Mariners vs. Blue Jays Odds & Picks 5/16/22

by | May 16, 2022 | mlb

Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays

Date: Monday, May 16th, 07:07 ET

Location: Rogers Centre

TV: SNET-1

Money Line: Mariners 130 / Blue Jays -155 (MyBookie - Use bonus code PREDICT100 and they’ll give you a 100% REAL CASH bonus up to $300!)

Total Line: 8.5

STARTING PITCHING

Seattle: Chris Flexen (1-5, 4.24)
Toronto: Yusei Kikuchi (1-1, 4.15)

Mariners Projected Lineup

Julio Rodriguez CF
Dylan Moore 2B
J.P. Crawford SS
Abraham Toro 2B
Luis Torrens C
Jesse Winker LF
Eugenio Suárez 3B
Adam Frazier RF
Ty France 1B
Chris Flexen P

Blue Jays Projected Lineup

Matt Chapman 3B
Santiago Espinal 2B
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF
Danny Jansen C
Teoscar Hernández RF
Raimel Tapia LF
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B
George Springer OF
Bo Bichette SS
Yusei Kikuchi P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Seattle Mariners: 16-19-0 SU / OU 18-16-1 / Run Line W/L 19-16-0
Toronto Blue Jays: 18-17-0 SU / OU 14-20-1 / Run Line W/L 14-21-0

The Toronto Blue Jays host the Seattle Mariners on Monday, May 16th at Rogers Centre. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:07 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Toronto as the favorite (-155), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

The Seattle Mariners head into today’s matchup after picking up a close win over the NY Mets by the score of 8-7. The NY Mets came up with 9 hits leading to 8 runs against Seattle’s pitchers. The Mariners lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up 16 hits, leading to 7 runs. Seattle picked up the win, despite getting 130.0 on the moneyline. With the OU line set at 7.5 runs, the Mariners and NY Mets combined to go over this total. This result being part of a larger trend, as Seattle has the over has hit in more than half of their games (18-16-1).

The Mariners come into this game with a 3-2 record of their last 5 contests. However, even with an above .500 their run differential sits at 0 (last 5). In their last 5 contests, Seattle is averaging 4.2 runs per game, right in line with their season average of 3.97. Seattle’s overall series record is just 4-6-1.

Toronto will look to move on from a 3 runs loss to the Rays, falling by the score of 3-0. Even in the loss, the pitching staff allowed just 3 runs on 6 hits. With their 5 hits, the Blue Jays could only muster 0 runs. Toronto came away with a loss, despite being favored on the moneyline (-120.0). For the season, the team has been favored in 24 games, winning at a rate of 57.99%. With this result, the Blue Jays and the Rays combined to fall below the over-under line of 7.0 runs. This result comes as no surprise, as the team’s over-under record is just 14-20-1.

In their last 5 contests, Blue Jays have just 1 win, going 1-4. This recent slump is is backed by a scoring margin of -5 over their last 5 games. In their 5 most recent contests, the team is scoring at a rate of 3.0, similar to their season-long average of 3.71. On the season, Toronto has won more than half of their series, going 6-4-1.

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Pitching Matchup

The Seattle Mariners will send Chris Flexen to the mound with an overall record of 1-5. To date, Flexen has an ERA of 4.24 while lasting an average of 5.67 innings per appearance. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.258. Home runs have been an issue for Flexen, as he is allowing an average of 1.32 per 9 innings pitched. Overall, he is averaging 3.66 per game, on a K rate of 16.0%. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.65 walks per outing.

The Toronto Blue Jays will send Yusei Kikuchi to the mound with an overall record of 1-1. To date, Kikuchi has an ERA of 4.15 while lasting an average of 4.33 innings per appearance. Through 6 outings, opposing teams have combined for a batting average of 0.211. Despite a strong batting average allowed, Kikuchi is prone to giving up home runs, averaging 1.38 homers per 9 innings pitched. Per game, Yusei Kikuchi is averaging 4.5, on a strikeout percentage of 24.0%. Command has been a problem for Kikuchi, as he is giving up 5.88 walks per outing.

Seattle vs Toronto History

Today’s game between Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays is their matchup of the year. Last season, Seattle picked up the series win, winning 4 games compared to 2 for Toronto. The average scoring margin in these games was 4.17, with an over under record of 4-2. Between the games, the average run total was 10.83 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto’s last 5 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Toronto’s last 10 games when playing at home against Seattle

Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Even though the Blue Jays have been struggling on offense, I see them having a breakout scoring performance against Mariners starter Chris Flexen. When looking at his expected WOBA allowed, he sits in just the 21st percentile among starters. On the other side, things are even worse for Yusei Kikuchi, as his in the 14th percentile (xWOBA). I recommend taking the over at 8.5 runs.

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