MLB Picks – Monday’s Top Plays 5/14/18

By Rich Crew, Expert Handicapper

Today’s MLB picks of the day come from the National League with the Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs afternoon game and Wrigley Field and tonight’s Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks match at Chase Field.

Atlanta Braves (1st – NL East) at Chicago Cubs (4th – NL Central)

(J. Teheran (3-1) ERA: 3.14 vs. J. Quintana (4-2) ERA: 4.42)

Both teams come into this game hot winning five of their last six. The Cubs are a good 13-7 at home this season, but the Braves are a National League “best” 16-8. The odds board at 5Dimes lists the Cubs as a -163 favorite on the money line with the total off the board.

Julio Tehran has been solid on the road in 2018 going 2-1 over four starts with some impressive metrics recording a 2.05 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. They came prior to the 2017 season, but the Braves are perfect in his starts at Wrigley Field going 3-0 with Teheran allowing five runs over 20 innings. Atlanta starter Jose Quintana has been impressive in his last three allowing just one run over 17 innings pitched, but his control hasn’t been perfect with eight walks in the three starts. Note he was lit up for seven runs in just 2 1/3 in an earlier meeting between these two clubs at home.

Take the Atlanta Braves +153 BEST LINE: 5Dimes

Milwaukee Brewers (1st – NL Central) at Arizona Diamondbacks (1st – NL West)

(Junior Guerra (2-3) ERA: 3.09 vs. P Corbin (4-0) ERA: 2.12)

Two first-place teams take to the field tonight when the Brewers open a three-game set against the Diamondbacks at Chase Field. On the MLB betting board at BetOnline, Arizona is a -147 home-favorite with the total listed at eight runs.

At first glance, most handicappers will likely be looking to lay down on the Diamondbacks with Patrick Corbin on the mound and what’s not to like? On the surface, the lefty has a 4-0 W/L record and 2.12 overall this season, and he’s been even better at home notching all four of his wins and registering a sizzling 1.32 ERA with a 0.59 WHIP. However, digging deeper you’d see that the Diamondbacks have lost his last four starts versus the Brewers and that his career back numbers against tonight’s projected line-up are dismal with the batters hitting .362 with a .621 slugging percentage in 58 at-bats.

Milwaukee starter Junior Guerra hasn’t impressed with nine runs allowed over his last two starts covering ten innings. He does catch a Diamondbacks team that is struggling to put runs on the board, and Guerra pitched well in his only career start at Chase Field last season recording a quality start, and it’s a small sample size, but he has held the Arizona lineup to a .167 batting average over 18 at bats.

The value tonight is with the visitor who comes into this game with a strong 14-8 road record and catches Arizona mired in a five-game losing streak and may be licking their wounds after being swept by the Nationals.

Take the Milwaukee Brewers +137BEST LINE: BetOnline

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