 20 carries last week.
If Jax State becomes one-dimensional, Gabe Peterson, the league leader with 5.5 sacks, gets to pin his ears back.
The number is paying for the record, not the matchup
Traditional power ratings like SP+ still like Jax State by a wide margin, and that’s where this line comes from. But opponent-adjusted efficiency, which grades every snap after accounting for the competition, actually rates New Mexico State slightly better overall. Jax State’s defense ranks near the bottom of FBS by that measure.
Then there’s the Conference USA home-field effect, which has been absurd in 2026. Home teams are 24-10 in league games, and road teams are 7-29.
Jax State’s road league games stay tight, too. By the school’s own count, its last seven have all been even or decided by seven or fewer. Close is exactly what I’m betting on. The opener was Jax State -3, and the market pushed it to -3.5. I’ll happily take the hook.
What could blow this up
New Mexico State turns the ball over like it’s trying to get rid of it. The Aggies are giving it away more than twice a game, near the bottom of FBS, and their interception rate is among the worst in the country. Their passing game is weak, and there’s some uncertainty at quarterback, with Adam Damante starting last week and Trey Hedden leading the team in passing yards. If Jax State jumps out early and forces the Aggies to throw, Creel’s arm can turn this into a two-score game. Kelly also had 15 days to prepare, and his team keeps finding ways to win tight finishes.
Projected score
Jones grinds out 120-plus, the Aggies keep converting on third down, and Rippa might still win it at the end, but not by more than a field goal. I’ve got Jacksonville State 26, New Mexico State 24.
The Pick: New Mexico State +3.5 (-110)
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