Mets vs. Astros Odds & Predictions

by | Jun 21, 2022 | mlb

New York Mets (45-24) vs. Houston Astros (41-25)

When: 8:10 p.m., Tuesday, June 21

Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston

Moneyline: NYM +114/HOU -124 (BetOnline - Fastest Bitcoin payouts on the web! Under 30 minutes!)

Runline: Mets +1.5/Astros -1.5

Total: 9

Starting Pitchers: Trevor Williams (1-3, 3.53 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) vs. Jose Urquidy (5-3, 4.99 ERA, 1.52 WHIP)

Measuring Stick

This isn’t the typical June baseball game. These teams know that they might see each other again when the World Series comes around, which makes this a chance to see how they stack up with the best in the other league and where they might need to make additions next month when the trade deadline starts to sort itself out.

These teams both know that they’re going to be in the playoff hunt as long as nothing weird happens, as the Astros lead by a full ten games over the rest of the AL West, and the Mets have the best record in the National League. As such, expect the teams to come out with a more cautious approach in the early going as they try to figure out what some of the other league’s top competition has as a weakness. For the Astros especially, this is a chance to see if their hot start was legitimate. With a double-digit lead on the AL West and only the Angels really trying to get off the mat, Houston’s biggest worry is getting complacent without much competition to push them. Facing the Mets should help the Astros get a tangible look at where they really are.
Bailout

To be completely honest, Jose Urquidy isn’t really pitching all that well at the moment. Over his past four starts, he hasn’t allowed fewer than three earned runs against anyone, which suggests that he’s vulnerable against a team that’s willing to wait him out and take what’s available to them.

The only reason that Urquidy has gotten away with it was that the Astros’ offense was able to beat up on the Mariners, Rangers, and Royals, three teams who really aren’t going to be close to postseason play when all is said and done. As long as the Mets’ pitchers can keep the Astros from doing much damage, the Mets will have an opportunity to win the game at the plate, something that they’re perfectly set up to do with their league-leading batting average working in their favor.

Patience and Smarts

In the era of three true outcomes, the Mets are a throwback, as they lead the league in batting average and are tied with the Yankees for the most RBIs in baseball. Yet their home run numbers are only middling, as they’ve hit only 64 on the season. But the Mets lead the majors in triples with 16, suggesting two things: they look to take the extra base, and they wait for their pitch to give themselves a chance at taking two bases.
That’s a big change for the Mets compared to past seasons, primarily because of manager Buck Showalter, who is known as one of the most detailed managers in the game. Most teams have de-emphasized proper baserunning, but Showalter made it a big focus, and the Mets have both responded and taken advantage of what other teams will give them. The Mets are tied for the lead in triples precisely because they look for the possibility of three bases of the bat, and they’re always watching where the ball is. A team that leads the league in triples is also going to be a team that looks to go from first to third on a base hit, which makes any baserunners a real threat at any point in the contest.

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Betting Trends

  • The Mets have won four of their past five games.
  • The Mets are 12-3 in their past 15 Tuesday games.
  • The Astros are 17-7 in their past 24 home games.
  • The Astros are 5-0 when the opponent gave up two runs or less in the previous game.
  • The over is 4-1 in the Mets’ past five against the AL West.
  • The over is 15-5-1 in the Mets’ past 21 interleague games.
  • The under is 9-3 in the Astros’ past 12 Tuesday games.
  • The under is 24-10 in the Astros’ past 34 games.
  • The Mets have lost six straight games in Houston to the Astros.
  • The over is 4-1 in the past five meetings in Houston.

Weather Report

Temperatures will sit in the mid-90s and tap out at 93, so it should come as no surprise that this game will be played with the roof closed.

Dan’s Pick

With Urquidy only really getting results when the offense bails him out, I lean toward the Mets here. New York has the right type of team to take advantage of the way the Astros like to play, and they’re smart and aggressive on the basepaths.

Throw in that New York starter Trevor Williams has given up a mere three runs in his past five trips to the mound, and the advantages point to New York to keep its momentum going. Give me the Mets. Bet your Mets vs. Astros prediction for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit up to $500 when you use bonus code PREDICTEM at Betnow Sportsbook!