MLB Picks: Blue Jays vs. Red Sox 4/19/22

by | Apr 19, 2022 | mlb

Toronto Blue Jays (6-4) vs. Boston Red Sox (5-5)
When: 7:10 p.m., Tuesday, April 19
Where: Fenway Park, Boston
Moneyline: TOR +130/BOS -140
Runline: Blue Jays +1.5/Red Sox -1.5
Total: 9.5

Starting Pitchers: Yusei Kikuchi (0-1, 5.40 ERA, 2.10 WHIP) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (1-0, 4.50 ERA, 1.10 WHIP)
(Sportsbooks offering dimeline betting >>>)

Meat Grinder

So far, the early season suggests that there will be no pulling away from anyone among the four AL East giants in this year-long race. The expansion of the playoffs to six teams per league means that Toronto, Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay could all make the postseason (Baltimore doesn’t have a hope in the slightest), and the early returns suggest all four are going to keep bumping each other off and beating up on the Orioles throughout the year.

That makes games and series like this one critical because even taking two of three against one of the big four division rivals can make a big difference when it comes to the end of the season. Few teams know that reality better than the Red Sox, who barely emerged with a 10-9 series win over both the Yankees and Blue Jays last season. Had those two gone the opposite way, Boston would have found itself on the wrong side of the playoff race rather than reaching the ALCS.

Jump Start

Toronto is well known for its offense, and the Blue Jays love to get off to fast starts with their bats. So far, Toronto is one of just four teams averaging one run or better in the first inning, making the Jays an ideal Yes bet if you’re the type who likes to make a bet on whether or not a run will be scored in the first frame. The Blue Jays can, of course, instantly win this bet on their own with a home run, as they’ve hit 14 of them in 10 games in this young season, but it’s their overall hitting that really makes this bet a solid play. Toronto bats .252 and has a .435 slugging percentage to go along with 42 runs in 10 games, a number that’s actually low for this team. With Boston putting up some solid numbers of its own, there’s a good chance we see an early score.

Getting Their Feet Wet

While Toronto tends to get games started in fast fashion, Boston tends to take its time getting into a series. The Red Sox have now played three series in 2022, and in all three of them, they’ve been a losing bet. That’s not the worst thing in the world for the standings because Boston’s 5-5 mark shows that it’s a team that does make adjustments when things don’t go very well in the opener. But playing trends are often all that’s really available at this point in the year, as we don’t really know these teams and what they’ll be for the year yet.

Eventually, Boston will figure out how to get started in the series from the opening pitch, but for the time being, the Red Sox don’t make quick starts, and they’re facing one of the teams that’s most likely to get off to a strong start in their first meeting of the year. It’s not an ideal situation for Eovaldi and Boston to face.

Betting Trends

  • The Blue Jays are 4-0 in their past four series openers.
  • The Blue Jays are 7-2 in their past nine games as an underdog.
  • The Red Sox are 4-1 in their past five games overall.
  • The Red Sox are 4-9 in their past 13 Tuesday games.
  • The under is 9-1 in the Blue Jays’ past ten road games.
  • The under is 6-0-1 in the Blue Jays’ past seven Tuesday games.
  • The under is 5-0 in the past five Red Sox games following a loss.
  • The over is 21-6-2 in the past 29 Red Sox home games.
  • The Blue Jays have won four of five against Boston.
  • The under is 4-1 in the past five meetings in Boston.

Weather Report

This won’t be a great night for baseball, with temperatures at 42 degrees at first pitch on a cloudy night in Boston. Wind could push balls to right-center, as winds will blow out at 10 miles per hour.

Dan’s Pick

Given the power in Toronto’s bats and the Blue Jays’ tendencies to get off to quick starts, I think the value lies with taking the Jays at plus money. Toronto has tended to plate a fair amount of runs fairly early, and Nathan Eovaldi isn’t exactly the type to go out and shut down the opposition completely. He’s much more inconsistent, and inconsistent isn’t where you want to be against the likes of George Springer and Vlad Guerrero Jr. I’ll take the Jays on the moneyline.

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