MLB Picks: Nationals vs. Braves

by | Last updated Sep 20, 2022 | mlb

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves

Date: Tuesday September 20th, 07:20 ET

Location: Truist Park

TV: Bally Sports South

Money Line: Nationals +255 / Braves -320 (Use bonus code PREDICTEM and the oldest bookie on the web will give you a 100% real cash bonus up to $500! —> Everygame Sportsbook)

Total Line: 8.5


Washington: Patrick Corbin (6-18, 6.11)
Atlanta: Charlie Morton (8-6, 4.18)


Washington Nationals: 51-95-0 SU / OU 69-70-8 / Run Line W/L 65-82-0
Atlanta Braves: 91-55-0 SU / OU 73-66-8 / Run Line W/L 77-70-0

The Atlanta Braves host the Washington Nationals on Tuesday September 20th at Truist Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:20 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Atlanta as the favorite (-320), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

The Nationals are hoping to get back on track after falling to Atlanta, by a score of 5-2. In the loss, Washington’s pitchers gave up 5 runs on 10 hits. With their 9 hits, the Nationals could only muster 2 runs. Washington’s loss came as the underdog, getting 300.0 on the moneyline. Together, the Nationals and Atlanta stayed below the over-under line set at 8.5 runs. This outcome pushed Washington’s over-under record further below .500 at 69-70-8.

In their last 5 games, the Nationals are below .500, at 2-3. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -6. On offense, Washington’s offense has experienced a dip in production, averaging 3.0 runs per game over their last 5 contests. Washington’s overall series record is just 11-31-5.

Atlanta will look to keep things rolling in today’s game, as they most recently took down Nationals by 3 runs 5-2. For the game, the pitching staff held the Nationals to 2 runs on 9 hits. Offensively, they finished with 5 runs on 10 hits. Heading into action, Atlanta was the favorite at -400.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 125 games, winning at a rate of 70.0%. Combined, the Braves and Nationals’ run total fell below the over-under line of 8.5 runs. Even still, Atlanta games have still gone over the betting total over half of the time, at 73-66-8.

Across their last 5 contests, the Braves are above .500, going 4-1. Their recent success is backed by an average scoring margin of +9 (last 5). Atlanta has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 4.4 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 4.94. On the season, Atlanta has won more than half of their series, going 26-15-6.

Pitching Matchup

Washington will roll with Patrick Corbin (6-18) as their starter. So far, Corbin has put together an ERA of 6.11. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 5.07 innings. Compared to other starters, the left-hander has a high BA allowed, currently sitting at 0.317. Opponents are hitting for power against Corbin, as his HR/9 figure sits at 1.65. In terms of strikeouts, Patrick Corbin has a strong strikeout percentage of 18.0%, including a per game average of 4.28. In his previous outings, walks have been an issue, as Corbin is averaging 2.81 free passes per outing.

Charlie Morton gets the start for the Braves, with an overall record of 8-6. To date, Morton has an ERA of 4.18, while lasting an average of 5.61 innings per appearance. Morton will take the mound a BA allowed of 0.224. Home runs have been a concern for Morton as he is allowing 1.37 per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Charlie Morton has a strong K% of 28%, including a per game average of 6.68. Morton comes into the game hoping to improve his walk numbers, as he is averaging 3.2 free passes per outing.

Washington vs Atlanta History

Today’s matchup between the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves will be their 15th meeting of the season. Currently, Atlanta is winning the season series 11-3. The over-under record in this series sits at 9-5. The average run total in these games is 9.16 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 4.71 runs. Dating back to last season, Atlanta picked up 14 wins compared to 5, taking the season series. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 9-10, with the average run total being 9.16 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 2.63 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
  • The total has gone OVER in 13 of Washington’s last 19 games when playing Atlanta
  • Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
  • Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves Prediction

Heading into Tuesday’s NL East matchup between Washington and Atlanta, the Braves are the heavy favorite on the moneyline. Even though Patrick Corbin has pitched better of late, I don’t see him holding up well vs a dangerous Atlanta lineup. Look for the Braves to come away with an easy win. I recommend taking Atlanta on the runline.

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