Red Sox vs. Rays Betting Predictions 7/14/22

by | Jul 14, 2022 | mlb

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays

Date: Thursday, July 14th, 07:10 ET

Location: Tropicana Field

TV: NESN

Money Line: Red Sox +108 / Rays -130 (Get the best MLB lines >>> Costs less, pays more! Who wouldn’t want that?)

Total Line: 7.5

STARTING PITCHING

Boston: Kutter Crawford (2-2, 4.5)
Tampa Bay: Drew Rasmussen (5-3, 3.1)

Red Sox Projected Lineup

Franchy Cordero RF
Christian Vázquez 1B
Alex Verdugo LF
Trevor Story 2B
Jackie Bradley Jr. RF
Rafael Devers 3B
J.D. Martinez LF
Xander Bogaerts SS
Jarren Duran CF
Kutter Crawford P

Rays Projected Lineup

Francisco Mejía C
Brett Phillips CF
Isaac Paredes 3B
Josh Lowe RF
Yandy Díaz 3B
Taylor Walls SS
Harold Ramirez RF
Ji-Man Choi 1B
Randy Arozarena LF
Drew Rasmussen P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Boston Red Sox: 47-42-0 SU / OU 38-44-7 / Run Line W/L 48-41-0
Tampa Bay Rays: 48-40-0 SU / OU 39-44-5 / Run Line W/L 42-46-0

The Tampa Bay Rays host the Boston Red Sox on Thursday, July 14th at Tropicana Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Tampa Bay as the favorite (-130), with an OU line set at 7.5.

Recent Form

The Red Sox will look to bounce back from a tough loss to the Rays by the score of 4-1. In the loss, Boston’s pitchers gave up 4 runs on 5 hits. With their 5 hits, the Red Sox could only muster 1 run. The loss came as Boston was the betting underdog, getting 170.0 on the moneyline. Combined, the Red Sox and Rays fell short of the over-under betting line of 6.5 runs. With this result, Boston’s over-under record dropped even further, moving to just 38-44-7.

After their 5 most recent games, the Red Sox have gone just 2-3. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -3. In their last 5 contests, Boston is averaging 5.0 runs per game, right in line with their season average of 4.70. Boston’s overall series record is just 12-12-4.

Tampa Bay will look to keep things rolling in today’s game, as they most recently took down Red Sox by 3 runs 4-1. In the win, the pitching staff allowed just 1 run on 5 hits. The Rays’ offense ended the game with just 4 runs on 5 hits. Heading into action, Tampa Bay was the favorite at -200.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 60 games, winning at a rate of 60.0%. Combined, the Rays and Red Sox run total fell below the over-under line of 6.5 runs. Now, Tampa Bay had an over-under record of 39-44-5.

In their last 5 games, the Rays have put together a record of 3-2. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at +3. Overall, the Rays are averaging 4.17 runs per contest. But, over their last 5 outings, they have been scoring at a clip of 5.2 runs per contest. On the season, Tampa Bay has won more than half of their series, going 14-12-2.

Pitching Matchup

Boston will roll with Kutter Crawford (2-2) as their starter. To date, Crawford has an ERA of 4.5 while lasting an average of 2.5 innings per appearance. Crawford comes into the game with a batting average allowed of 0.239. Home runs have been an issue for Crawford, as he is allowing an average of 1.5 per 9 innings pitched. Crawford is in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts, averaging just 3.17 K’s per game. This includes a strikeout percentage of 28.9%. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 4.5 walks per contest.

Drew Rasmussen gets the start for the Rays, with an overall record of 5-3. Heading into the game, Rasmussen has appeared in 14 contests, posting an ERA of just 3.1. On average, he pitches 4.73 innings per appearance. In his previous outings, right-hander opponents are hitting 0.234 off the right-hander. Opposing batters are hitting for power at a below-average rate against Rasmussen, as he is allowing just 0.95 per 9 innings. Rasmussen has accumulated a strikeout percentage of 21.0% and a per-game average of 4.07. Command has been a problem for Rasmussen, as he is giving up 2.7 walks per outing.

Boston vs Tampa Bay History

Today’s matchup between the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays will be their 10th meeting of the season. Currently, Tampa Bay is winning the season series 7-2. The over-under record in this series sits at 2-7. The average run total in these games is 11.13 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 3.11 runs. Dating back to last season, Tampa Bay picked up 12 wins compared to 11, taking the season series. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 15-8, with the average run total being 11.13 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 4.17 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston’s last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston’s last 5 games on the road
  • Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Boston
  • Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boston

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Heading into Thursday’s AL East matchup between Boston and Tampa Bay, the over-under line is set at just 7.5 runs. Even with this low total, I recommend taking the under, as both Drew Rasmussen and Kutter Crawford should be tough on opposing hitters. Look for this to be a low-scoring, tightly contested contest.

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