Mets vs. Brewers: Joe Jensen’s Moneyline Pick | 9/27/24

New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Date: Friday, September 27th, 8:10 ET
Location: American Family Field
TV: SNY
Money Line: Mets -121/Brewers +101
Total Line: 7.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Mets on Friday, September 27th at American Family Field. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

Friday’s matchup between the Mets and Brewers has a first pitch set for 8:10 PM ET from American Family Field in Milwaukee. The Brewers are currently 91-68 and are starting Frankie Montas, while the Mets are 87-70 and are going with Sean Manaea. New York is 2nd in the NL East, and the Brewers are leading the NL Central.

The money line odds have the Mets at -121 compared to the Brewers at +101, and the over/under line is at 7.5 runs. SNY will be televising this one, and the Brewers will be looking to take advantage of playing at home.

Mets vs. Brewers Projected Lineup

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

New York Mets: 87-70 SU / OU 79-73 / Runline 80-77
Milwaukee Brewers: 91-68 SU / OU 80-69 / Runline 80-79

Mets Records & Recent Play

The Mets will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Braves with a 5-1 loss. New York was the +123 underdog on the road going into this matchup. Things started off well for the Mets, as they got on the board with a run in the 1st inning but gave up the lead right away as the Braves scored three times in the bottom of the first.

Luis Severino had a rough outing, giving up four earned runs on seven hits and issuing a walk. The Mets also wasted a big game from Mark Vientos, who homered in the 1st inning but went 2/4.

The Mets are 87-70 overall and trail the Phillies by six games for the NL East lead. New York is 29-21 against other teams in the NL East. They are on the road today to take on the Brewers, with their overall record being for the second-most wins in the NL.

New York lost the final game of their series vs. the Braves and are 6-4 across their last ten games. As the favorite, the Mets are 58-37 this season and 29-33 as the underdog. They have won six straight games as the favorite. At home, the Mets are 46-35 compared to 41-35 on the road. Today’s game will be the first of the series, with the Mets’ overall series record being 28-18-8.

When the Mets are on the road, they are a solid bet against the run line. They have covered the run line in 42 of 76 road games this season. The Mets have been a better bet on the run line as the underdog, covering in 36 of 62 games. They have covered the run line in four straight games when they have been favored.

The New York Mets are on the road today against the Milwaukee Brewers, and the over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The Mets have played in 106 games this season with over/under lines higher than 7.5 runs, which accounts for 67.5% of their games. Their games have had a combined run average of 9.1 runs per game, and their over/under record for the season is 79-73. In games with an over/under line of 7.5 runs, the Mets have a record of 21-17. Their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs per game, and they are currently on a two-game under streak.

Brewers Records & Recent Play

Heading into their last game vs. the Pirates, the Brewers closed out the series with a 5-2 win. Leading up to the game, they were the slight favorite at -120 on the money line. It was a big 3rd inning that turned things in their favor, and the Pirates could only score two runs, both of which came in the 7th.

Aaron Civale put together a good start for the Brewers, going six innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just one walk and struck out five Pirates batters. Milwaukee’s offense was carried by Joey Ortiz, who went 3/3 with a double, run scored, and an RBI.

Milwaukee is 91-68 overall this season and leads the NL Central by ten games over the Cardinals. This year, the Brewers have gone 32-20 in divisional games. The Brewers will take on the Mets at home, and they are 45-33 at home this season.

The Brewers have gone 46-35 on the road this year. They have dropped three straight games when listed as the underdog, and they are 37-30 as the underdog overall. So far, they have been the favorite in 54 of their games, going 54-38. Milwaukee’s overall series record is 29-18-4, and they have won five straight series on the road.

When the Brewers are favored, they are a good team to bet against, as they are just 36-56 vs. the run line. But when they are the underdog, they are a great bet, going 44-23. Their overall run line record is 80-79, with an average run margin of +0.8 runs per game.

When the Milwaukee Brewers play at home, the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, which is lower than their season average of 8.8 runs per game. The Brewers have gone over the 7.5-run line in 22 of their 38 games this season, and the over/under record for the season is 80-69. The over has hit in two straight games for Milwaukee.

Pitching Matchup

Sean Manaea will be looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win vs. the Phillies. In that September 21st start, he went seven innings, giving up three earned runs on six hits. Looking at his overall numbers, Manaea has made 31 starts, and his record for the season is 12-5. The left-hander’s ERA is 3.29, along with a WHIP of 1.06. Opposing batters have a batting average of .191 vs. Manaea this season. Out of his 31 appearances, he has turned in 15 quality starts. Per nine innings, Manaea is averaging 9.25 strikeouts and 3.08 walks.

Frankie Montas gets the start for the Brewers today and will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Diamondbacks. In that start, he went just 2 2/3 innings, giving up seven earned runs, and four homers. Montas finished with a no-decision in the outing. Looking back further, he has given up at least two homers in three of his last four starts. Montas’ ERA for the season is 4.85, along with a record of 7-11. Out of his 29 starts, Montas has nine quality starts and is averaging 8.71 strikeouts per nine innings.

Mets vs. Brewers Offense Outlook

Although the Mets offense has been one of the better units in the league this season, they have a few hitters who have been struggling of late. Brandon Nimmo has gone 6/27 in his last seven games, and Francisco Alvarez is just 5/21 in his last seven games. However, Jose Iglesias has been on fire of late, going 15/34 in his last eight games. He also has a 17-game hitting streak coming into today’s game.

For the season, Pete Alonso leads the Mets with 88 RBIs and has gone deep 34 times. Francisco Lindor is right behind him with 31 homers and has a batting average of .271. Lindor is also on a four-game hitting streak.

Heading into today’s game, the Brewers are 6th in the league in runs scored, averaging 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are 8th in the league in batting average and 3rd in on-base percentage. Milwaukee also does a good job of avoiding strikeouts, as they are 20th in the league in this category.

Willy Adames has been a key part of the Brewers offense this season, as he is 4th in the league in RBIs and has a team-high 32 homers. Adames is also hitting .251 for the season and comes into the game on a four-game hitting streak. William Contreras is also having a good season for the Brewers, as he is batting .281 with 23 homers.

Free Mets vs. Brewers MLB Pick

This is turning out to be a fun Wild Card race in the National League, and the Mets are right in the thick of it. Depending on how things shake out, the Mets could be right back in Milwaukee in the Wild Card round. New York has a lot more to play for in this one, as they want to stack as many wins as they can ahead of their Monday double-header vs. the Braves. I like the Mets on the money line tonight in Milwaukee.