Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees Game 1 Pick

by | Oct 4, 2019 | mlb

Minnesota Twins (101-61) vs. New York Yankees (103-59), 10/4/19
Time: 7:07 pm ET Friday, Oct. 4
Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Listed Pitchers: Jose Berrios (14-8, 3.68 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) vs. James Paxton (15-6, 3.82, 1.28)
TV: MLB

Moneyline: Yankees -190/Twins +165 (GTBets) Over/Under: 8.5

The two most homer-happy baseball teams of all-time hook up when the Twins and Yankees open their best-of-five American League divisional-round playoff series Friday night in the Bronx. Minnesota mashed 307 taters this season, while New York bombed 306. And yet, somehow, the total listed for Friday’s Game 1 isn’t double-digits. How are we playing this game for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

MLB playoff betting odds opened New York at around -190 for Game 1 over Minnesota, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Both those figures were holding steady in early betting action. The Yanks could also be found getting around +105, giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Twins vs. Yankees Set-Up

Minnesota won 101 games this season, grabbing a big early lead in the AL Central and rolling on to the division title by eight games over second-place Cleveland. The Twins finished with a 6-1 run to hit the 100-win mark for the second time in Minnesota franchise history. So the Twins are back in the divisional round of the playoffs for the first time since 2010, when they lost to the Yankees. New York, meanwhile, won 103 games this season, pulling away in the AL East, finishing seven games clear of second-place Tampa Bay. The Yanks stumbled through a 1-4 finish last week but still held off Minnesota by two games for home-field advantage in this series. New York is back in the divisional round for the third straight season. The Yankees took the season series from the Twins four games to two.

Game 1 Starting Arms

Lefty Paxton, by our strict standards, finished 12/29 on quality starts this season and three for his last five. Last Friday, he gave up two runs in one inning of a game New York eventually won over Texas 14-7 before leaving with a sore glute. But over his last five starts, he allowed just four runs – three earned – and 14 hits through 25 2/3 innings, with 30 strikeouts. On the season, the Yanks finished 20-9 with Paxton, and 11-0 over his last 11 starts! Over his last three starts against Minnesota, one back in May of this season and two last season while with Seattle, Paxton allowed just three ER and nine hits through 15 frames, with 19 whiffs. His teams won two of those three games. Berrios finished 18/32 on quality starts this year and three for his last four. Last Friday, he held Kansas City to two runs and six hits through six innings of a 6-2 Twins win. And over his last four starts, he allowed nine runs and 21 hits through 26 1/3 innings, with 26 strikeouts. Minnesota finished 19-13 with Berrios this year, 3-1 over his last four starts.

In his most recent appearance against the Yankees, back in April of last season, Berrios got bopped for five runs in four innings of an 8-3 Twins defeat.

Game 1 Batting Splits

Minnesota batted .285/.351/.521 against left-handed pitching this season. Those numbers are why we rank this lineup as the best in Baseball in this split. New York batted .265/.336/.484 against right-handed pitching this season. Numbers like those helped this lineup rank among the top five in this split. These two teams both broke the previous ML record for home runs in a season this year.

The Bullpens

The Twins bullpen posted a 4.17 ERA this season and a 1.32 WHIP while allowing a .740 OPS. The Yankees pen put up a 4.08 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP while allowing a .729 OPS.

MLB Betting Trends

  • Minnesota finished 55-26 on the road this season, best in the Majors by eight games.
  • Minnesota played 22-17 against left-handed starters this season.
  • New York finished 57-44 at home this season.
  • New York played 70-41 against right-handed starters this season.

Totals Report

  • Overs played 79-75 in Twins games this season.
  • Overs played 84-72 in Yankees games this season.
  • Unders played 44-35 in games played at Yankee Stadium this season.
  • Overs played 5-1 in Twins-Yankees games this season.
  • Overs played a combined 35-21 with Paxton and Berrios this season.

Free MLB Pick

We’re giving Paxton a slight edge in the pitching match-up and New York a slight edge in the bullpen comparison, while Minnesota owns a slight edge with the sticks. But the Yankees’ advantages don’t warrant a price so high, so we’re steering clear of a side here. Instead, we can’t help but notice all the dingers these teams hit this season, all the overs they played when they met, and the overs with the two starting pitchers. So we’re playing the over here for our free MLB pick.

Take the OVER 8.5 Runs

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