Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions 8/2/22

by | Aug 2, 2022 | mlb

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Date: Tuesday August 2nd, 07:05 ET
Location: PNC Park
TV: Bally Sports Wisconsin
Money Line: Brewers -245 / Pirates +200 (BetNow)
Total Line: 8.0

STARTING PITCHING

Milwaukee: Corbin Burnes (8-4, 2.31)
Pittsburgh: Bryse Wilson (1-6, 6.31)

Brewers Projected Lineup

Luis Urías 2B
Omar Narváez C
Kolten Wong 2B
Hunter Renfroe RF
Tyrone Taylor CF
Rowdy Tellez 1B
Andrew McCutchen LF
Christian Yelich LF
Willy Adames SS
Corbin Burnes P

Pirates Projected Lineup

Oneil Cruz SS
Cal Mitchell RF
Yoshi Tsutsugo 1B
Ben Gamel LF
Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B
Tyler Heineman C
Josh VanMeter 3B
Kevin Newman 2B
Bryan Reynolds CF
Bryse Wilson P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Milwaukee Brewers: 57-45-0 SU / OU 51-46-5 / Run Line W/L 44-58-0
Pittsburgh Pirates: 40-62-0 SU / OU 41-54-7 / Run Line W/L 52-50-0

The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday August 2nd at PNC Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:05 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Milwaukee as the favorite (-245), with an OU line set at 8.0.

Recent Form

The Brewers come into this matchup having suffered a 5 run loss to the Red Sox (7-2). Milwaukee’s pitching staff finished the game by allowing 11 hits, leading to 7 runs. The Brewers ended the game with just 2 runs on 11 hits. This defeat came despite being favored at -145.0. So far, the team has been the favorite in 85 of their games, winning at a rate of 59.0%. This matchup remained below the over-under line set at 9.5 runs. Even after this game, Milwaukee’s overall over-under record sits at 51-46-5.

In the Brewers’ last 5 games, they are above .500, going 4-1. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at +10. A key to their recent success has been an offense averaging 6.4 runs per game, compared to their season average of 4.65. So far, Milwaukee has won over half of their 33 series played, going 16-11-6.

Pittsburgh will be looking to move on from a tough loss to the Phillies by the score of 8-2. On their way to giving up 8 runs, the Pirates staff allowed 18 hits. At the plate, the Pirates only came through for 2 runs on 9 hits. This loss came as no surprise, as Pittsburgh went into the game as the underdog, getting 150.0. So far, the team has gone into 84 games as the underdog, still finding the win column at a rate of 35.0%. In terms of the over-under, the Pirates and Phillies combined to surpass the line of 7.0 runs. Against the run total, Pittsburgh is just 41-54-7.

The Pirates come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 0-5 over their last 5 games. During this time, the team has a run differential of -12. Even with their recent struggles, the offense has been steady, averaging 2.8 runs per game. This is right in line with their season average of 3.56. Pittsburgh has a below .500 series record of just 8-18-7.

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Pitching Matchup

Corbin Burnes gets the start for the Brewers, with an overall record of 8-4. Through 20 appearances, Burnes has an ERA of just 2.31 while averaging 6.21 innings per appearance. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.187. Burnes is giving up home runs at a rate similar to the league average, allowing 1.01 per 9 innings. On the season, Corbin Burnes has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 33.0%. This includes a per game average of 8.0 K’s per game. In his previous outings, walks have been an issue, as Burnes is averaging 2.24 free passes per outing.

The Pittsburgh Pirates will send Bryse Wilson to the mound with an overall record of 1-6. So far, Wilson has put together an ERA of 6.31. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.25 innings. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.314. Home runs have been an issue for Wilson, as he is allowing an average of 1.3 per 9 innings pitched. Up to this point, Wilson has a strikeout percentage of just 16.0% and a per game average of 3.08. Throughout the season, Wilson has avoided walking batters, allowing just 2.75 per contest.

Milwaukee vs Pittsburgh History

Today’s matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates will be their 14th meeting of the season. So far, Milwaukee is leading the season series, 9-4. Through 13 games, the series over-under record is 5-8, with the average run total sitting at 9.11 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 3.38 runs. Last season, Milwaukee picked up the series win, 14 games to 5. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 10-8. Last year, the Brewers and Pirates averaged 9.11 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 4.89 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
  • Milwaukee is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
  • Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
  • Pittsburgh is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games

Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Heading into Tuesday’s NL Central showdown between Milwaukee and Pittsburgh, the Brewers are the heavy favorite on the moneyline. With reigning Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes on the mound, and a matchup with the Pirates, I recommend taking Milwaukee to win by multiple runs. I like the Brewers on the runline.

Free MLB Pick: Brewers -1.5 Runline

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