Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets

by | Apr 27, 2019 | mlb

Milwaukee Brewers (14-13 SU, 13-14 RL) at New York Mets (13-12 SU, 14-10 RL)
Date: Saturday, April 27, 2019
Time: 7:10 pm ET
Where: Citi Field, New York
Listed Pitchers: Milwaukee: Brandon Woodruff (2-1, 5.81 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) vs. New York: Noah Syndergaard (1-2, 5.90 ERA, 1.28 WHIP)
TV: FS1

Moneyline: Brewers +126/Mets -136
Over/Under: 7.5

The Brewers shook off three straight losses in St. Louis and took out their frustrations on the Mets, who watched ace pitcher Jacob DeGrom get shelled for the third consecutive start as Milwaukee coasted to a 10-2 rout of the Mets in Queens. We watched our bankroll grow. With one win in the books over a New York ace, the Brewers look to add another triumph over a highly respected Mets pitcher when they go up against a struggling Noah Syndergaard. Can Milwaukee keep things rolling, or will the Mets bounce back and prove that they are a team that should be thought of as a genuine contender in the National League?

MLB Betting Odds

The Mets started as fairly solid favorites, but the price has come down on New York since the opening, perhaps as a reaction to the shellacking that the Mets took in the first game of this series. In any case, the Brewers have driven down the price on the Mets, as the majority of money seems to favor the team from Wisconsin in this matchup.

Brewers vs. Mets Set-Up

The Brewers seemed vulnerable going into Queens after losing a sweep in St. Louis and three out of four at home to the Dodgers. Going back to a home loss to the Cardinals, the Brewers entered Friday’s game with a record of 1-8 in their most recent nine games and were up against the Mets’ two best pitchers. But Milwaukee got itself going in a big way by hammering the Mets for 10 runs, seemingly getting themselves off the schneid and sending a message to the Cardinals. The Mets have their own issues to worry about after putting up just two runs in their past two contests. They need to get some more consistency out of their starting lineup, something that has been lacking in recent contests. This season, 20 of the Mets’ 25 games have been decided by more than one run.

Saturday’s Starting Arms

Syndergaard is expected to figure things out as time goes on based on his past success, but so far, he has not started the year well. Only one of his starts could be called a quality start, and he lost that game 4-0 to Washington. In every other game he’s played, he’s given up at least four earned runs. He has pitched better at home, where he’s held opponents to an average of three hits a game, but he’s also only 1-1 in Queens. Woodruff, on the other hand, seems to have the Cardinals solved, but he’s struggled against anyone else. Against St. Louis, he’s given up four earned runs in 10.2 innings. Against the Dodgers, Cubs and Angels, he didn’t get through a single start without yielding at least four runs.

Saturday’s Batting Splits

 These two teams are just middle of the road when it comes to batting averages, but when they get on base, they tend to make the most of their chances. In the Brewers’ case, that often means launching one out of the park. Only Seattle has more home runs this season than the Brew Crew, and the Mariners have had over 100 more at-bats than Milwaukee. The Mets don’t get the big fly anywhere near as often, but they’re not deficient in any offensive category. That’s why both of these teams rank in the top third in the league in runs and have played a fair amount of high-scoring contests.

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The Bullpens

With an ERA of 5.78, the Mets’ bullpen is not exactly what you would call secure. The Brewers aren’t a lot better at 4.46, which means that if either one can get past the starter, there should be plenty of scoring opportunities available.

Totals Report

  • The over is 4-1 in the Brewers’ past five against the NL East.
  • The under is 5-1 in the Brewers’ past six Saturday games.
  • The over is 4-0 in the Mets’ past four Saturday games.
  • The over is 11-2-1 in the Mets’ past 14 games after allowing five or more runs in the previous game.
  • The over is 4-1 in Syndergaard’s past five starts.

Free MLB Pick

The thing I can’t wrap my head around here is why the over/under is so low. The Brewers beat that total by themselves on Friday and Syndergaard is not pitching particularly well. Milwaukee isn’t getting great pitching either, neither team has a bullpen to speak of and the Brewers are excellent at sending fans in the bleachers home with souvenirs. In short, the best pick here seems like the over, as it seems to be riding on Syndergaard’s reputation as opposed to anything that’s happening this season. As for the game itself, the Brewers have the better offense and Syndergaard is struggling too much to trust him at the current price. I’ll take a shot with Milwaukee here.