MLB Picks: Dodgers vs. Cubs 5/5/21

by | May 5, 2021 | mlb

Los Angeles Dodgers (17-14) vs. Chicago Cubs (14-16)

When: 7:40 p.m., Wednesday, May 5

Where: Wrigley Field, Chicago

Moneyline: LAD -170/CHC +150 (BAS - Underdogs pay more and favorites cost less! It’s the ONLY way to bet on baseball! Football/Basketball offer -105 sides and totals!!!)

Runline: Dodgers -1.5/Cubs +1.5

Total: 7.5

Starting Pitchers: Walker Buehler (1-0, 3.16 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) vs. Adbert Alzolay (1-2, 4.71 ERA, 0.90 WHIP)

Feeling the Pressure?

The past two weeks can no longer be ignored: the Dodgers are struggling. Over the past 16 games, Los Angeles has put up a 4-12 record, which would earn you a top 10 pick in the NFL. That’s given bettors a pair of opportunities involving Los Angeles: fading a team that hasn’t been an underdog all season long and betting their absurdly low over totals.

If you’d done either of these things, you’d have cashed pretty nicely because the over is an incredible 10-2 over Los Angeles’ past 12 games and hasn’t yet been set higher than eight. Tuesday made some sense to set a low total, given that the Dodgers sent two top pitchers to the mound, but the Cubs blew up the plan by tagging the Dodgers in the first inning and scoring seven runs in a seven-inning game. Given that nine of the ten overs have seen the Dodgers give up at least four runs (the exception was an 8-0 shutout of Cincinnati on April 28), taking the Cubs to get three or more could be a solid prop to play, especially if Chicago gets into the Los Angeles bullpen.

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Arms Available?

It’s a big plus for the Dodgers that they’ve got Buehler going to the mound in this one because Los Angeles absolutely cannot afford to go deep into its bullpen again after Clayton Kershaw couldn’t make it to the second inning on Tuesday. So far this season, Buehler has been Mr. Reliable for the Dodgers, as he’s gone at least six innings in all five of his starts. Not only that but he’s earned a quality start four times, shutting out Washington and giving up exactly two runs in three other starts.

This speaks to both the possibility of the over and of Buehler lifting the Dodgers to a victory and saving most of the bullpen after they had to pitch eight of 14 innings on Tuesday. If Buehler is giving up two runs in six innings, a repeat would leave the Cubs nine outs to get one run and win the prop bet I mentioned earlier, and it also means the Dodgers would need to come pretty close to triggering the over if they’re going to get off the mat. Given the situation, if you’re going to take the Dodgers, you’d probably be wise to go for the over as well and get plus money if you’re right.

Figuring It Out

The Cubs weren’t expected to contend this season, so a slow start didn’t surprise anyone, but it was shocking just how poor the North Siders were at the plate to start the season. The Cubs built their reputation pretty early as a team that couldn’t hit much of anything, as they opened the year with six unders in seven games.

But the Cubs are starting to figure out how to hit, and more importantly, they’re figuring out how to use their ballpark properly. As an older park in a spot where winds dictate a lot of the play, triples are a big part of a successful equation for the Cubs. Chicago has now banged out eight triples (behind only the Dodgers, Rockies, and Diamondbacks) and is more than willing to stretch singles and doubles into an extra-base, as they’re third in the majors in stolen bases with 24. Plus, the Cubs are showing some power as of late, and their 40 home runs now rank third in the majors.

Add it all up, and there’s a reason why the Cubs have played to the over in seven of their past nine contests. This is one to take advantage of while you can.

Betting Trends

  • The Dodgers are 1-5 in their past six against the NL Central.
  • The Dodgers are 46-18 in their past 64 games as a road favorite.
  • The Cubs are 5-1 in their past six games as a home underdog.
  • The Cubs are 6-2 in their past eight home games.
  • The over is 4-0 in the Dodgers’ past four road games.
  • The over is 10-1 in the Dodgers’ past 11 games as a favorite.
  • The over is 6-1 in the Cubs’ past seven games.
  • The Dodgers have dropped six of their past seven trips to Wrigley Field.
  • The over is 9-3 in the past 12 meetings.

Weather Report

The over might be a bit more challenging Wednesday with the weather not cooperating, as the wind will blow east at eight miles per hour, heading toward the third-base dugout. Temperatures will be cool at 50 degrees at first pitch.

Dan’s pick

The Dodgers are not playing well at all, but it’s still hard to bet against Buehler. If the Dodgers give him anything resembling run support, he’s good enough to win the game entirely by himself if he has to, and the winds at Wrigley likely won’t be cooperating with the Cubs’ efforts in this one.

That said, Buehler hasn’t been getting the support he needs, and the bullpen hasn’t exactly been trustworthy for Los Angeles. Even though the Dodgers are 3-2 in games where Buehler has gotten the call, he’s landed four no-decisions on the season. That’s not deGrom levels of a lack of support, but it still says that the Dodgers aren’t doing their job. Considering that nine of the 20 runs scored in games where Buehler pitches have come off the bullpen, that says that it’s the pen that’s failing more than the hitters. As such, that makes the Cubs a risk worth taking in this one. Give me Chicago. Bankroll running low? Boost your betting account balance by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 at GTBets Sportsbook! This is a REAL cash credit to your account; not a crappy match play!