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Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers Game 4 Pick

by | Oct 16, 2018 | mlb

Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers 10/16/18

Time: 9:05 PM ET
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Listed Pitchers: Gio Gonzalez (Mil) vs. Rich Hill (LA)
TV: Fox. FS-1
Moneyline: Brewers +145/Dodgers -155
Over/Under: 7.5

Milwaukee, much to our delight, grabbed Game 3 of this NLCS Monday night with a shut-out, squeezing out of a tight spot in the ninth inning. How are we playing Tuesday night’s Game 4 with our daily free MLB picks?

Game 4 MLB Betting Odds

The Game 4 betting odds opened the Dodgers at around -155, with an over/under of 7.5 runs. The early betting action was holding those figures steady.

Game 4 Set-Up

The Brewers took a 2-1 lead in this best-of-seven affair with a 4-0 decision at Dodger Stadium Monday night. Milwaukee pushed across single runs in the top of the first and sixth innings, then got a two-run dong from SS Orlando Arcia in the seventh. Reliever Jeremy Jeffress loaded the bases in the bottom of the ninth but struck out the last two LA batters to secure the victory.

Milwaukee also cashed in as a +160 dog Monday, while the game played under a total of 7.5 runs.

The Dodgers took the regular-season series from the Brewers four games to three.

Game 4 Starting Arms

Veteran lefty Hill (11-5, 3.66), by our strict standards, is 10/25 on quality starts this season, but two for his last three. Last Monday in that NLDS against Atlanta Hill allowed two runs on four hits and five walks through 4 1/3 innings of a game LA won 6-2. But in his two starts previous to that, albeit against San Diego and San Francisco, Hill gave up just one run and six hits through 14 innings.

On the season the Dodgers are 15-10 with Hill, and thanks to some good run support 6-0 over his last six starts.

In two starts this year against the Brewers Hill allowed just two ER and 11 hits, with 13 strikeouts, through 12 innings. Los Angeles won both those games.

Fellow lefty Gonzalez (10-11, 4.21), by our strict standards, is only 11/33 on quality starts this season, and while he’s only 1/6 since joining the Brewers in that trade with Washington much of that is due to a short leash. In Game 1 of this NLCS Gonzo gave up one run on a solo homer in two innings, before turning the rest of that game over to the bullpen. So in six starts for Milwaukee, he’s allowed seven earned runs and 15 hits through 27 1/3 innings.

The Brewers are 6-0 with Gonzalez so far.

Gonzo’s been pretty good for his new team, but walks are always a concern with him. Meanwhile, Hill was tough on Milwaukee this year. We’re giving the Dodgers the handicapping edge in this pitching match-up.

Get Zank’s take on the Red Sox at Astros Game 3: Free BOS/HOU GM 3 Pick

Game 4 Batting Splits

Milwaukee posted a .254/.323/.419 team batting average/OBP/slugging percentage split against left-handed pitching this season.

Los Angeles posted .240/.324/.409 split against lefties this year.

We’ll give the Brew Crew a short edge in the splits with the sticks for Game 4.

The Bullpens

The Brewers bullpen put up a 3.47 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP this season. And with a quality effort Monday night this unit has now allowed 10 runs and 24 hits through 31 1/3 innings of work in these playoffs.

The LA pen put up a 3.72 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP this season. This unit has allowed just three runs and 15 hits through 22 1/3 innings in these playoffs.

We’re calling the comparison of the bullpens here a wash.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 43-36 in games played at Dodger Stadium this year, which are averaging 8.0 total runs per.
  • Overs are 18-6 in Hill’s starts this year.
  • Unders are 19-13 in Gonzalez’s starts this year.
  • Totals are split 5-5 in Brewers-Dodgers games this season.

Free Game 4 MLB Playoff Picks

We’re giving Los Angeles about half a star with our main baseball handicapping factors, but once again that means the betting value resides with Milwaukee. So we’re going with the Brewers again for our free MLB pick on Game 4. Editor: You can bet this game for free by taking advantage of GTBets 100% Deposit Bonus!

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