MLB Picks: Padres vs. Rockies

by | Jul 14, 2022 | mlb

San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies

Date: Thursday, July 14th, 03:10 ET

Location: Coors Field

TV: ATT SportsNet-RM

Money Line: Padres -125 / Rockies +105 (Get the best MLB lines >>> Costs less, pays more and increases your odds of winning!)

Total Line: 12.0

STARTING PITCHING

San Diego: Blake Snell (1-5, 4.66)
Colorado: Kyle Freeland (4-7, 4.7)

Padres Projected Lineup

Trent Grisham CF
Esteury Ruiz LF
Jorge Alfaro C
Austin Nola C
Manny Machado 3B
Jose Azocar LF
Luke Voit 1B
Ha-seong Kim SS
Jake Cronenworth 2B
Blake Snell P

Rockies Projected Lineup

Ryan McMahon 3B
José Iglesias SS
Brendan Rodgers 2B
Connor Joe 1B
Randal Grichuk RF
Elias Díaz C
Kris Bryant LF
C.J. Cron 1B
Charlie Blackmon RF
Kyle Freeland P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

San Diego Padres: 50-40-0 SU / OU 40-48-2 / Run Line W/L 43-47-0
Colorado Rockies: 40-49-0 SU / OU 42-41-6 / Run Line W/L 46-43-0

The Colorado Rockies host the San Diego Padres on Thursday, July 14th at Coors Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 03:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places San Diego as the favorite (-125), with an OU line set at 12.0.

Recent Form

The Padres are hoping to get back on track, after falling to the Rockies by a score of 10-6. San Diego’s pitching staff finished the game by allowing 18 hits, leading to 10 runs. Offensively, they finished with 6 runs on 11 hits. Padres suffered the loss, despite being favored at -185.0. So far, the team has been the favorite in 63 of their games, winning at a rate of 56%. With the over-under line set at 10.5 runs, the Padres and Rockies combined to go over this total. Even with this game going over the total, San Diego still has an over-under record of just 40-48-2.

Over the Padres last 5 contests, they have a record of just 1-4. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -19. On offense, San Diego’s offense has experienced a dip in production, averaging 3.2 runs per game over their last 5 contests. So far, San Diego has won over half of their 28 series played, going 13-10-5.

The Colorado Rockies will be looking to pick up another win, as they most recently defeated the Padres by 4 runs (10-6). Colorado’s pitching staff gave up 11 hits, leading to 6 Padres runs. At the plate, the Rockies scored 10 times on 18 hits. Despite being the underdogs, getting 155.0 on the moneyline, the Rockies still picked up the win. In their 66 games as the underdog, their straight-up win percentage sits at 41.0%. The Rockies and Padres went over the run total line set at 10.5 runs. Overall, the team has gone over the betting line in over half of their games, going 42-41-6.

In their last 5 games, the Rockies have put together a record of 3-2. They have managed to pick up these wins despite having a negative run differential over their last 5 games (-1). Colorado is still playing winning baseball, even with their offense averaging just 5.0 runs per game, compared to a season-long mark of 4.51. Colorado has a below .500 series record of just 13-13-2.

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Pitching Matchup

San Diego will roll with Blake Snell (1-5) as their starter. To date, Snell has an ERA of 4.66 while lasting an average of 5.12 innings per appearance. Through 9 outings, opposing teams have combined for a batting average of 0.223. Snell is giving up home runs at a rate similar to the league average, allowing 0.98 per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Blake Snell has a strong strikeout percentage of 30.0%, including a per-game average of 6.78. Command has been a problem for Snell, as he is giving up 4.86 walks per outing.

Colorado will roll with Kyle Freeland (4-7) as their starter. So far, Freeland has put together an ERA of 4.7. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 5.72 innings. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander, with a batting average of 0.273. Opposing batters are hitting for power at a below-average rate against Freeland, as he is allowing just 1.02 per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Kyle Freeland has a strong K% of 15.0%, including a per game average of 3.88. Command has been a problem for Freeland, as he is giving up 2.67 walks per outing.

San Diego vs Colorado History

Today’s matchup between the San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies will be their 11th meeting of the season. Colorado holds the edge in the series at 7-3. Through 10 games, the series’ over-under record is 4-6, with the average run total sitting at 7.68 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 3.5 runs. Dating back to last season, Colorado picked up 11 wins compared to 8, taking the season series. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 7-12. Last year, the Padres and Rockies averaged 7.68 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 3.05 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Colorado
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego’s last 5 games when playing Colorado
  • Colorado is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Diego
  • Colorado is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home

San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies Prediction

Heading into Thursday’s NL West showdown between San Diego and Colorado, the Padres have the edge on the moneyline. Even though Blake Snell appears to have turned a bit of a corner on the mound, I don’t see that holding up at Coors Field. Look for the Rockies to come away with the win. I like Colorado on the moneyline.

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