Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Analysis, MoneylinePick

by | Last updated Sep 8, 2022 | mlb

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Thursday September 8th, 06:45 ET

Location: Citizens Bank Park

TV: Bally Sports Florida

Money Line: Marlins +108 / Phillies -130 (The BEST MLB betting odds are ALWAYS found at BAS!)

Total Line: 7.0


Miami: Sandy Alcantara (12-7, 2.36)
Philadelphia: Kyle Gibson (9-6, 4.48)

Marlins Projected Lineup

J.J. Bleday CF
Miguel Rojas SS
Garrett Cooper 1B
Avisaíl García RF
Jacob Stallings C
Joey Wendle 3B
Lewin Diaz 1B
Brian Anderson LF
Jon Berti 2B
Sandy Alcantara P

Phillies Projected Lineup

Jean Segura 2B
Brandon Marsh CF
J.T. Realmuto C
Matt Vierling CF
Bryson Stott SS
Alec Bohm 1B
Bryce Harper RF
Kyle Schwarber LF
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Kyle Gibson P


Miami Marlins: 55-80-0 SU / OU 57-71-7 / Run Line W/L 63-72-0
Philadelphia Phillies: 75-61-0 SU / OU 69-62-5 / Run Line W/L 68-68-0

The Philadelphia Phillies host the Miami Marlins on Thursday September 8th at Citizens Bank Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 06:45 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Philadelphia as the favorite (-130), with an OU line set at 7.0.

Recent Form

The Marlins will look to rebound from a close, 4-3 loss to Philadelphia. On their way to giving up 4 runs, the Marlins staff allowed 8 hits. The Marlins ended the game with just 3 runs on 10 hits. Miami’s loss came as the underdog, getting 145.0 on the moneyline. Together, the Marlins and Philadelphia stayed below the over-under line set at 7.5 runs. With this result, Miami’s over-under record dropped even further, moving to just 57-71-7.

After their 5 most recent games, the Marlins have gone just 0-5. This mark has come on an average run margin of just -16. Miami’s offense is in the middle of a cold streak, as their offensive production has dipped to just 1.6 runs per game over their last 5 contests. Miami’s overall series record is just 12-27-5.

The Phillies are coming off a tight 4-3 win over the Marlins. For the game, the pitching staff held the Marlins to 3 runs on 10 hits. The Phillies’ offense ended the game with just 4 runs on 8 hits. In the game, Philadelphia was able to take care of business as they were the favorite at -167.0. So far, the team has won 59.0% of the games in which they were favored. Combined, the Phillies and Marlin’s run total fell below the over-under line of 7.5 runs. Philadelphia still has an above .500 over-under record at (69-62-5).

In their last 5 contests, the Phillies have just 2 wins, going 2-3. This recent slump is backed by a scoring margin of -13 over their last 5 games. If Philadelphia is going to pick up their play, they need to improve their offensive performance. Over their last 5 contests, they are averaging just 3.0 runs per game, compared to a season average of 4.68. On the season, Philadelphia has won more than half of their series, going 21-19-3.

Pitching Matchup

The Miami Marlins will send Sandy Alcantara to the mound with an overall record of 12-7. In his previous outings, Alcantara has lasted an average of 7.04 innings, putting together an ERA of just 2.36. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.209. In addition, to his strong BA allowed, he has been able to limit power, allowing just 0.62 home runs allowed per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Sandy Alcantara has a strong strikeout percentage of 23.0%, including a per game average of 6.3. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.22 walks per outing.

Kyle Gibson gets the start for the Phillies, with an overall record of 9-6. Gibson gets the start with an ERA of 4.48. On average, he has lasted 5.39 innings per appearance. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.25. Opposing hitters are hitting home runs at an above average rate against Gibson. This year, he is allowing 1.16 HR’s per 9 innings pitched. On the season, Kyle Gibson has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 20.0%. This has led to an average of 4.46 K’s per game. Gibson comes into the game hoping to improve his walk numbers, as he is averaging 2.69 free passes per outing.

Miami vs Philadelphia History

Today’s matchup between the Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies will be their 16th meeting of the season. Currently, Philadelphia is winning the season series 10-5. The over-under record in this series sits at 5-10. The average run total in these games is 7.74 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 3.4 runs. Last season, Miami picked up the series win, 10 games to 9. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 7-11. Last year, the Marlins and Phillies averaged 7.74 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 3.11 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami’s last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 5 games when playing Miami

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Heading into Thursday’s NL East showdown between Miami and Philadelphia. the Phillies are the favorite on the moneyline. Even though the Sandy Alcantara’s season-long numbers are better than Kyle Gibson’s, the Miami right-hander has given up 6 runs in each of his last 2 starts. Pair his inconsistency with a struggling offense, and I see the Phillies coming away with the win. Week 1 NFL action is upon us! Double your bankroll with a 100% real cash bonus up to $500 when you use bonus code PREDICTEM at Betnow Sportsbook!