MLB Picks: Giants vs. Rockies 5/16/22

by | May 16, 2022 | mlb

San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies

Date: Monday, May 16th, 08:40 ET

Location: Coors Field

TV: NBCS BA

Money Line: Giants -145 / Rockies +122 (WagerWeb - One of the most underrated bookies on the web!)

Total Line: 11.0

STARTING PITCHING

San Francisco: Alex Wood (3-2, 3.6)
Colorado: Antonio Senzatela (2-2, 4.88)

Giants Projected Lineup

Thairo Estrada SS
Brandon Crawford SS
Wilmer Flores 3B
LaMonte Wade Jr RF
Mike Yastrzemski CF
Evan Longoria 3B
Joey Bart C
Joc Pederson RF
Brandon Belt 1B
Alex Wood P

Rockies Projected Lineup

Yonathan Daza CF
Elias Díaz C
Ryan McMahon 3B
Randal Grichuk CF
Brendan Rodgers 2B
José Iglesias SS
C.J. Cron 1B
Connor Joe 1B
Charlie Blackmon RF
Antonio Senzatela P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

San Francisco Giants: 20-14-0 SU / OU 18-15-1 / Run Line W/L 17-17-0
Colorado Rockies: 17-17-0 SU / OU 19-14-1 / Run Line W/L 15-19-0

The Colorado Rockies host the San Francisco Giants on Monday, May 16th at Coors Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 08:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places San Francisco as the favorite (-145), with an OU line set at 11.0.

Recent Form

The Giants are hoping to get back on track after falling to St. Louis, 15-6. San Francisco’s pitching staff finished the game by allowing 17 hits, leading to 15 runs. The Giants ended the game with 7 hits of their own, leading to 6 runs. This defeat came despite being favored at -135.0. Through 28 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 68.0%. This game went over the posted over-under line of 7.0 runs. San Francisco now has an over-under record of (18-15-1).

The Giants come into this game with a 3-2 record over their last 5 contests. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at 6. A key to their recent success has been an offense averaging 6.0 runs per game, compared to their season average of 4.97. So far, San Francisco has won over half of their 12 series played, going 6-4-2.

The Rockies will look to bounce back from a tight 8-7 loss to the Royals. Colorado’s pitching staff gave up 9 hits, leading to 8 runs for the Royals. At the plate, the Rockies scored 7 times on 9 hits. Colorado dropped the game despite being favored at -137.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 13 games, winning at a rate of 62.0%. The Rockies and Royals went over the run total line set at 11.0 runs. Overall, the team has gone over the betting line in over half of their games, going 19-14-1.

The Rockies come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 1-4 over their last 5 games. This recent slump is backed by a scoring margin of -12 over their last 5 games. Their recent record comes while the offense has picked up its play, averaging 6.0 runs over their last 5 game, compared to their overall figure of 4.71. On the season, Colorado has won more than half of their series, going 6-4-1.

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Pitching Matchup

San Francisco will roll with Alex Wood (3-2) as their starter. So far, Wood has put together an ERA of 3.6. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 5.0 innings. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.274. Opposing batters have been able to drive the ball with power against Wood, averaging 1.2 homers per 9 innings pitched. On the season, Alex Wood has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 23.0% while averaging 5.0 K’s per game. Throughout the season, Wood has avoided walking batters, allowing just 2.7 per contest.

The Colorado Rockies will send Antonio Senzatela to the mound with an overall record of 2-2. To date, Senzatela has an ERA of 4.88 while lasting an average of 4.53 innings per appearance. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander, with a batting average of 0.402. Opposing batters are hitting for power at a below-average rate against Senzatela, as he is allowing just 0.66 per 9 innings. Senzatela is in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts, averaging just 1.33 K’s per game. This includes a strikeout percentage of 6.0%. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 2.28 walks per contest.

San Francisco vs Colorado History

Today’s matchup between the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies will be their 3rd meeting of the season. San Francisco has the lead in the series at 3-0. Through 3rd games, the series’ over-under record is 3-0, with the average run total sitting at 9.74 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 5.33 runs. Last season, San Francisco picked up the series win, 15 games to 4. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 9-10. Last year, the Giants and Rockies averaged 9.74 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 4.26 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Colorado
  • San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Colorado
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado’s last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Colorado’s last 7 games at home

San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies Prediction

Even though the Giants come into the game having lost two straight games, they have an opportunity to bounce back in a big way against Antonio Senzatela. Even though Senzatela’s ERA of 4.88 doesn’t jump off the chart, advanced metrics place him near the bottom of the league among starters. Currently, he is the worst rated pitcher in expected batting average and in the 7th percentile in expected slugging percentage. I recommend grabbing the Giants on the moneyline.

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