MLB Futures Betting
MLB Futures Betting: Expert Strategies and Insights
As a sports bettor, MLB futures betting offers an exciting way to predict outcomes over the long term, such as which team will win the World Series, League, Division and more. In this comprehensive guide, we’ll explore essential strategies and insights to help you increase your odds of cashing MLB futures ticket!
Understanding MLB Futures Betting
Futures bets are wagers placed on events that will happen in the future, rather than on individual games. In MLB, futures bets typically involve predicting which team will win the league championship, a division title, or even the World Series. Futures odds are typically released before the season starts and change throughout the season based on team performance and other factors. Generally speaking, this type of bet has very large odds which allow you to bet a small amount to win a much larger amount. While this may not be the greatest of examples (because it’s football, not baseball), the St. Louis Rams won the Super Bowl in 1999 after starting out at 150-1 odds before the season started. A $2 bet would have netted you a cool $300 profit!
Key Factors to Consider in MLB Futures Betting
To increase your chances of success in MLB futures betting, it’s crucial to consider several key factors that can influence the outcome of a season.
Team Roster and Depth
A team’s roster and depth are crucial in determining its potential for success. Look for teams with a strong core of players, including both position players and pitchers, as well as a deep bench that can step up in case of injuries or underperformance.
Strength of Schedule
In MLB, teams play an unbalanced schedule, meaning they face some opponents more often than others. A team’s strength of schedule can have a significant impact on their season performance. Analyze the schedule and consider factors such as home/away games and the number of games against strong or weak opponents.
Historical Performance and Trends
Past performance can be a helpful indicator of a team’s potential success. Look for patterns and trends in a team’s history, such as how well they perform after a strong or weak season, or their performance in certain situations (e.g., during the playoffs).
Value Betting in MLB Futures
Value betting is a key strategy in MLB futures betting, as it involves identifying opportunities where the potential payout is greater than the implied probability. To determine the value in a bet, you can use the following formula:
Value = (Odds * Estimated Probability) – 1
If the value is greater than zero, the bet has positive value and may be worth considering.
Comparing Odds Across Sportsbooks
Odds for MLB futures bets can vary significantly between sportsbooks. By comparing odds across multiple sportsbooks, you can find the best value for your bets and increase your potential return on investment. Two online sportsbooks which often have completely different odds are BetAnySports and Bovada Sportsbook. (Both are ROCK solid!)
| Team | Sportsbook 1 Odds | Sportsbook 2 Odds |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | +600 | +550 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | +700 | +750 |
Bankroll Management and Staking Strategies
Proper bankroll management and staking strategies are essential in MLB futures betting, as they can help you minimize risk and maximize returns. Consider using a fixed or proportional betting strategy, where you risk a set amount or percentage of your bankroll on each bet. This can help you avoid chasing losses or overextending your bankroll.
Tip: Keep these bets small. Think low risk, high reward. You don’t want to tie up half your bankroll on a bet where you wager $500 to win $2000 when you could take that same $500 and roll it over a bunch of times by placing straight wagers and generate $10,000 over the same time period.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the best time to place MLB futures bets?
There is no definitive “best” time to place MLB futures bets, as odds can change throughout the season based on team performance and other factors. However, placing bets early in the season or during key moments (e.g., after a significant trade or injury) can potentially offer better value. It’s essential to monitor odds and team developments to identify the best opportunities for your wagers.
How do I calculate the implied probability of a futures bet?
To calculate the implied probability of a futures bet, use the following formula:
Implied Probability = 1 / (Odds + 1) * 100
For example, if a team has odds of +500, the implied probability would be:
Implied Probability = 1 / (5 + 1) * 100 = 16.67%
What types of MLB futures bets are available?
There are various types of MLB futures bets, including bets on the winner of the World Series, league championships, and division titles. Additionally, some sportsbooks offer player-specific futures bets, such as predicting the regular season MVP or Cy Young Award winner.
How can I use advanced statistics in MLB futures betting?
Advanced statistics, such as Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), and Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), can provide deeper insights into team and player performance. By incorporating these metrics into your analysis, you can gain a better understanding of a team’s true potential and identify value in futures bets.
Are longshot bets worth considering in MLB futures betting?
Longshot bets can offer significant potential returns in MLB futures betting, but they also come with higher risk. When considering longshot bets, it’s essential to weigh the potential reward against the likelihood of the outcome. If you believe a team has been undervalued by oddsmakers and has a realistic chance of achieving the predicted outcome, a longshot bet may be worth considering.
In conclusion, MLB futures betting offers a unique and potentially lucrative opportunity for baseball bettors to predict long-term outcomes in the world of baseball. By considering factors such as team roster and depth, strength of schedule, and historical performance, you can make informed decisions on your wagers. Additionally, employing value betting strategies, comparing odds across sportsbooks, and practicing proper bankroll management can further increase your chances of success. Stay up-to-date on team news and developments and monitor odds throughout the season to identify the best betting opportunities.
Tip: If you’re going to place futures bets before the season starts, it’s imperative that you trust the site in which you’re placing your wagers. Make sure the bookie in question has been in business for at least 5-10 years. Sportsbooks are businesses. While it’s not typical for a book to go out of business, it has happened in the past. A great option for placing futures bets is Everygame Sportsbook. They’ve been in business since the 1990’s. I think it’s safe to say they’re not going anywhere! We’ve worked out a deal with them where if you deposit $100 to $500 and then go directly to their “Special Offers” page and enter bonus promo code PREDICTEM, they’ll match your deposit with a $100 real cash bonus! A great offer from a GREAT betting site! You’ll need to signup through this special link to qualify for the offer!
